An anomaly for Latin America

The closely contested, hard fought and divisive elections in one of the South America’s most important countries has widespread regional implications. Far right populist Jair Bolsonaro is pitted up against embattled former President, Lula da Silva, in an election marred by bellicose rhetoric and appeal to popular sentiment. Round two of the votes will take place in a run-off election and judging by the initial polls, it seems as if both sides have a fair chance of getting to the throne in Brasilia.

Prior to the elections, Brazil has been marred by COVID-19 denialism, the incineration of the Amazon rainforest, a struggling economy and widespread unemployment. A member of the BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – and a key component of Mercosur, Brazil has witnessed some of the worst income inequities transpire before the average citizen which requires a complete redressal. The economy which banks itself on soft power such as tourism, sport and diverse cultures was suddenly in the fringes as attention turned towards the rise of leftist leaders such as Gustavo Petro of Colombia and consolidation of existing ones such as Gabriel Boric. In Brazil, however, neo-colonialism still holds strong with respective leaderships believing in the sanctity of forging good ties with Washington D.C. at the expense of national interest.

This is precisely where Lula da Silva came in. He was incarcerated over bribery charges and spent 580 days in prison. Later the Supreme Court ruled that the manner in which the former President’s case was handled was a travesty for justice, quoting judicial biases in the verdict. Da Silva is riding off that reversal of judgement and claims that he was victimised by a right-wing lobby supported by certain elements in the previous Donald Trump administration. He has cast himself as a Messiah who could alleviate troubles for the average Brazilian and promote greater national cohesion through social welfare programs. Most analysts would agree that is precisely why he won the initial stages of the election.

Then comes the notorious Jair Bolsonaro. The current President is known for his divisive and polarising views as evidence of a socially exclusionary agenda. His Islamophobic and anti-immigrant rhetoric, laced with crass capitalism which only benefitted the elite in Brazil, has contributed to great unrest in the country despite initial promise of reform and taking Brazil to new heights from a corruption tainted past. Bolsonaro is still hugely popular in Brazil with a vibrant constituency for his Liberal Party. In the lead up to the run-off vote, Bolsonaro only trailed his rival Da Silva by a small margin which speaks volumes of how from Sao Paulo to Rio de Janiero, the Liberal Party still has considerable traction.

Given the polar opposite parties and candidates with cut throat supporters baying for the other side’s loss, this election is one of the most controversial in Brazil’s history. Many average Brazilians are adamant that they will question the results and contest Da Silva’s ascension to the throne should it happen. Tainting left-wing advocacy in Da Silva’s party is becoming a convenient tool to mask the horrendous policy making of Bolsonaro who chose to deny the suffering of millions of Brazilians despite being under lockdown and feeling the effects of the Ukraine war. Bolsonaro’s close ties with Viktor Orban in Hungary, Donald Trump in the United States and the far-right in Europe has also meant that multilateralism and regionalism for Brazil could be undermined which goes against the principles of Da Silva.

Most analysts with a penchant for assessing realities on merit would claim that Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump’s main rival, was instrumental in having left-wing socialist Lula da Silva released. Other analysts would claim that Bolsonaro had an instrumental role in influencing the Brazilian judiciary which is one of the most corrupt in the world towards framing cases against his political rival. If either case is true, then great social anarchy can transpire in Brazil’s domestic polity with a clear declaration of not accepting the results from Bolsonaro’s supporters threatening to ruin democratic freedoms. As is the case with countries across the world, the failure of populism, despite its initial appeal is one of the reasons for left-wing, pro establishment parties to come into power. Brazil is no different in this regard.

Multilateralism is the key for greater international harmony and Brazil as a member of the BRICS and an influential economic player in Latin America has striven to uphold its central principles. Bolsonaro’s deflection of criticism aimed against Brazil’s increased isolation may once again gain hold if the Liberal Party forms a government at the centre. Da Silva, despite his socialist ideals, is still the best bet for Brazil to breathe again as a responsible state globally as unilateralism will only undermine the international system even further.

Regardless of the result, this election in Latin America is notorious for raising alarm bells on what is in store for one of the continent’s largest and most influential countries. Brazil has plenty to gain from course correction which includes resuscitating its international standing and promoting greater harmony in a region which has been beset by economic difficulties as has largely transitioned towards left-wing ideals in the face of American imperialism. While it is important to engage with the United States, Brazil would wish to strike a balance and that balance is only possible with Da Silva in power.

The writer is an Assistant Research Associate at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute