Going Nowhere

Friends turning away. Neighbours stirring up trouble. Global issues screaming for attention. This is not where Pakistan was six months ago. Then it was the country leading the change in Afghanistan. It had become the consultation ground for the OIC and emerged as a leader for Central Asian connectivity. But now, six months later, even our friends have started avoiding us. And this has been stated by none other than the Prime minister himself. In six months neighbours like Afghanistan have started accusing us of playing a double game. The OIC pledges seem to have lost all momentum, and the Central Asian initiatives of connectivity have gone back to the status of routine communiques and MOUs.

The recent SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) summit was a good opportunity for Pakistan to make its presence felt. There was a great chance of approaching a number of very important global players with vision, a sound plan and some cleverly crafted bilateral and multilateral incentives. However, it ended in merely some token handshakes and meet ups, and nothing more. The Prime Minister did attract some attention, but not for the right reasons. A video with him featuring centre stage became viral due to the famous satire/comedy, the Jimmy Fallon show, where he mocked the Pakistan PM for clumsily fumbling with his earphones in his meeting with President Putin. This could have been funny, but it indicated the absence of statesmanship. The lack of any concrete statement emerging from the Prime Minister or the Foreign Minister after that trip just reinforced that impression. And this at a time when Pakistan desperately needs global attention, sympathy, engagement. There is a dire need to develop a strategic framework of how to recover international space. To this end it is necessary to:

1. Achieve foreign policy continuity — Not all leaders are foreign policy-savvy. Not all leaders have the capacity to understand and pursue this complex domain. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was an exceptional leader. Despite being a dictator, President Musharraf had a knack of garnering international attention and support. Unfortunately, despite ruling the country four times each, Zardari and the Sharif Brothers have shown remarkable disinterest and lack of focus with regard to this extremely important area. Ex-Prime minister Imran Khan was very passionate about foreign policy and it was under his particular leadership that Pakistan’s stature was raised in the international arena. Bilawal Bhutto’s placement as Foreign Minister reflects prematurity. He seems to be nonchalantly sitting on the backbench, rather than leading and creating a foreign policy niche for Pakistan. It is necessary that either we witness a complete change in his approach, or the Minister of State, Hina Rabbani Khar, is given the ministership, or the authority to move ahead and make some real effort to recover lost time and stature.

2. Attain a consensus on policy direction — One of the key efforts made in the last three years was to develop a National Security Document with the help of all stakeholders with a major focus on foreign policy. To that end the Foreign office, along with the National Security advisor, had formed a Strategic Communication apex committee which included the security agencies, the Foreign Office and the relevant ministries. They all contributed to the creation of this first-of-a-kind document which was launched at a Security Dialogue Conference. The problem now is that the present government seems to have no direction of any sort in respect of international issues. Their statements mean nothing in concrete terms. And there appear to be no plans to move ahead regionally or globally.

The major change that was stressed upon by all stakeholders in the Security Dialogue Conference was that Pakistan is shifting from geo-politics to geo-economics. This meant that instead of just aligning itself with political expediencies, Pakistan would make decisions that suited the country’s economic development. Special mention was made of the need to avoid getting into conflicts created regionally by other countries. That is why, as international oil prices rose, a joint decision was made under this policy to approach Russia to buy cheaper oil, gas and wheat. Under the new government, this move has been shelved and the resultant spiralling rise in petroleum prices has created huge economic pressures. The Prime Minister did meet the Russian president on the side lines of the SCO summit, but it is still not clear what the strategy to procure oil and gas from Russia is — if there is any strategy at all. To remove this uncertainty, a clear reaffirmation of the earlier foreign policy direction — at least in this regard — is urgently needed. If the government wants to pursue a different avenue, then that new direction needs to be clearly mapped and shared with all the stakeholders to remove this ambiguity.

3. Engage the countries and embassies that have the most to offer us — Foreign policy memoranda under the last dispensation clearly stated that the focus would shift from aid to trade. This meant that the embassies would not just be dealing with facilitating foreign visits of government officials, but would play an active role in promoting trade. Exports are currently facing a major decline as textile mills face stiff competition due to rising costs. This means that the government needs to activate post-haste our embassies to come up with aggressive marketing plans to counter this slowing of trade. The government must identify the key countries to focus on. The Corona crisis made the role of embassies very important. In 2020, for the first time in history, ambassadors and staff from key embassies were trained to change their mind set from just being glorified diplomatic emissaries engaged in ceremonial decorum, to vibrant brand managers trying to build the market appetite for Pakistani products. This needs to continue with more rigour. Embassies need to be given specific targets to promote our products and services. Regular monitoring and evaluation needs to be done to ensure that the targets set are being actively pursued.

4. Create a lobbying campaign for support — Pakistan was emerging as a leader in not only the Central Asian markets, but also the Islamic world. Two OIC summits held in the first quarter of 2022, after a gap of 15 years, were making Pakistan’s voice matter in the Muslim world. The United Nation’s recognition of March 15 as Islamophobia Day, as a result of Pakistan’s efforts, was confirmation of this status. All of a sudden this enthusiasm seems to have dissipated. There have been a flurry of calls to Islamic countries, but these are more to elicit financial aid than to debate foreign policy matters. The Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister must not allow foreign policy matters to be side lined. If Pakistan is not seen to lead issues on Kashmir, Palestine etc, the Islamic world will treat Pakistan with little importance. Thus, the pressing need to create a group of foreign policy advisors who must come up with a concrete and proactive plan and direction on critical regional, Islamic and world matters.

The world has little respect for those who fail to craft positions, take stands and fight for deserving global issues. A look at our neighbouring countries is a lesson on having the right or wrong foreign policy. We have seen many a nation like Afghanistan suffer, as their leadership took no clear stand while the people fought bravely against foreign encroachment. On the other hand, countries like Iran, China and even India have made savvy international and global moves, adopted all the postures and taken all the positions that can benefit them. Despite American displeasure and sanctions, these countries have fared much better than those who have toed the superpower line, even at the cost of geo-economic benefits to their own country. If a country needs to matter to the world, if it wants to regain its international stature, it needs to stop treating “foreign” policy as a policy that is dependent, led and directed by “foreign” powers.

The writer is a columnist, consultant, coach, and analyst