Heading towards sixth generation warfare

Hybrid wars are the new conflict and control weapon. Military operations have become old fashioned warfare. Cyber wars are the new tool of attack. Sponsoring terrorism, ethnic clashes, religious rhetoric are the new weapons of mass destruction. All of this is known as fifth generation warfare. This type of warfare is more internally generated than through external invasion. The world has progressed a great deal from first-generation warfare.

What is happening in Pakistan is hard to fit in any of this description. Does that mean in Pakistan we are witnessing the new 6th generational warfare? Let us take a look at the other five and then decide.

First-generation warfare refers to the ancient battles fought with mass manpower, using traditional trench tactics with soldiers governed by the state. Civil wars in the 18th century may be an example of this. Second-generation warfare is about weapon tactics used after the invention of rifles along with the development of the machine gun and indirect fire. The term second generation warfare was created by the U.S. military in 1989. Third-generation warfare focused on using modern war strategy-derived tactics of leveraging speed, stealth and surprise to bypass the enemy’s lines and collapse their forces from the rear, sometimes called guerrilla warfare. Essentially, this was the end of linear warfare on a tactical level, with units seeking not simply to meet each other face to face, but to outmanoeuvre each other to gain the greatest advantage. Fourth-generation warfare was characterized by a “post-modern” return to decentralized forms of warfare, blurring the lines between war and politics, combatants and civilians due to nation states’ loss of their near-monopoly on combat forces.

The most talked about development is the fifth-generation warfare. It is conducted primarily through non-kinetic military action, such as engineering, misinformation, cyber-attacks, along with emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and fully autonomous systems. Fifth generation warfare has been described by Daniel Abbot as a war of “information and perception”.

Lately, Pakistan has been facing the fifth-generation warfare which focuses on information and perception war. What is happening presently is beyond 5GWF. Are we in the 6th generation warfare? Some factors that have led to this new war within are:

1. Disinformation countered and semi conquered – Pakistan has suffered in the past as India abetted by Israel and its western allies constantly painted Pakistan as a rogue and terrorist state. Pakistan was not able to respond and counter this organized information and perception war. In the last few years, particularly the ex-Prime minister Imran Khan, highlighted the reality of India and put them on the defensive by constantly exposing Modi’s hate Muslims hegemony. Revelations shook the world as how for fifteen years India had used fake sites and institutions to develop a fake imagery of Pakistan. This counter attack by Pakistan reversed the trend. In January 2020, Pakistan was declared by the World Tourism sites as the most attractive place to visit in contrast to 2010 when it was declared the most dangerous place to visit. This emergence made India and its allies uncomfortable. The 5th generation warfare was not getting the same result. That is why they planned to use a combination technique which planned to remove internally a government that was reversing the tide.

2. An economic revival amidst crisis – Another problem was that the country was becoming a case study for corona and economic management. During the last two years, US, EU and India were horror scenes of virus mismanagement and failure, they were also experiencing crashing growth rates. Pakistan, on the other hand, posted growth rates of 5.74% in 2021 and almost 6% in 2022. This made the opponents realize that if not taken to task immediately the game will slip out of their hand. There was no time to go for another 5th generation warfare. To get quick results, they opted for a collusion of the most powerful stakeholders in the country. They planned that this apparently constitutional vote of no-confidence will make it look democratic and in any case nobody dare speak against the most powerful stakeholders of the country. It seemed like a great 6th generation warfare technique where enemy’s enemy becomes a partner to defeat the country’s rising status.

3. A non-malleable leadership – Another obstacle for Pakistan’s controllers was the non-controllability of the leadership. Having been shamed in Afghanistan, the humiliation of being given a plain “absolutely not” by Pakistan was just too much. The global superpower discovered that the local super power was also having a problem of controlling this leadership. With this common bone of contention, they played an unbeatable game. They ousted the government and won the battle, but not the war. That still goes on.

Thus, the 6th generation warfare combines the old technique of regime change with the new tools of disinformation and perception. Though the plan has succeeded in the sense that Pakistan’s economy has tumbled and it is now fighting for survival, the defeat or victory are still dependent on:

1. Redemption or re-calculation – The fact that the public reaction was miscalculated is now confirmed. What is not confirmed is whether the admission of this mistake is also going to be followed by some remedial actions. To get to the “making amends” stage, the information and perception battle needs to be rigorous and relentless. So far the TikTok warriors are defeating guns, shelling, beating, bashing and arresting by supersonic video bytes that are biting the sting out of the 6th generation warfare.

2. Sustainability of resistance – Another criteria for all parties/stakeholders vs one is the ability of this resistance to last. There is talk that since the present Army Chief retires in November, nothing will change. Resistance will be stampeded and beaten to dust. Whatever change happens will be the duty of the new Chief of Army Staff post November. This option is questionable as the present collection of 14 parties in government are failing to handle the economic crisis. This has already resulted in flared up public reaction and is likely to result in clashes even if the political parties do not lead protests.

3. The new stakeholder order – There are indicators of the information and perception fabrication factories losing their steam. The media and anchors who were part and parcel of protecting this change in government are finding it impossible to survive without representing public outrage. Lately, even the most biased media experts are forced to talk about the failing economy and the government. This has started dividing the stakeholder support. This division was evident by the open press conference of the veterans demanding truth and action against the government.

The 6th generation warfare is where the powers in the world identify and collude with the institutional power brokers in the country. These power centres exist in media, judiciary, bureaucracy and state institutions. This collusion then gives the veneer of internally driven constitutional change that “democratically substitutes those developing a country with those destroying it. The 6th generation warfare is a war within, a war of betrayal, a war by those who turn the gun inward. As Chique le Frique says, “Sometimes, the person you’d take a bullet for, ends up being the one behind the gun.

The writer is a columnist, consultant, coach, and an analyst