China versus the US

The US-China trade war has now transformed into a new Cold War, partly because of Washington’s assertive stance on the perennial issue of Taiwan and due to Beijing’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine war, besides many other divergences.

Recently, a four-star US Air Force official General Mike Minihan, the head of the Air Mobility Command, warned of a conflict with China as early as 2025 – most likely over Taiwan. He urged his commanders to push their units to achieve maximum operational battle readiness this year. The last week’s shooting of a Chinese balloon over the US territory further somehow aggravated the situation leading to the cancellation of the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s planned visit to China aimed at easing bilateral tensions. Beijing claimed the balloon was for meteorological purposes but had gone astray, while Washington asserted that it was on a reconnaissance mission.

This incident reminds one of the CIA’s U-2 spy plane episode involving Gary Powers – an American pilot whose plane was shot down while flying a spy mission in the Soviet Union’s airspace. On May 1, 1960, the American pilot’s plane departed from Badaber military airbase in Peshawar. It was to be the first attempt ‘to fly all the way across the Soviet Union…but it was considered worth the gamble…traversing important targets [that were] never before photographed’. The US soon learned of the disappearance of Gary Powers over the Soviet Union. They issued a cover statement that claimed a ‘weather plane’ had strayed off course after its pilot had ‘difficulties with his oxygen equipment’. Ironically, the CIA officials were not aware that the ‘plane crashed almost fully intact and the Soviets recovered its equipment’. Powers was interrogated extensively by the KGB for several months before he made a confession and a public apology for his role in espionage as the ominous clouds of the Cold War were hovering over South Asia – the perils of which are still felt.

Coming back to the US-China situation. Despite their belligerent tones in the public, bilateral ties have not ruptured or damaged beyond repair. In their book titled ‘By all means necessary: How China’s resource quest is changing the world’, Elizabeth Economy and Michael Levi assert that “the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) steadily builds strength and scouts overseas bases, preparing for a day when it, not the United States, will police the distant lands and narrow sea lanes through which much of China’s and the world’s critical resource trade flows”. While this was a prediction nearly a decade ago, thus far China has only one overseas naval base in Djibouti, while this tiny African port state hosts eight overseas military bases including those of the US, France and Japan.

By analysing the military prowess of these two global powers, it is apparent that experts have been exaggerating Chinese military strength as well as Beijing’s intentions. On-the-ground situation and existing facts do not support the narrative regarding Chinese military superiority, particularly beyond the Chinese shores. For example, a report authored by researchers at the New York-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft has stated that the US has 750 overseas military bases. The report asserts that “to put the 750 US military bases abroad in perspective, there are nearly three times as many military base sites as there are US embassies, consulates, and missions worldwide”. This stark contrast clearly indicates how much the US prioritises whether to resort to diplomatic channels or use its military superiority for promoting its foreign policy goals.

At the same time, the report also adds that the 750 US military bases worldwide are more than three times the number of overseas bases held by all other countries of the world combined. The United Kingdom reportedly has a total of 145 foreign base sites. The rest of the world’s militaries combined likely control between 50 to 75 more, including Russia’s two to three dozen foreign bases. According to the same study, there are serious implications of the policy of having too many overseas bases. The global presence of the US military beyond the US shores cost American taxpayers over US$ 55 billion per year.

No doubt China has emerged as a global power, which many argue will surpass the US. But many in the US and elsewhere believe otherwise. To begin with, China is a huge country both in terms of population and geography. With over 1.4 billion people, about 19 per cent of the global population, it is the world’s most populous country. With a total area of 9,596,960 square kilometres, spanning five geographical time zones and bordering 14 different countries, China is the fourth largest country in the world after Russia, Canada and the US. Prudent policies coupled with timely reforms and the supply of cheap labour have truly turned China into the ‘world’s factory’. Therefore, it is no surprise that China is the world’s second-largest economy after the US and is also the world’s largest trading nation. China is the largest trading partner of 124 countries, while the US is a major trading partner of 56 nations. China has the world’s largest foreign-exchange reserves and is also the world’s leading exporter, manufacturer, energy consumer, and has the biggest auto market.

Given all these highly impressive statistics, can China challenge and surpass the US, particularly in the military domain? This is one of the most interesting and most debated subjects in the US policy circles. In his authoritative book titled ‘China Goes Global: The Partial Power’, eminent expert on China, Shambaugh comprehensively examines China’s global emergence and rules out the possibility that China will be on the horizon anytime soon to challenge the US or its western allies. He argues that China is not a global power as is conventionally believed. At best, he asserts, China is a partial power with far less influence in global political, economic, military and cultural spheres.

As highlighted in the beginning of this piece, in terms of military superiority, the US is unrivalled. BR Posen in his article titled ‘Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of US Hegemony’ argues that “one pillar of the US hegemony is the vast military power of the United States”. The writer further elaborates that this power is because “the United States enjoys command of the commons – command of the sea, space, and air”. Hence, for China or any other global power, it seems a distant dream to match the US in these three arenas as it has an overwhelming dominance and monopoly.

In his 2018 book, ‘Unrivalled: why America will remain the world’s sole superpower’, Professor Beckley argues that “the United States has more than twice the wealth and military capabilities of any other nation”.

Only time can tell whether China has the political will and wherewithal to surpass the US, and whether it will be capable of doing so. As the great sage Shakespeare has said, “O time! You must untangle this not I; it is too hard a knot for me to untie.”

The writer holds a PhD from Massey University, New Zealand and heads the Political Science Department at the University of Malakand