Deciphering President Xi’s message

The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) started in Beijing on 16th October, 2022, and will end on 23rd October, 2022, after reviewing the work report for the last five years presented by President Xi and confirming key appointments in the Polit Bureau and the Polit Bureau Standing Committee. The 20th CPC National Congress is extremely important as it is a compass to gauge the future orientation of China, not only in domestic policy but foreign and strategic policy as well. Therefore, the Congress will be a defining moment for politics, policy and the world.

This year’s congress marks the party’s founding in 1921 and has gained particular significance as Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to be granted an unprecedented third term as party leader and will further cement his power. With Xi’s reappointment widely forecast, attention needs to be focused on a range of contested issues that will shape China’s trajectory for the next five years and reverberate around the world. A comprehensive appraisal and analysis of the Congress can only be undertaken once the Congress concludes and names and appointments of all major posts become clear. However, indications of the future orientation of China can be deciphered from the inaugural address of President Xi at the opening session of the Congress.

The overwhelming theme of the 20th CPC National Congress was, “Hold high the great banner of Socialism with Chinese characteristics, for a New Era, carry forward the great founding spirit of the Party, strive in unity to build a modern socialist country in all respects and advance the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts!” It is important to focus on key issues under the umbrella to emerge from Xi’s political report and CCP’s policy priorities for next five years.

Although the leadership of the 96 million-member CCP is concentrated in the 25-member Politburo, within which real power rests with seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, supreme power indisputably lies with CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping. Since his rise to power, Xi has been declared China’s ‘Core Leader’ and ‘Xi Jinping Thought’ is now enshrined within Chinese constitution, elevating him nearly to the same level as Mao Zedong within CCP’s ideology and history. Mao laid the foundation of People’s Republic China in 1949 and Xi has been chosen to ensure the rejuvenation of the motherland and achieving its second centennial goal by 2049 when it marks 100 years of establishment of New China.

There were no policy announcements in the address which largely remained a review of the current state of play, particularly in the international domain which could be attributed to Xi’s desire to project stability. Key messages of 20th Congress are, however, indicative of the future priorities of China both in domestic and international domain.

President Xi’s first emphasis was on developing a strong economic base enabling the government to deliver on the uplift of people and develop a modern and prosperous society for which he elaborated his vision. He expressed firm resolve to achieve rejuvenation of motherland by 2049 which means the complete reunification of all the Islands with the mainland including Taiwan thus achieving the second centennial goal of China. His focus remained squarely on fair distribution of resources among the people, further developing socialism with Chinese characteristics, education, particularly in science and technology for high quality development, reform of the armed forces to make them lean and technologically advanced to meet any unforeseen threats and ensuring the unity of command and the Communist Party of China as it approaches the goal of rejuvenation.

Xi celebrated the party’s continued efforts to eradicate COVID as a major achievement, insisted the approach of zero COVID policy had ‘protected people’s safety and health to the highest degree’. He highlighted as success his graft crackdown, stating that the anti-corruption campaign had eliminated ‘serious latent dangers’ within the Communist Party, the military and the state.

On the international front, Xi delivered direct and unambiguous message stating that China wants to play an active part in the reform and development of the global governance system and uphold true multilateralism, promote greater democracy in international relations, and work to make global governance fairer and more equitable. Xi announced that China would ‘actively participate in global governance on climate change’. He reiterated that China was opposed to a ‘Cold War mentality’ in international diplomacy, but made no mention of rising competition and tensions with the United States. Interestingly, he made no mention of the Ukraine war and stressed that China would continue to engage with the international community and work to secure appropriate recognition. The policy of One Country, Two Systems would be adhered to over the long term and China would remain committed to law-based governance in Hong Kong and Macao, and ensure that the central government exercises overall jurisdiction over the two regions and continues to strive for peaceful reunification, but reserved the option of taking all measures necessary to complete reunification of China.

Xi stressed that China would contribute its share to building an open global economy that delivers greater benefits to all people and engagement with open global economy is also achieved by promoting high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Achieving goals for the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army in 2027 and more quickly elevating people’s armed forces to world-class standards were strategic tasks for building a modern socialist country in all respects; and China was committed to strengthening and modernising its armed forces.

China has changed dramatically under Xi’s now decade-long rule. It remains to be seen how Xi Jinping will use his undisputed position as one of the thought leaders of China with a probable strengthening of his position. During Xi’s time in power, China has also become more nationalist and more prosperous with the people showing 91 percent confidence and trust in the leadership. It is also true that with internal progress and stability and confidence in external security, China has become more assertive of territorial claims in the East and South China Seas.

China has displayed its military capabilities both during border skirmishes with India and the recent standoff in the Taiwan Straits. China’s communication, big data and AI capabilities are unmatched leading to heightened concerns about China’s peaceful rise and its military ambitions. While the Chinese are sagacious and farsighted people with legendry patience, they are also a civilisational power and seek their rightful place in the world washing away the humiliation of one hundred years under occupation. They like strong leaders who can safeguard their interests specially in the face of the emerging geostrategic and geo-economic flux and the efforts of the West led by the United States to contain China and delay if not disrupt its rise.

How a strengthened and empowered Xi addresses the international and regional issue will have an impact on all nations including South Asian nations. Pakistan enjoys an all-weather strategic cooperative partnership with China and as Xi said, ‘Iron Brothers’. President Xi has invested a lot of money and energy in strengthening relationship with Pakistan, including the launching of the CPEC project which is considered the buckle of BRI and Gwadar Port its Crown Jewel. However, the real test of the friendship will come during the coming three decades as China approaches its target of achieving the rejuvenation of the motherland and the tensions with the West further heighten. This would also put pressure on Pakistan, particularly by the West, to reassess its relationship with China.

Our lack of focus on China and particularly CPEC for the last few years has caused concern and apprehensions on the Chinese side. Our policy makers need to carefully consider the implications for Pakistan’s socio-economic development if CPEC projects and the SEZs are not completed and operationalised on priority. Pakistanis has a special relationship with the Chinese as the Indians have with the United States and Russia, and one should strengthen it further without compromising the relations with the rest of the world. It may be a difficult balancing act, but Pakistan has been successfully doing it for the last 75 years and hope it will continue do so successfully in the future as well.

The writer is a former Ambassador to China, the EU and Ireland. She covers a variety of issues including political, social, environmental, developmental, strategic and economics