What is the likelihood that Russia will launch a nuclear attack?

Vladimir Putin’s forces have only taken control of one major city, Kherson in the south, more than two weeks after launching their attack.

Advances on Kyiv have stalled due to a combination of strong Ukrainian resistance, machinery failure, and a lack of Russian preparedness, while other major hubs such as Kharkiv and Mariupol have held firm despite heavy shelling.

There are fears that Russia’s frustrations will drive the Kremlin to increasingly desperate measures. Russia has already been charged with a slew of war crimes, including the use of cluster bombs and dumb bombs, as well as the targeting of hospitals and nurseries.

Officials in the United States and the United Kingdom have expressed concern that Moscow may be planning to use chemical weapons, and there is also the looming threat of nuclear war.

Will Russia use nuclear weapons?

President Putin has warned other countries not to intervene in Ukraine, comparing Western sanctions against Russia to declarations of war.

“To anyone considering interfering from the outside: If you do, you will face consequences greater than any in history,” he warned. “All pertinent decisions have been made.” “I hope you hear what I’m saying.”

He later issued what many interpreted as a nuclear threat, saying, “Russia, even after the collapse of the USSR and the loss of a significant portion of its nuclear potential, is today one of the most powerful nuclear powers.”

“In addition, it has certain advantages in a number of the most recent types of weapons.” In this regard, no one should be under any illusion that a direct attack on Russia will result in defeat and dire consequences for the potential aggressor.”

On February 28, he directed that Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces be placed on high alert.

The US immediately condemned the move as a “unacceptable escalation,” while Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called Mr Putin’s nuclear alert order “dangerous rhetoric” that had made the world “much more dangerous.”

Experts are unsure what this alert level means, but it most likely means that the crews and infrastructure that control strategic missiles, submarines, and bombers will be more prepared.

“We’ve never heard such announcements before,” said Pavel Podvig, senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research. “My best guess is that he was referring to how command-and-control systems work.

“Normally, the system is not capable of transmitting orders to launch nuclear weapons under normal operating conditions,” he told Defense One, a global security news website. “However, you can elevate it to the point where it is capable.”

According to arms control expert Miles Pomper, President Putin’s move was more of a warning than a genuine threat.

“The enhanced combat alert largely consisted of adding staff to shifts at relevant nuclear weapon sites,” he wrote in The Conversation. The announcement was intended to deter NATO intervention and to intimidate Ukraine.”

How could Russia use nuclear weapons?

When it comes to nuclear weapons, there is a crucial distinction to be made between strategic and non-strategic nuclear weapons.

Strategic nuclear weapons are what most people think of when they hear the phrase “nuclear weapons”: weapons designed to be used on distant targets and capable of wreaking massive amounts of destruction across vast areas.

The atomic bombs dropped by the United States on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II were the only two occasions in history when strategic nuclear weapons were used during armed conflict.

Non-strategic nuclear weapons, also known as tactical nuclear weapons, are typically used in battlefield situations and at much closer range. Even though they are often smaller than strategic nuclear weapons, they can still cause massive devastation. It is more than that.

However, as Dr Matthew Harries, a senior research fellow at the defence think-tank Rusi, points out: “Any use of a nuclear weapon by Putin would be ruinous for him.”

He suggested that President Putin’s actions were intended to scare people. “It’s possible that Russia is preparing a brutal escalation in Ukraine, and this is a’stay away’ warning to the West.” “Or to demonstrate that Putin will not allow himself to be removed from office,” he added.

Dr. Harries, on the other hand, warned of the dangers of escalation, such as “a genuine mistake or individual misjudgment that sparks direct Russia-Nato conflict.”

“Another type is inadvertent escalation through brinkmanship: reckless actions intended to deter but misinterpreted.”

“Then there is deliberate escalation, rather than unintentional escalation.” This could occur, for example, if Putin decides that certain types of Western assistance to Ukraine’s war effort constitute direct military intervention of the type he opposes.

How many nuclear weapons does Russia have?

1,458 are active, which means they are already deployed, 3,039 are available (and can be deployed if necessary), and 1,760 are retired (out of use and awaiting dismantlement).

The United States follows with 5,550 nuclear weapons, 1,389 of which are active, 2,361 are available, and 1,800 have been retired.

China has 350 active nuclear weapons, France has 290, and the United Kingdom has 225.

Pakistan, India, and Israel have nuclear weapons stockpiles of 165, 156, and 90, respectively.