Has the US abandoned Afghanistan?

In a couple of weeks, the Taliban will celebrate the first anniversary of their control over Afghanistan. Last year, the US left the country in a huff, leaving behind a chaotic Afghanistan; thousands of Afghans, who worked with the US and other NATO states, were stranded in an uncertain future. Still, there are thousands of Afghan families in transit camps in UAE, Qatar, Pakistan and European countries whose fate is to be decided by the host countries, including the US. Similarly, on the political plane, the US-imposed sanctions have a crippling impact on the Afghan economy, raising the poverty level in the country to an alarming 95 percent.

These uncertainties are part of the overall problem relating to the Taliban regime occupying the country, much to the annoyance of the US. It has created an impasse in the country; a single government does not recognize the Taliban regime, while most Afghan diplomatic missions are being manned by Ashraf Ghani regime’s appointed officials, who follow an anti-Taliban agenda. The Taliban continue to display inflexibility even on trivial issues such as the right to education for girls.

The moot question circulating in Islamabad’s diplomatic circles is whether the US left Afghanistan to fight the Taliban at a later day or whether the Biden administration has abandoned the Afghanistan project. Another question seeking a plausible answer is whether the US is propping up anti-Taliban forces to challenge the religious militia while sitting at a safe distance. The evolving situation in Afghanistan corroborates the view that the US may have agreed with the Taliban. Still, it was under pressure from former presidents Trump and Biden to leave the country to attend to the anti-China agenda under the banner of the Indo-Pacific alliance. The Ukrainian crisis has further relegated Afghanistan to the background. Therefore, the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan is no more front-page news.

It is becoming apparent that American policymakers do not regard Afghanistan as a priority issue. Therefore, they are least interested in discussing the matter with the Taliban regime or raising concern with Pakistan for a possible collaboration to stabilize Afghanistan and address its economic woes. Pakistan also realizes that the Taliban may not like Pakistan to speak on their behalf with the Americans. Recent attacks by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan alarmed Pakistani authorities about the possible complicity of the Afghan Taliban in facilitating attacks on border posts inside Pakistan.

More importantly, the US has not made public its exact demands with the Taliban to improve its relationship with the clerical regime leading to its recognition. An intelligent guess, however, may point to three broad issues that the US may want the Taliban to address before the US may agree to normalize the relationship. First, the US would expect the Taliban to seriously take counter-terrorism measures and go the whole hog against the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K). Some American scholars dealing with Afghanistan opine that the Taliban had earlier declined the US assistance offer in tackling the IS-K as they thought they had the capability to tackle the IS-K terrorists.

Second, Afghan girls’ education has become a serious issue in the US enjoying bipartisan support. The Biden administration cannot afford to compromise on the subject as it is directly linked to other human rights issues, especially women’s rights. There are also rights groups in the US which would ensure that no administration compromises on women’s issues and girls’ education.

Third, the US has been propounding the demand for an inclusive government soon after the signing of the Doha agreement. While claiming that they have an inclusive government drawn from various ethnic and religious minority groups, the Taliban question the locus of those raising such demands. The Taliban have asked the Biden administration whether they would include former President Trump’s officials in their administration. The Taliban would ensure that no Karzai or Ashraf Ghani government members are inducted into the government. The reports that the anti-Taliban alliance under Ahmad Masoud may be in the offing would make the Taliban more reclusive and sceptical of any proposal of accommodating opposition in the future dispensation.

On the bilateral plane, despite US Special Envoy on Afghanistan Thomas West’s frequent interaction, nothing concrete has come out between the Taliban regime and the Biden administration. While the US has been making demands, it has yet to make known its intention for future dealings with the Taliban should the latter agree to meet the US demands concerning counter-terrorism, girls’ schooling, or the establishment of an inclusive government in the country. It is also unclear whether the US will not make additional demands in future. Undoubtedly, the Taliban reciprocate the mistrust and inflexible stance adopted by the American side. However, one positive development concerns US readiness to discuss the repatriation of frozen accounts of $ 9.6 billion to Afghanistan, although the talks to this effect are in the initial stages.

Regarding Pakistan-US relations from the Afghan issue perspective, the US has adopted complete silence after withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan. There are hardly any substantive engagements between the two countries on stabilizing the situation in Afghanistan. US analysts believe that although Pakistan may have facilitated the talks between the US and the Taliban, Pakistan has not been an “honest broker”. They cite the introduction of the draft Taliban Act in the US Congress in September last year to inquire into the US’ Afghanistan mission. Under Section 202 (b), the Bill seeks an “assessment of support by state and non-state actors, including Government of Pakistan, for the Taliban between 2001-2020, including the provision of sanctuary space, financial support, intelligence support, logistics and medical support, training, equipping, and tactical, operational, or strategic direction.”

From Pakistan’s standpoint, the Indian use of Afghan soil against Pakistan and the American apathy to Pakistan’s protestations over the Indian mischief has been the primary reason for Pakistan’s selective cooperation with the US. Pakistan had to support the Taliban against Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani, for the former Afghan presidents were hand in glove with the Indians, and the Americans knew it.

The US exit from Afghanistan means that it is virtually out of the Central Asian region. It has no presence in Iran or Central Asia; it competes with China, while it has a frozen relationship with Pakistan. The US has lost credibility and influence in the entire region. Meanwhile, political instability in Pakistan has dashed all hopes of revival of the relationship with the US.

The writer is a former ambassador of Pakistan to Iran and UAE. Currently, he is working as Senior Research Fellow at IPRI