The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) anticipates nearly average rainfall and warmer nights in Pakistan for July 2024.
According to the synoptic outlook, the neutral phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is projected to continue throughout July 2024. Given the ongoing neutral phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), most regions of the country are expected to experience near-normal rainfall and temperatures this month.
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: Overall a tendency for near normal rainfall is expected in most parts of Pakistan during July 2024. However, northeastern Punjab and lower Sindh may get slightly above normal rainfall.
Monthly Temperature Outlook: Daytime temperatures are predicted to stay near normal across most of the country. However, the northern regions (Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan) are expected to be warmer than usual. Additionally, minimum temperatures will be warmer than normal nationwide, with the most significant deviations in northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and southwestern Balochistan.
Impacts: Extreme, isolated rainfall events may cause flash floods in the mountainous regions of Punjab, AJK, and KP, urban flooding in major metropolitan areas, and hill torrents in Southern Punjab and Balochistan.
Above-normal temperatures in the mountainous areas of Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir could accelerate snowmelt, leading to increased inflows in the Upper Indus and Kabul Rivers, and potentially triggering Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Riverine floods are also a possibility due to extreme hydro-meteorological events over catchments.
Current atmospheric conditions may lead to dust storms and thunderstorms, posing risks to crops, buildings, and infrastructure in the region. On the positive side, sufficient water availability for irrigation and the power sectors is anticipated.
