MBS means business

Neither the Kingdom was influenced by the US in 2019, nor has it been now in its decision to set up the refinery in Gwadar

Naif Al Otaibi, the press attaché at the Saudi Embassy in Islamabad, has confirmed to Arab News that Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), the Saudi crown prince, will arrive here on November 21.

The confirmation coincides with a meeting between MBS and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif at Sharm el-Sheikh, a known resort-town in Egypt where up to 200 representatives of different states came together for the United Nations Climate Change Conference, also called COP-27. Sharif was leading a delegation of ministers at the conference. It was his second encounter with the prince in less than a month. Last time, the two met in the last week of October at Davos in the Desert conference, in which 6,000 business leaders from across the globe participated.

Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, who accompanied Sharif in the meeting with MBS in Sharm el-Sheikh, flew to the Kingdom on November 9, shortly after the meeting, on a two-day visit where he will have back-to-back discussions with trade leaders.

His trip to the Kingdom is basically part of the government’s efforts to get the maximum business deals out of the visit of the monarch. The last time MBS visited Pakistan, the then prime minister Imran Khan drove him to the Prime Minister’s Office at high speed through Islamabad Expressway. Over 1,000 security officials manned the route, bedecked with flags of both nations. The prince was heading a big delegation of state officials and business people, who made mega deals worth over $20 billion.

Those deals included a $10 billion oil refinery at Gwadar. However, no significant progress was made on the main project of the oil refinery and responsible government functionaries like Razzak Dawood, the then advisor to the prime minister, did not refrain from casting doubts on the project and its site. Dawood used to issue irresponsible statements on the mainstream and social media regarding mega projects of international importance and seldom felt the need to update the facts.

For example, he tweeted on March 2, 2021: “We are glad to note that the Istanbul-Tehran-Islamabad (ITI) Freight Train will resume operations from 4 Mar-2021 after nine years.” The train service was not resumed in the month of March but he did not take down that tweet despite the fact that the issue was pointed out in the media.

At that time, Dawood’s statements expressing some kind of capacity issues to deal with such a big project as the oil refinery were mixed up with a narrative that the Saudis are interested in Gwadar on the behest of the US in some kind of effort to outdo China and Iran in the region.

Anti-Americanism thrives like nothing else in Pakistan. The fact of the matter is that at that time, President Donald Trump was having very warm relations with the Kingdom. Similarly, Imran Khan would also have candid discussions and lively press conferences with President Trump in Washington.

Imran Khan still claims that relations between Pakistan and the US were strong when President Trump was in the Oval Office. Notwithstanding his claims, the Trump administration did not appoint an ambassador in Islamabad and restricted movement of Pakistani diplomats in Washington, which is a clear sign of its dislike for Pakistan. To add insult to injury, President Trump had the longest official visit to India.

When Joe Biden replaced Donald Trump as the US president, he gave a cold shoulder to the Kingdom. The top US diplomat, Secretary of State Antony Blinken categorically told the media last year that the US aims to “recalibrate” its relations with the Kingdom in a “very deliberate fashion”. His statement drew a due reaction from the Kingdom, forcing him to tone it down.

The cause of the discord was the Kingdom’s decision to cut oil production in line with the recommendations of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plus allies including Russia.

However deeply the US government might have lobbied to influence the Kingdom on this account, it has been left with few options now as its official diplomatic channels have little room to play.

Standing firm on its decision to cut oil production for the sake of sustainability in the international market, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi held a virtual meeting in which the later endorsed the decision of the OPEC Plus dubbing it “an independent energy policy …to maintain the stability of the international energy market.”

The Saudi foreign minister says that the decision is “purely economic”. In states like the Kingdom, economy is the language of diplomacy and politics.

Big international powers are looking for a way to get fuel and Gwadar is a suitable destination for them. The oil refinery that is top on the agenda of the visit of Prince MBS. It will be set up in Gwadar, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has categorically stated, dashing down all doubts about the project. He also hopes for over $4 billion deposit in the central bank by the Kingdom as an outcome of talks with Prince MBS in Islamabad.

Jawad Akhtar Khokhar, advisor on maritime affairs at Planning Commission, is one of the key people who have the ability to make things clear to the general public. He told me that in 2017-18, Pakistan and the Kingdom had agreed to set up the oil refinery at Gwadar. There is a “petroleum city” being set up there as part of Gwadar Port Master Plan 2006. The concept of this Saudi oil refinery is very rich. Rigs and single point moorings will also be installed on the deep-sea port. Large quantities of crude oil will be refined at this refinery and from Gwadar port, refined oil and its by-products will be delivered to potential clients. “For a layman, it will be kind of a trading point for Saudi oil. At the same time, it will generate jobs and investment opportunities for Pakistanis in general and people of Balochistan in particular.

For international dealers and governments, this refinery will be a blessing as it will reduce their freight time and distance due to the strategic location of Gwadar. It will also benefit Saudi companies who face difficulties in supply of their products when there is tension in the Strait of Hormuz, clarifies Khokhar.

During this visit, Imran Khan may not be driving the monarch through Islamabad Expressway, but he shall see some old faces like President Arif Alvi and Army Chief Gen Qammar Javed Bajwa at important offices. Neither the Kingdom was influenced by the US in 2019, nor has it been now in its decision to set up the refinery in Gwadar as it has all been economic for them. It is not advised to create confusions around issues of global importance as the world is changing and so should we.

The writer teaches mediatization at International Islamic University Islamabad