Heat wave’s socioeconomic quagmires

Climate change has brought tremendous challenges for countries which are not limited to natural disasters alone. Rising global temperatures have wreaked havoc on international economic systems of which many rely on sound ecosystems for sustenance. Pakistan is no exception to this rule with the lingering heat wave presenting massive socioeconomic challenges amid rising sovereign debt, bankruptcy and declining GDP growth rates. The heat wave has severe consequences for such states which lack economic development and a sound resource base and confront declining agricultural productivity which in turn has an impact on consumer demand. Revenue generation, which is critical for Pakistan in the year 2022 given its recent history of political turmoil, can also not be guaranteed if the pernicious effects of climate change continue to take a toll on the economy.

Rising temperatures are a concern for some of the most advanced economies in the world let alone developing ones despite robust manufacturing and service sectors. The impact on lower income countries, however, is particularly severe given examples of droughts in the Horn of Africa which resulted in destitution in Djibouti, Ethiopia and Somalia. Civilian deaths and dwindling livestock, which is a staple for herdsman and the population at large, have been a recurring feature. In light of this, the adverse impact of climate change may hit particularly hard in places such as the Thar Desert and large swathes of Balochistan given the importance of agrarian livelihoods for basic sustenance. Heat waves due to the penetration of the Ozone Layer is having a disastrous impact on glaciers with the recent melting of snow-capped peaks demolishing homes in the Hunza Valley despite being known as one of the most beautiful and exotic tourist locations in Pakistan. These harrowing realities serve as a reminder that human lives will continue to be in jeopardy unless the residual effects of industrialization such as noxious CO2 emissions are not addressed.

Sadly, Pakistan has fallen prey to global neglect of ecosystems with industrialized countries such as the United States and China contributing significantly to global warming. Much of the impact of climate change can be considered foreign and the only measure that can be taken by stakeholders, conservationists and environmentalists is to adopt a hedging strategy to offset the indirect effects of economic activity by industrialized nations. The billion tree tsunami program, for example, was a commendable step by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government to ensure that CO2 levels in Pakistan’s atmosphere are naturally controlled. Noxious atmospherics also have a dilapidating impact on populations in major urban centres such as Lahore, Karachi and Islamabad where the bulk of industrial and economic activity takes place. Additionally, poor air quality has a negative effect on the health of the populace which is linked with employment rates and productivity.

However, the heat wave in Pakistan is expected to rise in the summer months of 2022 which is unprecedented despite uncomfortable temperatures witnessed in the past. Rolling black-outs which have intensified since the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) government assumed power in April 2022 has meant that there is little relief for the common man which is otherwise grappling with lower incomes, unemployment, rising prices and an uncertain economic outlook. The psychological impact of a demotivated workforce involves capacity issues in key industries and decline in worker satisfaction. This in turn results in greater social unrest, protests and agitation against state authorities which jeopardizes the social contract and promotes factors which could lead to regime change. These variables are all interlinked and cannot be considered as mutually exclusive especially for a country such as Pakistan. A breakdown in social order due to poor policy making at the global level has disastrous consequences for Pakistan.

Internal cohesion is critical to offset discord which is a product of economic despair and climate change. The combination, if materialized, would mirror circumstances which have been found in Sub Saharan Africa despite great disparity between countries such as Chad and Mali as compared to Pakistan. This is because heat waves promote loss of livelihoods and exasperates the effects of income inequality as well. For example, the social stratification based on income levels in Pakistan has resulted in divergent lifestyles with different access to facilities and amenities. Hence, elites in major urban centres can afford to shield themselves and their families from the effects of climate change which cannot be said of populations languishing in the periphery. The inability of the government to manage the breakdown of the environment will hence widen income gaps and contribute to great economic instability.

As Pakistan grapples with climate change with record level temperatures being witnessed, it is imperative for all stakeholders to address the long-term effects of the heat wave which are not limited to sheltering from dangerous rays alone. The disastrous impact was felt in Hunza with the melting of glaciers providing a stark reminder that the inability to look for swift, yet comprehensive solutions will only contribute to the problem instead of addressing it.

The writer is an Assistant Research Associate at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute