Future of China-Russia alliance

Russia under the regime of President Vladimir Putin has managed to isolate itself in a unique manner; Europe too is hesitant to accept Russia in its fold. The Caspian states namely Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan also took a bitter pill to swallow keeping in mind how they feel about Russia.

Recently, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov wrote an article for ‘Foreign Affairs’ titled “The Caspian – a unique region of neighbourliness”. The write-up was nothing less than the painful supplications of an aging father to woo his errant sons back home. “The importance of the Caspian Region for the Russian Federation is determined by its strategic location in the centre of Eurasia,” he wrote. Lavrov borrowed some American terms like ‘sustainable development’ and ‘trust and cooperation’ to appeal to its neighbours to stand with him and work for peace and prosperity. “We believe all Caspian issues should be resolved solely by consensus of the five coastal states. Extra-regional forces should not be allowed to exert a negative influence.”

Though the three nations, apart from Iran and Russia, were founded in 1991 after the disintegration of Soviet Union, the Russian Foreign Minister thought that they should have been mindful of working for formation of ‘Caspian interstate oil company, Caspian interstate bank of economic cooperation,’ in the light of their discussions held in Tehran months after their inception in 1992.

Lavrov failed to understand that it was a different time back then. These nations have broken free from its past limitations. For instance, Iran has come close to dictating Azerbaijan on how to use its territory and to not build its embassy in Israel. Kazakhstan is now standing in line to be a part of Europe, having 40 percent of its external trade with the European Union (EU).

Like Lavrov, the Russian President Vladimir Putin too prefers citing past references. Like a western or eastern populist leader, his public talks are lengthy and throbbing with emotion. The Russian glory Putin refers to is a thing of the past. It seems that Putin is trying to drive Russia forward while looking into the rear-view mirror.

Nevertheless, China has still managed to form an alliance with Russia. The Chinese President Xi Jinping was very cautious while hosting President Putin during Winter Games in February this year. Though the game was boycotted by the US and allies, their athletes took part. Both Xi and Putin released statements to convey to the international media about their strong friendship. Putin minced no words in condemning the American intervention in the Indo-Pacific Ocean, but he disliked the alliance between Australia, UK and the US (AUKUS) which was meant to threaten China in the region. Lavrov too held meetings with his Chinese counterpart and others in the run-up to the meeting between the two presidents.

Soon after this, Putin proposed an increase in ‘gas exports to China to 48 billion cubic metres (bcm) a year via a new pipeline that will deliver 10 bcm annually from its Far East region. Putin also said that he wanted to increase trade between the two superpowers to a volume of $200bn, up from the $140bn it had reached in 2021.’

Hardly six months after that meeting, Xi left his country for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic to take part in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that it was ‘China’s most important event of head-of-state diplomacy on the eve of the 20^th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.’ In his keynote speech, President Xi spoke about Chinese willingness to work with all stakeholders to make Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) a success. He also spoke of cultural diversity among SCO nations, representing the largest organisation of its kind in the world.

As for Russia, the Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry released a statement which describes how keen Putin is for China to flourish under the leadership of Xi. “The two countries have maintained close coordination on the international stage to uphold basic norms of international relations. In the face of changes of the world, of our times and of history, China will work with Russia to fulfil their responsibilities as major countries and play a leading role in injecting stability into a world of change and disorder.”

Though the statement has made no mention of Ukraine, Putin has been reported saying that he had understood Xi’s ‘concerns’ on Ukraine. The statement did have a mention of Taiwan and a ‘firm’ opposition to its independence and foreign intervention. Hence, China and Russia are not equal partners in their alliance. It is Russia who has been trying to exaggerate its ties with China in a bid to counter the impression that it has not been isolated.

The volume of trade between Russia and China and India and China are not very different. During the sidelines of the summit, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also stressed that it was time for Russia to end the Ukraine war and focus on other major issues faced by the world. Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, followed this development and stated in Washington, “I think what you (Putin) are hearing from China, from India, is reflective of concerns around the world about the effects of Russia’s aggression on Ukraine.”

But days after his meeting with Xi, Putin seemingly consigned the Chinese advice to the dustbin and made a long public address on September 20 to inform the Russian people that the world powers have allied against them and they have to stand firm to reclaim their glory and liberty.

Taiwan may not appear more than a dot on the map in front of China, but China is not starting any war to reclaim it. War makes you weaker. Weaker partners have more to lose than to gain in unequal alliances. Putin stated that he has ‘understood’ Xi’s concerns, but his actions speak otherwise. If things continue in this manner, it will soon be like an alliance between a lion and a sheep.

The writer teaches mediatization at IIUI