Curious case of cipher

Conspiracy, intervention and interference are some of the words used multiple times by the government. Such are the hundreds of questions raised on the cipher that has become the base of the government becoming dismissive and the opposition becoming aggressive on the current controversy of forced regime change in Pakistan. Many think that it is a normal “do more” American ‘dictat’. Others think that the big bully treatment of its small dependent counterpart is not normal. There are endless debates on this serial political melodrama. With time, instead of fading, it has become even more striking. It has been struck off by some but keeps striking back in some form or the other. This hide and seek game in the present day tumultuous political horizon is creating high tension and anxiety in all those seeking answers.

The ambiguity remains. The uncertainty persists. The lack of clarity disturbs. Hardly anybody knew what a cipher was before the cipher from the US became notorious. Popular. Nobody had used it for purposes of debates or discourse. Now it is a common word. To explain it fully let us use decipher, a word we are more familiar with. Decipher means to make something more clear and understandable. That implies that a cipher would be something that ordinary people will not be able to understand. Precisely. Cipher is a coded language that only people with a decoding knowledge can decode. This is used to protect diplomacy and international relations. Foreign embassies cognizant of the sensitive nature of the political relations between two countries would cipher messages to prevent leakages that can cause secrets to be leaked. The cipher from Pakistan’s ambassador posted in America was thus a normal diplomacy transmission vehicle. If it was normal then why the hue and cry? The controversy of conspiracy rose and is still rising due to at least six unanswered questions regarding this curious case of the cipher:

1. Why the flurry of local Embassy meetings with the main characters?

While foreign embassy staff does meet the opposition leaders, the back to back meetings with the main people of the controversy just before the vote of no-confidence raises many questions. On 16 February 2022, dissenting PTI MNA Noor Alam met with American diplomat Peter Joseph in Islamabad. American Consul General in Karachi Mark Stroh’s meeting with PPP Chairperson Bilawal Bhutto took place on 24th February. Mark Stroh also met with MQM officials. Furthermore, William K. Makaneole, American Consul General in Lahore, met with PML-N and PPP politicians. He also met Aleem Khan on 7th March 2022. American political officer, Andrea Hillyer, met with PDM officials as well as dissident Raja Riaz. Other meetings of note include Makaneole’s meeting with Hamza Shahbaz on 3rd March 2022, the day Donald Lu met the Pakistani ambassador in U.S and issued the threat. Not a coincidence by any stretch of imagination.

2. Why was the cipher hidden from the Foreign Minister/Prime Minister?

This is perhaps the most important question. Pakistan’s ambassador to the US sends a cipher to the Foreign Office regarding his meeting with Donald Lu, the Under Secretary of State of America. The cipher reaches the Foreign Office and disappears. The contents of the cipher are all about the foreign policy, Pakistan’s international relations etc and the Foreign Secretary, instead of sharing it with the Foreign Minister, shared it with “somebody else”. This cipher contained a blatant interference in Pakistan’s internal affairs as verified by the National Security Committee (NSC) meeting on 31st March 2022. Why was it hidden from the Prime Minister whose name was the central character of this cipher? Withholding a threat to the sitting prime minister’s rule is no joke.

3. Why did it mention that the decision of the Prime Minister to go to Russia was made without the consent of all stakeholders?

The very fact that Donald Lu blamed the Prime Minister for going to Russia without taking all the stakeholders into consultation is itself a misinformation. The Prime Minister had consulted ex diplomats and the security agencies and there was this unanimous consent given to continuing with the Russian visit. Why was the blame laid on Imran Khan? Who was trying to make the PM the scapegoat? Who was trying to chummy up to the U.S and showing the PM as the villain?

4. Why did the first National Committee Meeting declare it a blatant interference in Pakistan’s affairs?

Explanations from the present government included total disowning of the cipher calling it non-existent to owning up and saying it does not mention conspiracy. The security agencies initially downplayed it. When asked how they concluded that it was not a conspiracy, their latest explanation is that their opinions are based on evidence and data. However, they never showed that evidence in any meeting or press interaction. What they cannot deny is that the words “blatant interference” were used. Even if you look at the two words, blatant means vulgar and offensive and interference means obstruction or as in sports, it implies an act of illegally hindering an opponent from catching a forward pass or a kick

5. Why was demarche given to the US embassy?

If it was a regular reprimand, why was a demarche issued with the consent of the National Security Committee? Demarche is a word coined by the diplomatic community and referring to a strongly worded warning by one country to another for some act of interference that crosses the legal and diplomatic norm. If the cipher was routine, why was this harsh action taken?

6. Why is there so much reluctance to establish an enquiry commission on it?

The ex-speaker wrote to the Chief Justice but didn’t get a response. The President wrote to the Chief Justice and was met with silence. The government has said they have no objection to an enquiry, but nothing has happened. The establishment says that they will cooperate in any enquiry, but have already said there was no conspiracy. The stakeholder’s attitude of denial, avoidance, deflection, rejection, is itself the fuel to the controversy behind this curious case of the cipher. There is an urgent need for the Chief Justice to establish an independent commission to quash the pain from becoming a festering wound. As Ravi Shankar said, “Unanswered questions ferment in the mind and become violence.”

The writer is a columnist, consultant, coach, and an analyst