Turkmenistan facing economy challenges as Caspian Sea level declines

• A 2021 study projected a potential further drop of 8 to 30 meters in the Caspian Sea by 2100.
• The Caspian Sea, an inland body of water, borders the Caucasus region and Central Asia.
• The shifting shoreline is noticeable to swimmers in Turkmenbashi, the largest coastal city in Turkmenistan.

On the shores of the Caspian Sea in Turkmenistan, Batyr Yusupov faces a challenge—he can no longer transport his passengers between two ports due to insufficient water levels.

“I used to go between Turkmenbashi and Hazar,” the 36-year-old ferry worker said of the ports separated by a small gulf on Turkmenistan’s coast.

“But we haven’t been able to go there for a year due to the serious shrinking of the Caspian,” he said.

In a coastal city, local beachgoers have noticed the waters receding significantly. However, the impact goes beyond inconvenience for ferry routes or the need to walk further for a swim—it strikes at the core of Turkmenistan’s struggling economy.

The ongoing decline in water levels remains a persistent issue, and while the exact reasons are not entirely clear, scientists attribute it to natural processes intensified by climate change.

A study in 2021 projected a potential further drop of 8 to 30 meters (26 to 98 feet) in the Caspian Sea by 2100. The Caspian Sea, an inland body of water, borders the Caucasus region to the west and Central Asia to the east.

Turkmenistan, a former Soviet republic, shares the Caspian Sea with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Iran, and Russia, all experiencing varying degrees of impact due to these changes.

In the coastal town of Hazar, south of Turkmenbashi, satellite images reveal a significant retreat of the shoreline by approximately 800 meters (half a mile) on both sides, effectively transforming the town, situated at the tip of a peninsula, into an island.

Instead of operating between Hazar and the main port of Turkmenbashi, Yusupov now transports passengers to Gyzylsuw, located between the two points, which is more accessible by boat.

However, the situation there is also challenging, prompting the construction of a new pier due to the inadequacy of the existing one. In Gyzylsuw, rusty boats line the shore, and houses, like Aisha’s, are equipped with stilts to guard against the sea, although they now appear unnecessary as the water seldom reaches the homes even during storms.

In Turkmenbashi, the largest coastal city in Turkmenistan, the shifting shoreline is noticeable to swimmers, with water levels varying from shoulder height to waist level, as reported by a resident, 35-year-old Lyudmila Yesenova.

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