Birth pains of a multi-polar world

“Our world is in peril and paralysed. Geopolitical divides are undermining the work of the Security Council, undermining international law, undermining trust and people’s faith in democratic institutions, undermining all forms of international cooperation. We cannot go on like this. . . . At one stage, international relations seemed to be moving towards a G-2 world. Now, we risk ending up with a G-Nothing.” António Guterres UNGA 77, September 20, 2022.

The 77th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA 77) commenced on September 13, 2022 at a particularly precarious moment for international peace and security. This is the first entirely in-person General Assembly meeting since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. Heads of state, heads of government and top diplomats are attending from around the world which provides an excellent opportunity for important bilateral meetings of leaders on the side-lines of the UNGA.

This session is hugely significant as it is being held at a time when navigating through a fractured and potentially volatile geopolitical environment is becoming increasingly difficult, with openly confrontational posturing of the United States against China including the China Containment Act and the recent visit of Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, to Taiwan. The international political and economic scenario is further complicated by the Ukraine war, in which China is perceived as a Russian supporter.

Other conflicts and crises around the globe like Afghanistan, Kashmir, Palestine, the Iranian nuclear programme, food security, poverty alleviation, achieving Sustainable Development Goals and continued sluggish economic growth after the devastation of Covid-19. And the emergence of devastating results of climate change as witnessed during the unprecedented floods of biblical proportions in Pakistan, inundating one third of the country and affecting 33 million people. All these issues will require foresight, flexibility and fresh thinking from countries, and multilateral organisations alike. The new contemporary style of hypercompetitive geopolitics and overtly hostile relations between different poles of power would have to be toned down to save the multilateral system and give the UN space to find peaceful negotiated settlements of the issues plaguing the world today.

The UN Secretary-General António Guterres, just before the commencement of UNGA 77, warned that it was a time of ‘great peril’ and stressed that, “geostrategic divides are the widest they have been since at least the Cold War.” He reiterated his call for sober contemplation and a substantive and solution based approach in a world where geopolitical divides are putting everyone in jeopardy.

The phenomenal strength and speed of the rise of China has fundamentally altered the rules of interstate engagement not only for the developing world, but also for the developed and politically established powers including the US and Europe. With its strong and sustained economic power which gives it the requisite strength to pursue its geopolitical and geostrategic agenda, China’s political outreach has increased many fold. Meanwhile, dawdling growth and mounting domestic pressures has sapped the ability of developed economies to maintain their authority on the global platform. In this state of uncertainty and geopolitical flux, and in the face of potential surprises and reversals, only the agile and the adaptable are most likely to thrive. Whether the UN will be able to uphold its own resolution that endorses the one China principle and reiterates that Taiwan is an integral part of China seems a remote possibility only. Any moves to urge the US to remain on the right side of international law in case of Taiwan is also too much to expect from a weakening institution.

What, if anything, can be done at the UNGA about the situation in Ukraine remains to be seen. Any formal action taken related to the war, either to help manage the consequences of the invasion or hold Russia accountable could be counterproductive as both sides are bent on pushing for military victory. António Guterres warned at a pre-UNGA press conference that the chances of a peace deal in the near term were nil. This is a wartime General Assembly where both sides are angling for strengthening their positions and not to talk peace.

On the other hand, while there is overwhelming support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and criticism of Russia by the western world, the majority of Africa, Asia and Latin America have expressed frustration that they are being pressured to take sides on the war in Ukraine, while the war is pulling attention away from their countries’ problems. How far does the geopolitical fall-out from the Russian invasion, which has largely pitted Russia against the West, spread through the UN system is any ones guess. We are already seeing new fissures and deepening of old grievances including among members of the European Union. What the anticipated, and perhaps unanticipated, ways in which the Ukraine war and the US-China competition may shape business at the United Nations during the current UNGA session will only become apparent after the session ends.

Pakistan has always proactively participated and played an important role at the UN which is universally acknowledged. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in his speech to the UNGA focused on the challenges faced by Pakistan in wake of the recent catastrophic floods due to climate change. He shared Pakistan’s perspective on regional and global issues of concern. Pakistan is a strong supporter of multilateralism and believes that the UN should play a central role in the protection and promotion of world peace.

As the current Chair of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation Council of Foreign Ministers and as the current Chair of the largest international grouping of developing countries – the Group of 77 – Pakistan should effectively represent the Global South to promote international peace and security, sustainable development and human rights for all, in accordance with the principles of the UN Charter.

The Global Food Security Summit jointly organised by the African Union, EU and the US, and a closed-door leaders gathering on the UN Climate Change Conference (COP-27), which brought together select world leaders to discuss climate change, proved to be an important platform to propose effective measures required at the global level for addressing the two most pressing challenges confronting the world, particularly the countries imminently affected by climate change and food insecurity.

The UNGA 77 forum has been instrumental in providing Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif the opportunity to convey to the world leaders the vital issues the country is grappling with and to request assistance.

The writer is a former Ambassador to China, the EU and Ireland. She covers a variety of issues including political, social, environmental, developmental, strategic and economics