Game plan – economic decimation

The grand plan was to call it a miscalculation or misadventure. Missed the target or missed the boat? Such are the speculations that are rife in every Whatsapp message and every vlog. Every gathering in houses and lunch break in offices is just an endless discourse of how depressing is the present political situation. There is frustration, suspicion and anger. Normally the debates of this nature used to hover around “who dunnit” type insinuations, but no longer.

Everybody knows who has done it, why they did it, how it happened, how it was scripted. The intent, the actions and the results. Most feel that cursing or praying seems to be the only two options people have left.

Drones of inflation are hitting Pakistan wave after wave. Missiles of taxes are attacking salaried people and industries alike. Petrol bombs are turning cars into an unaffordable luxury. Every day there is a new hit in the making on the poor, the struggling and the salaried. It is relentless, ruthless, unbearable and unstoppable. As these attacks are hurled one after the other, the danger of an implosion in public reaction is almost inevitable. This implosion will take the form of social unrest, crime, lawlessness and violence which is a logical consequence. This is a pre-determined pattern, a scripted plan to bring Pakistan to its knees, where it actually kneels to grab bits of economic aid thrown by the powers controlling the financial dole outs. The whole narrative of the PDM and their sponsors of bad governance and incompetence being the reason for ousting the ex-government has fallen flat. In two months, the country from a case study of growth amidst a crashing world, is now being touted as the next Sri Lanka. Some very obvious secrets have become open to support this:

1. Hurry to bury – The government is in a big rush. It would have made sense if the rush was focused on getting some big time relief for the public. Instead, they went expeditiously on getting relief for themselves. As if all else was sorted, they rushed into changing NAB laws. The changes were blatant and obvious. They focused on making their corruption cases dismissed under the new laws. The person specific changes have been challenged in the court. The joint sessions to overrule the President’s objections made it very obvious that their desperation is to go scot free in Rs 1100 billion corruption cases. To top it all, PML N’s energy minister Khurram Dastgir admitted that they brought the vote of no-confidence to save themselves from being convicted in the corruption cases.

2. The urge to splurge – Another big giveaway was the resumption of the royal living while giving lessons of austerity to the public. Ahsan Iqbal asking the public to have less tea, and Qamar Zaman Kaira’s advice of having less sugar. At the same time, Rs 2.2 million of public money was being spent on upgrading bathrooms of PM office. The Finance Minister giving the horrible news of the empty coffers of the exchequer and then using millions of taxpayer money to upgrade his ministerial enclave. Lavish buffets for journalists and all expenses paid foreign tours and family for alliances, made a mockery of Dr Mussadiq Malik’s claim that the government does not have money to buy poison. This offset their initial reason of bad governance being the reason for this vote of no-confidence.

3. Inflation destruction – Perhaps the biggest blow to their narrative has been the abject decimation of the economy since they took over. The way the economy has stumbled and crashed has raised two questions. If they were so ignorant in economic management, why did they risk taking over at this stage? The second question is even more telling. If they deliberately took no decisions to let the crash happen, then on whose agenda were they working? These questions resonated even more when Miftah Ismail presented the Pakistan Economic Survey that clearly highlighted a growing economy in the last two years where most of the targets set were exceeded. This has put a big dent on the PDM narrative and made it even more obvious that the real agenda was not to save the economy, but to save themselves from being jailed.

As a consequence, a new narrative is developing. The question is that was it the super power’s agenda to revert Pakistan to the begging bowl by destroying its economy through this put together government and thereafter control its foreign policy? It is a game of who blinks first. Things look on the edge. There are three tipping points:

1. Cracks in the government – The unnatural alliance of a dozen political parties was bound to show differences. These differences so far are bordering around the distribution of ministries and money. MQM is not happy as their choice of governor in Sindh is still pending. Asif Ali Zardari is not happy as in Punjab they are still looking for more cabinet space. The independents are unhappy as the development funds are still not up to expectations. Soon this disenchantment will turn into open conflict. MQM has lost in local bodies election in Sindh. With growing public rejection of these parties, they will be forced to criticize the government. So far it is a bit muted. When it becomes loud, the government will be even more cornered.

2. Saving the economy – The main issue is that the economy has become almost unmanageable. In the worst heat and loadshedding, there are no solutions on the horizon. Petrol prices are soaring and will spike further. Electricity bills are almost impossible to pay. SPI shows inflation at 28% that many feel is understated by some distance. The government’s feeble attempts to now talk about oil purchase from Russia is further fuelling perception of delayed, inept and ignorant economic management. To make matters worse, they are planning to replace Miftah Ismail with Ishaq Dar. This could be a challenge within the party where these two lobbies may create even more political and economic vulnerability for PMLN.

3. Handling public outburst – Perhaps the biggest tipping point is testing the limits of public angst. Some scenes in Karachi of looting petrol pumps and traders burning the electricity bills are just starters. This could intensify if political parties join in. That perhaps is the biggest tipping point of a political economy veering off a cliff.

Political uncertainty is anathema to economic stability. Many feel that any more of what we are seeing is going to cause a spiralling spin that makes recovery impossible. Many others feel that stability with such fundamentals and governance will just be an eye wash as having a government with a dozen parties of all colours and philosophy is bound to fail. Recent surveys all point how fresh elections are the only solution to this mess. Many say fresh and free elections may not be possible with the government desperate to stay and institutions already a party to this scheme of vote of no-confidence. Public confidence is at its lowest. They have already given a vote of no-confidence by going out on the streets on their own. These are critical times. Time for standing up and be counted or just taking it lying down.

The writer is a columnist, consultant, coach, and an analyst