Lessons from Sri Lanka

People attacking petrol stations. Families surrounding a minister in public and chanting “thief, thief”. No, this is not Sri Lanka, but Pakistan. Storming of the Bastille in France was a lesson. Is storming of presidency in Sri Lanka a lesson? Is history being repeated or is it being re-written? Is Pakistan on the way of Sri Lanka? These are all the questions that are arising in every mind. Each global crisis creates more division and conflict and pushes people on the edge. Perched on the very thin line of living or dying, people react desperately and sometimes viciously.

The famous storming of the Bastille was a decisive moment in the early months of the French Revolution (1789-1799). On 14 July 1789, Bastille, a fortress and political prison symbolizing the oppressiveness of France’s kingdom regime was attacked by a crowd mainly consisting of lower classes. The masses were deprived of their basic rights and they retaliated by counter-attacking the few who hoarded power. Sri Lanka is going through this public outrage and Pakistan may follow suit. Let us cast a look at the similarities to the pent-up public anger in the countries:

1. The brothers in power – In Sri Lanka, for almost two decades, the Rajapaksa family ruled while in Pakistan the Sharif family has been in politics for three decades. One of the Rajapaksa brothers, Mahinda, has dominated Sri Lankan politics serving as president for a decade (2005-2015) and then, later, as prime minister. His brother, Gotabaya, was president then. Mahinda kept controlling power and eventually became the country’s president. He made his brother, Lt Col Nandasena Gotabaya Rajapaksa, an American citizen at the time, to serve as the country’s defence secretary. Later, his other brother, Basil, also an American citizen, was made a senior advisor to the president. During Mahinda’s first term as president, the Rajapaksas brought the finances under tight control. Basil oversaw the financial takeover and was branded as Mr Ten Percent. In Pakistan, President Zardari was branded Mr Ten Percent. The Sharif brothers and Zardari family in Pakistan similarly have been removed and brought back into power four times. The Rajapaksa family like the Sharif and Zardari family are called a dynasty and has had corruption removals many times only to make deals with power brokers and come back to power.

2. Corruption tax on poor – Power brings money and money brings more power. This formula was shared between the Rajapaksa family and the Sharif family. With the second generation also launched in politics, their extended family influence in politics made them control lucrative ministerial projects. Chamal Rajapaksa, another brother, was elected the speaker of parliament and then he became minister for shipping and aviation. Namal Rajapaksa, the eldest son of Mahinda was the heir apparent for the next top position. He was made the minister for youth and sports after he entered the parliament in 2010. Similarly, the Sharif family made Ishaq Dar, Nawaz Sharif’s daughter’s father-in-law as a finance minister. Nawaz Sharif’s nephew Abid Sher Ali became minister of state for energy. His daughter Maryam was the heiress apparent. Presently, the younger brother Shehbaz Sharif is prime minister and his son is fighting to remain the chief minister of Punjab. Both the Rajapaksa and Sharif government would create artificial growth gloss that would crack on the hint of any economic crisis. The Mahinda Rajapaksa government officially recorded years of spectacular growth, but the growth was of a particular type: large scale infrastructure projects such as roads/highways, an airport, and a lotus tower that were tainted with corruption, provided low returns, and filled the pockets of a politically connected, protectionist, and parasitic class of business people. Meanwhile, the president’s critics were intimidated, and journalists were killed or just disappeared, generating widespread fear and a climate of self-censorship. The Sharif’s have done the same. Metros and Orange trains made with high costs and unpayable debts made the economy bankrupt when time for paying back the debt came.

3. The rebellion – This family nexus helps control politics, policies and projects. One small example of this 3P combination in Pakistan is that the government has announced 50 billion rupees to convert all government buildings to solar power while the PM’s son happens to be the biggest importer of solar panels in Pakistan. Such accumulation of wealth in a few hands increases income inequality, causes inflation and pushes people in poverty, sickness and hunger. In Sri Lanka, it was the price of petrol and inflation that resulted in people being pushed to the edge. The inflation was 40%. In Pakistan, the food inflation has crossed 30% mark. Finally, in Sri Lanka, people took to streets due to petrol and food shortages. These street protests led to some cosmetic resignations and changes, but the economy kept on tumbling. This resulted in rebellion and a raid on the Presidency. There is mixed news on the President resigning and fleeing the country. In Pakistan, since the unrest on corruption of the two ruling parties ended up with army takeovers, these families used to get NROs due to their foreign connections and flee abroad. This time, they have come in the government again due to foreign and local handlers. However, the third party phenomenon i.e. PTI is the difference. Their protests have become a movement that if stopped with force by the government and their handlers could become a rebellion.

The question is: what are the lessons Pakistan needs to learn from Sri Lanka? The US super power, aided and abetted by the local super power game plan to teach an uncontrollable Imran Khan, has itself become uncontrollable. The government is floundering on all accounts. Economy has tanked. Governance in Sindh and Punjab is a joke. Public unrest is dangerously perched. If some sanity prevails with the handlers they can stop using force and threats to influence by-elections. Let the elections be transparent and fair. Stop media/anchors harassment. Most important, negotiate on a reasonable timetable for the general elections.

These are steps that will prevent a Sri Lanka repeat in Pakistan. These are obvious lessons to prevent the outpouring of public anger. This seems logical, but least likely to happen. As with the Rajapaksa family, the Sharif family has a history of doing the same till they are forced to pack up. The establishment is so obviously party to this disaster and they are paralyzed by the damn if we do and damn if we don’t dilemma. If the elections are an engineered exercise, as is apparent, it will result in a public uproar that will lead to unintended consequences. The anger of the public will not just target the PM house, but it may be storming of the Bastille on state run institutions. There is still time and space for learning and redemption. The only hurdles are of ego and lust of power and fear. These are the real battles that will have to be won to prevent a tragedy of errors happening in the country.

The writer is a columnist, consultant, coach, and an analyst