World experiences long breach of key 1.5°C warming limit

• Scientists emphasize the need for urgent action to reduce carbon emissions to mitigate warming.
• The period from February 2023 to January 2024 saw a warming of 1.52°C.
• The world’s sea surface has reached its highest-ever recorded average temperature.

The EU’s climate service reports that global warming has surpassed 1.5°C across an entire year for the first time. In 2015, world leaders pledged to endeavor to limit the long-term temperature increase to 1.5°C, recognizing its importance in mitigating the most severe impacts. While this inaugural year-long breach doesn’t violate the landmark Paris Agreement, it does edge the world closer to doing so in the long term. Scientists emphasize that urgent action to reduce carbon emissions can still mitigate warming.

“This far exceeds anything acceptable,” Prof Sir Bob Watson, a former chair of the UN’s climate body, told the news.

“Look what’s happened this year with only 1.5C – we’ve seen floods, we’ve seen droughts, we’ve seen heat waves and wildfires all over the world.”

According to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, the period from February 2023 to January 2024 witnessed a warming of 1.52°C. The accompanying graph illustrates how this compares with previous years.

The latest climate warning coincides with the announcement that the Labour Party is abandoning its policy of allocating £28 billion annually to its green investment plan, marking a significant reversal. Additionally, the Conservatives have pushed back on certain key targets as of September.

This signifies that the UK’s two primary parties have reduced the scale of pledges that many climate scientists assert are necessary globally to avert the worst impacts of warming.

Moreover, the world’s sea surface has reached its highest ever recorded average temperature, underscoring the widespread nature of climate records. As depicted in the chart below, this is particularly noteworthy given that ocean temperatures typically do not peak for another month or so.

Science groups slightly differ in their assessments of precisely how much temperatures have increased, but they all concur that the world is experiencing its warmest period since modern records began – and likely for much longer.

Limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels – before humans commenced burning substantial amounts of fossil fuels – has emerged as a crucial symbol of international endeavors to address climate change.

A groundbreaking UN report in 2018 stated that the risks associated with climate change – such as intense heat waves, rising sea levels, and loss of wildlife – were significantly higher at 2°C of warming than at 1.5°C.

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