Rishi Sunak faces crucial Rwanda vote after deputy chairmen’s resignation

• Two Conservative deputy chairmen and a ministerial aide resigned to rebel.
• 60 Tory MPs backed rebel amendments, a blow to the Prime Minister’s authority.
• If approximately 30 Tory MPs join opposition parties in voting against the bill, it could face defeat.

On Tuesday, Rishi Sunak faced a critical vote on his Rwanda bill as two Conservative deputy chairmen and a ministerial aide resigned to rebel over the issue. Lee Anderson, Brendan Clarke-Smith, and Jane Stevenson stepped down to support changes they claimed would strengthen the legislation.

In a blow to the PM’s authority, 60 Tory MPs backed rebel amendments. Although No 10 is confident the bill will pass later, preparations for offering concessions are underway.

MPs debated proposed legislation changes on Wednesday, aiming to deter Channel crossings by reviving the government’s plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda. The bill would be put to a vote if it remains unamended.

If approximately 30 Tory MPs join opposition parties in voting against the bill at its final Commons hurdle, it could face defeat. While few Conservative MPs explicitly committed to voting against the bill, at least four, including former ministers Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman, publicly expressed their willingness to do so if improvements are not made.

Michael Tomlinson:

Illegal Migration Minister Michael Tomlinson characterized the Tory rebellion as a sign of “constructive and robust debate,” downplaying the scale of Conservative divisions. He emphasized that nearly every Conservative supporting the bill wanted the scheme to work.

Acknowledging the resignations of two party deputy chairmen and a parliamentary private secretary, Tomlinson expressed regret but emphasized their shared commitment to making the policy effective. He noted that there was only “an inch between us on the Conservative benches.”

The illegal migration minister also confirmed the government was “looking at” new rules for civil servants, expecting the UK to ignore any attempts by international courts to block deportation flights to Rwanda.

Prime Minister Liz Truss:

On Tuesday, tabled amendments to the bill—aimed at preventing international law from being used to block someone’s removal to Rwanda and severely limiting an individual’s ability to appeal their deportation—were defeated. Nevertheless, they garnered significant backing from senior Tories, including former Home Secretary Mrs. Braverman and former Prime Minister Liz Truss.

“Mr. Sunak has, so far, resisted yielding to the demands of his critics on the right of the party – and giving in could risk losing support among more centrist MPs.

However, to appease some of these critics, the government is considering changing the Civil Service Code to include a presumption that emergency injunctions from the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg are ignored.

The move is part of an attempt to quell the Conservative rebellion over Mr. Sunak’s Rwanda legislation.

Even if the government achieves victory, it would come at a political cost, with debates over the issue exposing the extent of divisions within the Conservative Party.

A significant rebellion would also damage the prime minister, who has made the Rwanda policy central to his pledge to stop small boats crossing the Channel.

Miriam Cates, one of those who voted for Tuesday’s amendments, told the BBC she would “potentially” be prepared to vote against the bill.

“But we’ve got 24 hours – that’s a long time in politics. We’ve got more votes tomorrow on more amendments, so we’re not at that position yet where we can make that decision,” she said.

If MPs approve it, the government still faces a challenge to get it through the Lords, where it will likely encounter further opposition.”

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