The case for hot pursuit in Khorasan

Terror has once again reared its ugly head and rocked the entire country. The heinous and immoral attack resulted in mourners, loved ones, family members and relatives witnessing close to a hundred worshippers being mercilessly butchered in broad daylight in a suicide bombing at a mosque in Police Lines, Peshawar.

The outpouring of grief, the collective expression of anger and disbelief was across political lines, ethnicities and religious groups which demonstrates great national resolve. The reprehensible Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), that gained notoriety across the world for perpetrating the heinous Army Public School (APS) attack in 2015, was claimed to be behind this barbaric act. However, the militant group denied their involvement blaming it on the commander of a breakable faction. One thing is clear. Enough is enough and it is high time that policymakers across the board take up the issue of terrorism and eliminate it in letter and spirit.

The Peshawar bombing has revealed an undeniable fact that the Taliban government in Kabul with its extremist orientation and expansionist agenda along with its facilitators, abettors, affiliates and allies are a threat to Pakistan’s peace. It is no secret that since the collapse of the 2022 ceasefire between the federal government and the TTP, the latter reorganised and operated with bases in the restive Khorasan province in Afghanistan to attack Pakistan. With the TTP being allowed to operate with impunity and carry out wanton attacks that destroy the very fabric of Pakistani society, a zero-tolerance approach from all stakeholders must be adopted. The Afghan Taliban through its actions and plausible deniability have made it clear that they cannot be considered a stakeholder for peace with numerous peace efforts, ranging from the Murree Process to the Doha Peace Deal, having collapsed. With the TTP waging a war against the state and the apparent indifference of the Kabul regime, Pakistan needs to weigh its options to deal with terror redux in 2023 and beyond.

One such military strategy is ‘hot pursuit’, which constitutes a direct and urgent pursuit of terror suspects across territorial lines by the military and the aggrieved party. While the risk of souring ties with Afghanistan exists with this approach, Pakistan has no choice, but to uproot the genesis of the issue, which is the TTP’s supply lines, bases and support network in Afghanistan’s Khorasan province. Given that the Taliban regime is isolated internationally, any hue and cry from Kabul over the Pakistan military pursuing legitimate targets and terrorists can easily be muzzled out and dismissed by the international community. Alongside the United States, the majority of countries across the world have castigated the Taliban regime for its failure to uphold human rights, provide equitable access to education for women and conduct draconian punishments. As a result, barring India-Pakistan’s legitimate concerns on terrorism will be heard and should be pursued.

The case of hot pursuit is strengthened over how there exists incontrovertible evidence that the TTP is operating from within Afghanistan. The TTP fighters, for example, pledged allegiance to the head of the Afghan Taliban, Abdullah Khan. Yet, at the same time, the Afghan Taliban and the TTP claim to have different objectives. While the TTP believes in combating the Pakistani state and launching suicide attacks against innocent civilians in worship places, the Afghan Taliban’s agenda centres on ousting foreign forces. Yet, the latter is providing safe haven to the former and is allied with the TTP, which is why attacks are taking place with impunity. The Afghan Taliban rulers are also not honouring their commitment of not allowing their soil to be used for transnational attacks and turning a blind eye to attacks in Pakistan is evidence of this fact.

The massive casualty toll in Peshawar is an anathema for peace and simply inhumane. It attacks Pakistan at the very core given the precarious economic situation in the country. As a result, the people of Pakistan cannot afford repeated tragedies of this magnitude. The cost of terrorist attacks amounts to billions of dollars and a soft approach towards dealing with the menace will only exasperate existing problems related to sovereign debt, the declining exchange rate, IMF’s structural reforms and rising inflation. Rising extremism within Pakistani society is another issue that requires immediate attention, and growing radicalism domestically will only compound existing quagmires.

However, hot pursuit in Khorasan does have its perils. The Islamic State in the Khorasan province has an active presence, and is committing ruthless attacks not only against Pakistan, but also in Afghanistan with global ambitions. Risking the lives of Pakistani soldiers against one of the most ruthless terrorist organisations in the world will be a choice that policymakers will have to make. The National Assembly session called in immediately after the heinous blast took place pointed at the possibility of launching a nationwide operation. But uprooting the TTP necessitates options that are extraterritorial.

Alongside kinetic approaches is important to adopt non-kinetic strategies as well. The National Action Plan was established by the government of Pakistan in December 2014 to uproot terrorism and prosecute all individuals guilty of committing crimes against humanity. The indiscriminate approach undertaken by the Pakistani state previously has squandered into oblivion. It needs to be revived in its entirety. The nation is in a state of emergency and cannot afford laxity in any domain.

Hence, Pakistan retains the option of going for hot pursuit to bring the perpetrators of the Peshawar massacre to justice.

The writer is an Assistant Research Associate at IPRI