Returning with a bang: TLP’s journey from banned outfit to political force

LAHORE: The country’s political dynamics have been on a roller coaster ride ever since the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) launched its long march, protests and sit-ins, demanding the ouster of the French ambassador from Pakistan and the release of its detained leader Saad Rizvi.

The violent TLP protests across Punjab and other areas during the last two-and-a-half weeks created many problems for people, especially the commuters and businessmen, thus bringing life to a standstill at several places.

The protests saw clashes between the TLP members and the police, resulting in the deaths of more than half a dozen policemen. Federal Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry then issued a strong statement, condemning the TLP protesters, claiming the banned outfit would be dealt with an iron hand.

However, within a matter of days, the federal government took a U-turn, and Prime Minister Imran Khan formed a steering committee that reached a deal with the TLP and signed an accord with the religious outfit on October 31, agreeing to several conditions put up by the TLP.

On November 7, Islamabad removed the name of TLP from the list of proscribed organisations, and on November 11, the names of TLP Chief Rizvi along with 577 of its activists were cleared from the fourth schedule of Anti-Terrorism Court (ATC), providing a safe passage to the religious outfit and paving the way for it to enter mainstream politics.

However, how the proscribed religious outfit was given a clean chit by the state and its name was removed from the list of banned outfits, has raised many eyebrows and earned the ire of critics and citizens across the country.

Some analysts believe that the PTI is keen on forming an electoral alliance with the TLP in the next general elections to defeat Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP).

Some political pundits and sources within PML-N have confirmed that a group within PML-N, led by Saad Rafique, is also in favour of some sort of electoral alliance or seat adjustment with the TLP.

To get further insight into the prevailing scenario, Bol News spoke to political analysts, defence experts and policy-makers to see what they believe about the future of TLP in Pakistan’s politics.

For political analyst and columnist Yasmeen Aftab Ali, the very fact that a proscribed outfit has been converted into a political party spells disaster. “It is bound to encourage and spread extremism,” she said while talking to Bol News. “How can a group of extremists progressively influence society?”

Many believe that after the dismal failure of the government at every level, playing the religious card is the only option left for it. Some analysts also feel that Islamabad’s possible alliance with TLP in the 2023 polls can substantially damage the PML-N vote bank in Punjab.

But will that happen, or will such an alliance hurt the PTI?

“PTI should have kept in mind before chartering routes to these dangerous waters that it came into power riding on the back of the educated middle class,” said Yasmin.

“People, disillusioned with the then band of politicians, generally preferred to stay away from casting votes, and PTI got the advantage of that in 2018 polls.

She said, “PTI’s alliance with a proscribed outfit like TLP will not go down well with people at all, and the PTI will not only lose votes but will lose damage its image as well. The govt has lost face and people’s faith due to spiralling inflation, loss of jobs, non-friendly business policies, and so many other factors.”

For her, this act of weakness to capitalize on the religious card will be remembered as this government’s legacy. “History is an unforgiving observer,” she said.

Acclaimed political analyst Raza Rumi also endorsed Yasmin’s views and said that the agreement with the TLP is a continuation of the dual policy of appeasement and supporting the extremist groups in Pakistan.

“The government proscribed them just six months ago, called them terrorists and foreign agents. And now they are letting them exist as a legitimate political party,” Rumi recalled.

”This spells disaster for democracy and for the society which will be further radicalized with mainstreaming of a violent narrative on protecting the faith.”

Agreeing with Rumi, analyst Dr Hassan Shehzad, a lecturer at the Department of Media Studies at the International Islamic University, Islamabad, told Bol News that TLP is a reactionary religious force.

“It does not believe in democracy. The high-handed tactics it applies to catch public attention and bring the state to its knees define its future,” he added.

Shehzad maintained that political parties thrive on public support and not on agreements that are shrouded in mystery. He recalled that so far, it [TLP] has two agreements to its credit; one was made with the PML-N government when it blocked Faizabad for weeks.

However, Shehzad continued that the government could not afford to use state power to disperse the TLP protestors. “The only option it had was to enter an agreement to disperse them,” he observed

“It was just like a father agreeing to give his arrogant child more than his due because the latter was about to jump off the roof. Parents make such agreements with the hope that the child will normalize gradually and be able to make rational choices. But the TLP turned out to be a child that refuses to be rational and persists in his arrogance,” he said.

For Shehzad, the state will have to make a second agreement to protect citizens from violence. Though the content of this agreement is shrouded in mystery, as much is clear that under this agreement, parliament will debate some of TLP’s demands but the parliament has not decided that it will. It means non-parliamentary forces are making decisions on behalf of the parliament.

Interestingly, in an obvious fallout of the govt-TLP agreement, other banned terrorist outfits have also started demanding openly that they should be given the same treatment as TLP.

Shehzad believes that it is unlikely that TLP will be able to make a third agreement with any future government.

“True, the party (TLP) has a vote bank, but it will have to shed its violent attitude to woo public support. The current leadership of the party cannot do it even if they want to because the party has been taken hostage by violent elements,” he stated.

“So it is safe to say that the party will gradually lose the political space it may have grabbed now and will be reduced to being a pressure group in the days to come, he added.

Aisha Saeed, a Lahore-based policy analyst, also had similar views about the TLP. While speaking to Bol News, Aisha said, “Religion in Pakistan is a sensitive matter. After intense few days of clashes between the TLP and the government, much of what the TLP wanted from the beginning was granted after serious considerations by the state institutions.”

For Aisha, the acceptance of a far-right party in the future politics of Pakistan will be a hard sell, at least with the youth in Pakistan that makes up a very large vote-bank of the current government.

“The radical tendencies within certain ranks of TLP should remain a concern. Granting a political status to the banned outfit seemed like the only option to avoid further clashes, roadblocks, and bloodshed – but there is no guarantee that similar sit-ins will not take place in the future,” she feared.

The policy analyst also recommended the government go for madrassa reforms. “An important step the government must ensure completion of is the madrassa reform,” she said.

“Though not directly linked to the TLP, a reasonable understanding of religion in such institutions is necessary to counter extremist views, to develop a correct understanding of the political system, and their working with other political parties.”

Aisha maintained that the state needs to ensure that regardless of what understanding the government and the TLP have reached, taking the lawless path will draw more criticism for both. A recent statement by MQM then rightly raises the question of resorting to the political status of other parties and groups.

Aisha believes that by giving leeway to TLP, the concern for the PTI government should be the rise of other far-right and radical groups in Pakistan, seeking political validation in the future of a country trying to get rid of radical and extremist image in the international community.

However, political analyst Ahsan Raza, and defence analyst Lt General (retd) Ghulam Mustafa expressed contrasting views.

For Raza, the future of TLP in urban parts of Pakistan, especially Punjab and Sindh, is bright given the sentiments running in the public about the religion.

“The sentiments have been running high since the 70s when parties made an alliance and ran a campaign against ex-prime minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto,” he recalled.

“PML-N, Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and other religious political parties have exploited these sentiments against PPP,” Raza said, adding that Khadim had a popular appeal among the factions due to it being from the Barelvi school of thought.

“Some people say that agencies schooled the TLP. That is wrong,” said Ahsan.

Agreeing with Raza, Lt General (retd) Ghulam Mustafa told Bol News that TLP got itself recognised as a political force in the last general elections of 2018 and in Sindh it has three provincial assemblies seats as well.

Mustafa said that the school of thought which they are representing is the largest in the country, and the leadership of this school of thought was previously restricted to mosques only. “But with the rise of the TLP they have also jumped into the political arena,” he said.

In Daska NA-75 by-elections the vote bank of TLP played a major role, and it went against PTI, and they lost the by-poll, the defence analyst added.

Mustafa maintained that Allama Tahirul Qadri was previously representing this [Barelvi] school of thought in the public and political arenas, but the TLP has a bigger mandate than Qadri’s Awami Tehreek.

“TLP’s advantage is that it is politically active in all the four provinces. So, TLP openly coming to the political arena as a political force is a major change in Pakistan’s politics,” said Mustafa.

In Punjab, the devotees and followers of Allama Qadri were vocal about the Model Town massacre, and they are likely to find an expression with the TLP stance as they are from the same school of thought with similar beliefs, the defence analyst added.

For Mustafa, TLP has also recognised itself by jamming the roads time and again and now after their deal with the government, the public feels that the TLP point of view has prevailed as they have compelled the government to talk to them on its terms.

When asked that whether the PTI and PML-N are considering a political alliance with TLP in the next elections, Mustafa said, “Who will not want to join hands with them as they have emerged as the fifth largest party in the last general elections and people still remember e huge funeral of Allama Khadim Hussain Rizvi. These things are important in the politics of our country. So, both of these parties will try to form some sort of alliance with TLP.”

“You must not forget that the TLP has a strong presence in Southern Punjab and Northern Punjab. They will surely give a tough time to PPP and PTI in the next elections,” Mustafa predicted.

When asked if he foresees the TLP in the next government, Mustafa said, “Oh yes, two years down the road, if they are properly organised they can make a definite impact in the political scenario of this country.

For Mustafa, the major challenge for TLP is to make and run a political party like a political party, in an organised manner, and if they manage to do that, they can be a major coalition partner in Punjab and at the federal level also and in Sindh, they already have three seats this time as well.

He predicted that in the 2023 elections, TLP will emerge as a major political force.

“In Punjab, they might be second or third,” Mustafa maintained. “If TLP wants to become successful, it has to give up its violent ways,” Mustafa said. ”If I am in Saad’s place, I will hand over those violent elements/individuals to the authorities who killed the nine police officials. That would help a great deal in making enhancing his image amongst the masses, and will his political graph will go up as well,” he concluded.