Beware the Ides of March

The expression ‘Beware the Ides of March’ was used in renowned playwright William Shakespeare’s epic “Julius Caesar”. The line is the soothsayer’s message to the Roman Emperor, warning him of his death. The term, however, did not originate with William Shakespeare.

The earliest Roman calendar, which comprised ten months beginning with Martius (March), was believed to have been created by King Romulus around 753 B.C. At that time, dates were expressed in relation to the lunar phase of the month using three markers: Kalends (Kal), Nones (Non) and Ides (Id).

The first phase of the moon, the new moon, was denoted by Kalends and signified the first day of the month; the first quarter moon fell on either the fifth or seventh day of the month and was referred to as Nones; the full moon fell on either the 13th or 15th day of the month and was referred to as Ides. March 15 — the Ides of March — initially marked the first full moon of a new year.

During the late Roman Republic, a new year’s festival was held on the Ides of March in which people would gather a mile outside of Rome on the Via Flaminia by the banks of the Tiber River. Participants celebrated with food, wine and music and offered sacrifices to the Roman deity Anna Perenna for a happy and prosperous new year.

In 46 B.C., after consulting with the Alexandrian astronomer Sosigenes, Julius Caesar reformed the Roman calendar by adding ten days to the 355-day year and named it after him as the Julian Calendar. The calendar instituted January 1 as the first day of the New Year (beginning in 45 B.C.) and introduced a leap year after every four years. Shortly thereafter, he was granted the title Dictator Perpetuus or “dictator for life.” Apprehensive of Caesar’s increasing power and monarchical leanings, a group of Roman senators stabbed the ruler to death on March 15, 44 B.C.—forever linking the Ides of March with the assassination of Julius Caesar.

This year, the severe effects of the Ides of March are visible globally; Ukraine is in flames while the threat from the global pandemic COVID-19 persists. The price of oil is plummeting high while stocks continue to tumble.

Closer to home, the Ides of March spells trouble in numerous avenues. Politically, there have been a series of long marches, one in Sindh, sponsored by the ruling party at the center while another from Karachi to Islamabad, led by parties in the opposition, hoping to topple the sitting government. A requisition has been submitted by the antagonists to run the gamut of a “No Confidence Motion” against Imran Khan and chances are that it will be decided in March.

Terror attacks continue to wreak havoc on precious lives and property, but more ominously, our eastern neighbour India has infiltrated Pakistan’s airspace and territorial waters with impunity.

On March 1, the Pakistan Navy (PN) tracked an Indian submarine and foiled its attempt to enter the waters of the country. According to the military’s media wing, the Indian submarine, the “latest Kalvari-class vessel”, was tracked and intercepted by anti-submarine warfare units of the PN. Apparently, the hostile sub was lurking to gather information pertaining to the ongoing Pakistan Navy war games — Seaspark-22. The Indian vessel, a diesel-electric attack submarine, was spotted by maritime surveillance assets when it came to snorkelling depth to recharge its batteries.

On March 9, an Indian cruise missile BrahMos, which was jointly manufactured by Russia and India, entered Pakistan from India and crash landed near Mian Channu. Pakistan registered a formal diplomatic complaint with New Delhi. Two days later, Indian Ministry of Defence made a cock and bull story that the incident had occurred due to “accidental firing” caused by “a technical malfunction” in the “course of routine maintenance”. India also specified that “while Sirsa, Haryana—from where Pakistan claimed the missile was launched—does not have a BrahMos Missile base, the missile systems are operated from specialized trucks and can be moved from one location to another. Such missile tests usually happen on the Eastern flank and from the Andaman and Nicobar command.”

Pakistan’s National Security Advisor, commented: “In a nuclear environment, such callousness and ineptitude raises questions about the safety and security of Indian weapon systems,” adding that already multiple incidents of uranium theft in India had been reported and its citizens “have even been arrested while smuggling uranium in the recent past”.

Instead of twiddling its thumbs, Pakistan needs to seriously take up the infiltration by the Indian Cruise missile with the UN Security Council because if it had been equipped with a war head – nuclear or conventional – the result would have been disastrous.

Was it ominously probing Pakistan’s air defence system a day prior to the induction of the new J-10C fighter aircraft attained from China? India has been browbeating Pakistan after its acquisition of Rafael fighter aircraft and S-400 Triumf Missile Defence system. Cognizance must be taken of Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s statement last February that Indian BrahMos Missiles could target Pakistan. Questions have been raised as to why the infiltrating missile was not blown into smithereens the moment it violated Pakistani airspace, instead of letting it ingress 124 kilometres. At that stage, it was not known whether it was equipped with a warhead. If India was testing Pakistan’s reaction, perhaps it achieved its end.

Contrast this with China. When the Indian Ministry of Defence of approached its apex court seeking funds to build a 1200 kilometres road to deploy its BrahMos Missiles closer to China in the Arunachal region, China directly issued a warning that it possesses technology, which could target Indian missile systems as soon as they were launched against it and would be destroyed.

While the month of March plods on, serious ramifications appear to be in store for Pakistan – from possible government change at the centre as well as in Punjab to some more irresponsible adventurism from our eastern neighbour. Perhaps the soothsayer’s message “Beware the Ides of March” suits the current situation of the country!

The writer is a former Group Captain PAF and an author