CPEC’s dimensions

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has gained momentum in the news. Chinese and Pakistani officials recently discussed the project, including Afghanistan in the equation. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its prospects were discussed in detail between China’s special envoy on Afghanistan Yue Xiaoyong and Foreign Secretary Sohail Mahmood in Islamabad. According to the statement, “In the context of regional connectivity, both sides exchanged views on extension of CPEC to Afghanistan to promote economic development and prosperity.” Matters related to the political and security issues in Afghanistan were also discussed. Pakistan remains committed to seeing Afghanistan become a prosperous country that continues to build relations with regional players.

Now that a new dimension has been created for CPEC by including Afghanistan, the Chinese officials have to ensure that the Pakistani side of the project is completed as per the timeline. Initially, there were delays in China’s Xinjiang province. However, only three out of fifteen projects worth USD 300 million have been completed in Gwadar and nearly a dozen projects worth USD 2 billion are still in the pipeline. China will be reviewing its investments in Pakistan related to finances and human resources. The terrorist attack at the University of Karachi that took the life of three Chinese teachers has also sent China into introspection over CPEC’s future.

Chairman of Pakistan’s Senate Defence Committee, Senator Mushahid Hussain, commented, “The Chinese confidence in Pakistan’s security system’s ability to protect their citizens and their projects is seriously shaken.” Foreign Secretary Sohail Mahmood and China’s Assistant Foreign Minister Wu Jianghao co-chaired the meeting. The participants of the meeting emphasized projects related to the industry and IT along with socio-economic benefits the CPEC will provide.

A major project akin to that of the CPEC will take its time to complete. The hiatus is expected to occur keeping in mind the complexity of the project and its various phases. The project worth USD 62 billion is the largest initiative in Pakistan’s history that is moving forward, even if some hiccups occur along the way. The inclusion of Afghanistan in CPEC, however, will create friction between India and Pakistan as the two countries have never had smooth sailing when it comes to geopolitics or economics.

If India is viewing CPEC with raised eyebrows, then the United States has also remained a critic. Washington believes that China will exercise its power in the Indian Ocean by using Gwadar. Where the US has cautioned Pakistan about its engagement with China, it is Beijing that has challenged the US for backing India. The US has accused China of pursuing debt trap diplomacy. A similar case was seen in Sri Lanka which has become indebted due to China’s investment.

Under the CPEC, the trade activities of Pakistan have grown to new heights. The export of copper from Pakistan to China was nearly USD 50 million. This figure was USD 410 million in 2020. The BRI is becoming a strategic game changer in regional connectivity promoting infrastructural development and green industrialization.

The world economy is dwindling because of the economic policies implemented by the West – mainly the US and the European Union. The unilateral sanctions against Russia are also a case in point. The Central Asian states are eyeing to move away from the US radar and have become pivots for the BRI. Interestingly, Uzbekistan has emerged as a transport hub in the region. Earlier, in August, reports confirmed that China and Uzbekistan have confirmed the construction of a railroad linking the two countries. The plan has remained in the pipeline for nearly twenty-five years. The railroad, when completed, will enhance trade and transport from Central Asia to Turkey leading to Europe. If CPEC will increase regional connectivity, it will also accentuate economic activities.

The road project is estimated to create nearly 50,000 jobs. Nearly 94 percent will be offered to Pakistanis. Out of the 1.2 million jobs created by the CPEC projects, nearly 33 percent will be available for Pakistan. It is expected that from 2015 to 2030, more than 2.3 million jobs will be created which will bring 2.5 percent growth to Pakistan’s GDP annually. Various projects including gas pipelines, oil, seaports, roads, railroads, and optical fibre among others have been carried out and are in process.

Recently, Pakistan’s Ambassador to China, Moin ul Haque said, “The CPEC is one of the most important flagship projects of the five corridors launched under the Belt and Road Initiative. Half of its projects have already been executed. The second component of the CPEC is infrastructure, highways, waterways, and bridges, which have been built across Pakistan, improving the communication and road infrastructure.” He further added that the government is developing special economic zones and encouraging relocation of Chinese industries to Pakistan not only to help the domestic market, but also to the region and exporting to other countries.

In a recent interview with the China Economic Net (CEN), Federal Minister for Planning, Development and Special Initiatives, Ahsan Iqbal said, “CPEC connects Pakistan with BRI of China and through BRI and CPEC, Pakistan can be linked with the global supply chains more easily. We hope that when the special economic zones in each province are ready, they will attract considerable investment in the relocation of Chinese industry that will bring more job opportunities in the region and also help Pakistan move up on the industrialization part.” When commenting on the regional connectivity prospects of CPEC, Iqbal said, “As I see it in coming years, there will be greater cooperation between Pakistani and Chinese enterprises. We hope that this cooperation will fully blossom in all areas and there will be greater connectivity between China and Pakistan.”

During a recently held webinar on green development under CPEC, Nong Rong, Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan shared, “Five wind power projects have been completed under CPEC with a total capacity of 300 megawatts, and another 300-megawatt solar power project has been completed.” CPEC has initiated sustainable development projects in Pakistan based on green energy.

CPEC began spreading its wings over the South Asian region engaging regional players to emerge as economic trade zones. Time will tell how the CPEC will create harmony among the stakeholders. Moreover, China will need to identify the needs and concerns of all the countries on board to create a harmonious blend of trade and economic activities.

The writer is a fiction writer, columnist and an author