Are Afghan Taliban sincere with Pakistan?

Islamabad’s concern must have increased manifold due to growing incidents of attacks by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) from across the border, causing casualties to Pakistani soldiers. During the past two weeks, over two dozen soldiers have been killed. In retaliation, Pakistan has used its air assets for the first time in many decades in Khost and Kunar provinces to hit the TTP sanctuaries, killing over 50 terrorists. The Taliban government summoned the Pakistani ambassador to Kabul to register a formal protest. The chief Taliban spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, told Pakistan “not to test the patience of Afghans” and warned of unspecified consequences in the event of similar operations in the future.

With the triumph of the Taliban, most of the strategic thinkers and pro-Taliban political leaders in Pakistan were euphoric about the winds of change flowing in Afghanistan. The initial bonhomie between the Taliban and Pakistan government has evaporated to a great extent. Pakistan had expected that the TTP would be neutralized or roped in with the Taliban in power. Initial attempts for a Taliban-brokered rapprochement with the TTP failed to accrue the desired results. Instead the frequency and intensity of the TTP attacks have increased. This alarming situation calls into question the sincerity of the Taliban towards Pakistan, especially regarding TTP activities and the free hand it enjoyed in Afghanistan.

During the past few months, whatever has happened does not augur well for Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. By protecting the TTP, authorities in Pakistan would construe the Taliban government’s acts as unfriendly while further encouraging the TTP ranks to indulge in terrorist activities in Pakistan. Already political groups and analysts have started suggesting a realistic appraisal by the Pakistan government of the Taliban’s real objectives in protecting the TTP. It is no secret that the TTP owes allegiance to the Taliban supremo Haibtullah Akhund, which by implication means that the latter is duty-bound to protect his TTP followers. Hence, expecting the Afghan Taliban be harsh with the TTP would be naïve.

Since last year, the Taliban’s theocratic order in its second avatar has been projected as mature and moderate in its social interaction. In support of this argument, Taliban apologists maintain that the religious militia has avoided implementing the social code, which was the hallmark of its rule before 9/11. The dress code for women or men’s beards is not coercive anymore. The same is the case concerning the women who are allowed to work in schools and hospitals. Television debates are reasonably free of restrictions, while Taliban officials allow public demonstrations and give a patient hearing to the protestors’ grievances.

By and large, the above prognosis is correct. However, when it comes to reining in the activities of the TTP, the Taliban government’s lax attitude creates many doubts about the latter’s true intentions towards Pakistan. The foremost question arises whether the Taliban regime wants to use the TTP as a proxy against Pakistan.

Despite the Taliban regime’s partisan attitude toward the TTP, Pakistan has been extending support to the regime, whether extending humanitarian assistance at the bilateral or multilateral level or facilitating Afghan transit trade. As an exception, Pakistan has allowed transit of 50,000 tons of Indian wheat assistance through the Pakistan land route. At the diplomatic level, Pakistan has joined the group of countries calling to lift sanctions against Afghanistan’s banks and resumption of regular trade.

Pakistan has limited choices if the emerging humanitarian catastrophe in Afghanistan is an indicator. Approximately 95 percent of the country has reached the poverty line; parents are compelled to sell their children to fend for the remaining family members. A Wall Street Journal report from 19th April states that a father had to sell his teenage son’s kidney to pay for his debt. Such heart-wrenching stories should jolt the world’s conscience before it turns into a humanitarian tragedy.

According to Newsweek, “Afghanistan under the Taliban is very much a country in limbo, with U.S. and U.N. sanctions deterring the functioning of a normal banking system, foreign reserves locked up in the New York Federal Reserve and Afghanistan’s economic prospects looking bleak to non-existent.” These sanctions show that after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the U.S has found much better leverage to control the country without boots on the ground. The U.S has left the “Afghan headache” to the immediate neighbours to fend for. The U.S, on its part, would like to control the banking system of Afghanistan and its future trade.

Pakistan will have to reach out to the immediate neighbours of Afghanistan to find a durable solution for Afghanistan’s economic vows, which, if not addressed, may create a fresh wave of refugees. Iran has already received over a million refugees during the past eight months, and the influx continues unabated. It is also becoming apparent that these refugees do not want to stay in Iran or Turkey, but end up in Europe. Media reports suggest that if the U.S and the West neglected Afghanistan, the influx of Afghans to Europe may far exceed the Syrian refugees. Therefore, immediate neighbours of Afghanistan should immediately convene an international conference to sensitize about the lurching humanitarian crisis to the world, which has been relegated to the background due to the Ukrainian crisis.

Secondly, given the emerging tensions between the Taliban regime and the Pakistan government, the latter will have to go back to the drawing board to reconsider Pakistan’s Afghan policy or, at least, readjust to the emerging realities after renewed attacks from the TTP. The Taliban government’s apparent reluctance to hand over TTP activists or confine them to their camps is further compounding Pakistan’s concerns, requiring urgent dialogue with the Taliban regime about the activities of the TTP. As a confidence-building measure, the Pakistani side may suggest relocating the TTP to the north of Afghanistan with the assurances from the Afghan government that as long as the TTP ranks are in Afghanistan, they would not carry out terrorist activities along the Pakistani border.

The author is a former Ambassador of Pakistan to Iran and UAE. He is currently associated with the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) as Senior Fellow.ccccccccccc