The lure of independents

The tables were only half turned for the ruling PTI government after this week’s by-polls in 13 districts of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province which saw completion of the first phase of the local bodies’ polls.

Though by-polls results at almost all polling stations were as anticipated, with the religious-political party Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam (JUI) leading PTI by a narrow margin of five seats after securing victory on 23 out of 66 mayoral and tehsil chairmanship seats, the PTI still fancied their chances of gaining an upper hand with plans to lure the ten independent candidates who won in the first phase.

The political pundits feel that despite winning more seats than PTI, the JUI cannot claim success yet in the politics of the province because the PTI has gained a voter base in the southern districts that are usually a stronghold of the religious party.

The worst performer in the first phase is the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) which grabbed just one tehsil seat in Dera Ismail Khan and it doesn’t look promising for the party to perform any better in the remaining districts in the second phase of elections. Contrary to the tall claims and fiery speeches made by party co-chairman Bilawal Bhutto, the PPP have failed to create much impact here.

But all in all, an interesting contest was witnessed in the by-polls. However, the focus remained on the three districts where fresh elections were taking place including mayoral elections in Dera Ismail Khan city, Dara Adam Khal in Kohat division and Bakakhel in Bannu division.Earlier in December, elections were postponed in three tehsils for different reasons. In Dera Ismail Khan city, the targeted killing of the ANP candidate just a day before the elections resulted in the postponement. Security concerns were said to be the reason behind the postponement of elections in Dara Adamkhal and Bakakhel.

Awami National Party (ANP) has maintained its position with seven seats. Similarly, Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN), which is not a popular political party in the KP, at least in the districts where the first phase of local body elections was held; secured three seats.

Jamat e Islami (JI) often known for its strong vote base in Dir and Malakand districts was able to win two tehsil chairman seats, one each in Sarai Norang, Lakki Marwat district and Darazinda, Dera Ismail Khan district.

Dera Ismail Khan is often seen as a stronghold of JUI Fazal. However, PTI has been delivering Maulana Fazalur Rahman’s party tough punches since 2013. In the recent local body elections, PTI candidate Umar Amin Gandapur, brother of federal minister Ali Amin Gandapur secured 63,753 votes to beat his JUI rival Muhammad Kafeel Ahmad by nearly 25,000 votes while the PPP candidate Faisal Karim Kundi came third with 32,788.

However, this result doesn’t show any serious setback for JUI mainly because the Gandapur family congregated their full focus on local elections in their native district Dera Ismail Khan and its adjacent areas. The PTI leaders have been able to address some of the issues and demands of their voters who traded their JUI loyalty because the religious party never delivered on their promises in the district.

“This is just a minor setback for JUI. However, unlike many big names and political parties in KP that have different strategies for local and provincial level politics, the JUI has always focused on the provincial scale instead of giving much importance to local politics,” political analyst Lehaz Ali observed.

“Interestingly, Haider Hoti concentrated locally on Mardan while he used a different strategy for provincial level. Similarly, Pervez Khattak’s focus always remains on Nowshera even when he is leading the contest in the province. Akram Khan Durrani is famous for his strength in Bannu whereas Chief Minister Mahmood Khan is commonly referred to as the CM of Swat because despite being the provincial head of the government, he never lost his focus on his local politics,” Lehaz Ali detailed.

JUI failed to win any of the five seats in Dera Ismail Khan. However, it claimed victory in Bakakhel, another stronghold of the party as its candidate Malak Mamoor Khan defeated ANP’s, Waliullah Khan. But that result doesn’t seem final yet as levelling serious allegations of rigging, Waliullah is weighing his chances of appealing against the results in a hope of re-polling on a number of polling stations in Bakakhel.

Still, the party could not damage the PTI in Domail tehsil where Malik Israr Wazir won against the JUI without much trouble.

Results of the main contest on five polling stations in Peshawar to decide the fate of the mayor seat for the provincial capital brought no surprises as JUI’s Zubair Ali was declared the clear winner in the by-polls as well while PTI’s Rizwan Bangash came runner-up.

Interestingly in Dara Adam Khel, Independent candidate Shahid Bilal was declared the victor with just 1,730 votes. Out of 76,337 registered votes in Dara Adam Khel, only 3,554 votes were polled on election day. Locals put the blame for the low turnout on people not accepting the merger of their semi-tribal area with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

Despite JUI taking lead in the first phase, PTI is confident it has increased chances of winning majority seats in the second phase as the party leadership is focused on its stronghold Malakand division, where it hopes to repeat the clean sweep of 2018.