Imran Khan not going

Hypothetically speaking, if there’s a vote of no confidence and Imran Khan loses, the National Assembly has to elect a new Prime Minister. Who will that be if not Maulana Fazlur Rehman, Sherpao, Achakzai or Asfandyar Wali- all of them happen to be out of the National Assembly. Jehangir Tareen is equally disqualified and on the fringe and no serious politician would like to touch him with a barge pole. Then who?

Would Nawaz Sharif and his loyal followers in PMLN allow Shahbaz Sharif to become the Prime Minister? Let’s assume that happens and after taking oath from President Arif Alvi (where all the three services chiefs are present) he dissolves the National Assembly. Just the National Assembly, mind you. Not the provincial assemblies. The caretaker PM is to be nominated in consultation and agreement between the two leaders of the house and opposition. Who would be the leader of opposition? Imran Khan.

Can anyone in his sane mind come to imagine such a fairy tale scenario? It’s the whip of accountability that has got all of them moving about as headless chicken. the accused turn to full volume wailing. Where will a failed, rejected and discredited political lot look to if the noose of accountability were to get tighter by the day?

Having personally known GHQ for a decade, with my hand on heart, I could never tell at that time how many gates are there to enter the power house of Pakistan. Only a year and half ago, I happened to call on a very dear friend in the GHQ and was conducted through the main gate to the area of this sprawling estate where the top brass have their offices. I never learnt how many gates there are to enter it, but one thing became obvious that gate number 4 is the entry point of politicians. This gate has become an euphemism for the intervention, support and indulgence of the army in messy matters of rejected politicians. They, in many ways, remind me of Maulana Abdul Aziz of Islamabad’s Lal Masjid, who during the siege of the mosque, tried to escape the army’s cordon, wearing a burka and got caught. Gate number 4 doesn’t fancy burkas, but the cadgers like to remain incognito so as to maintain their hypocritical persona.

The euphoria created by media, that something has emboldened the opposition and Imran Khan is on the way out, is rife. It’s the absence of competent and resourceful news reporting- regrettably aided by ultra sensational TV news channels and newspapers editorial pieces that are spreading unintelligible news scenarios, which are diversely opposed to the reasoned analyses. I have read quite a few.

The chief reason for our failed politics in the past has been the tremendous discord between the elected governments and the powerful army of Pakistan. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto thought he could have a cog in General Zia; by superseding eight generals- but regrettably ended up on the gallows. Junejo refused to be a poodle, but was shown the door quite unceremoniously. Nawaz Sharif could never understand the dynamics of the army and funnily thought he could conspire against the Chief and have him crash land in India- and had another one resign. Benazir Bhutto accepted a half-baked regime as the prime minister and remained uncomfortable.

All this because politicians knew more of power romanticism and less understanding of the realpolitik. Any clash ended with the establishment ended their governments through the guillotine of Article 58(2)(b).

This is the first time since Pakistan’s inception that the elected government and the army are hand in glove. The whole world knows that the army stands behind Imran Khan like a rock and any foreign interests by way of investment and long term economic collaboration are finding comfort and trust in Pakistan. That’s the political scenario of Pakistan where the winning combination has been achieved for the first time. Nothing has happened in the last 3 years to derail it other than the squeals of those under the accountability bulldozer.

Can Pakistan, at this point in time, even fathom the consequences of such a circus in the name of democracy? Contrary to what one might label certain geo-political analyses as marketing Pakistan as an expensive real estate, but cutting through such sarcasm, we are at the cusp of a unprecedented geo-political transition. India’s jump straight onto the lap of US virtually demolishing their decades old pacts with Russia and China enveloping Pakistan with ever so warmer embrace, make new political vistas opening up in this region. Pakistan’s dominant role in post-US Afghanistan and the primacy of CPEC in China’s global politics-coupled with its unprecedented aggression against India in Laddakh and multiple agreements with Iran- China’s foreign policy requires a strong and trusted ally in Pakistan. From overnight changing the name of Kashmir Highway in the capital to a putting forward Pakistan’s first ever national security policy, Pakistan’s civil-military relations make it sine qua non for the internal affairs of Pakistan under effective control.

Pakistan is no more available for the repeat of sordid methods of buying judges or playing Punjabi or Sindhi card and maintaining the plunder.

The current slapstick comedy pivoting around an ailing Chaudhry to woo for a non-starter no trust move is an attempt by scared people who feel the noose tightening around their neck. Imran Khan is playing his cards from the position of strength and believe me he’s not going anywhere; whether gate 4 remains open or shut Imran is not going.

The writer is a former Senator and a practicing barrister in England and Pakistan