The threat of AUKUS

AUKUS is a trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, which was announced on 15 September 2021. AUKUS is aimed at the US and the UK enabling Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines.

Before the formal announcement of the pact, which also includes cooperation on “cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies and additional undersea capabilities”, the agreement was shrouded in secrecy.

AUKUS does not focus on Australia’s procurement of nuclear submarines only, but also supports Australian purchase of new long-range strike capabilities for its air force, navy and army. Under the pact, the US will share nuclear propulsion technology with the Royal Australian Navy, which will acquire at least eight nuclear-powered submarines armed with conventional weapons to be built in Australia.

Australia will also extend the life of its Collins-class submarines, which were due to be replaced. Simultaneously, the Australians may consider leasing or buying nuclear-powered submarines from the US or the UK in the interim until the delivery of its future nuclear-powered submarines.

The declaration of the launch of AUKUS caused heartburn in two allies of its member nations, France and India, besides the expression of apprehension by littoral states in the Indo-Pacific region. Only two days after the announcement of AUKUS, on 17^th September 2021, France, recalled its ambassadors from Australia and the US, with French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian calling the new security pact a “stab in the back”. The strong reaction was precipitated by Australia’s cancellation of the French-Australian submarine deal worth €56 billion without notice, terminating a strategic partnership between France and Australia.

Interestingly, in 2009, when the Royal Australian Navy had announced plans to replace its conventionally powered Collins-class submarines, an Australian Defence White Paper had categorically ruled out nuclear propulsion for its new submarines. In 2019, Australia signed a strategic partnership agreement with France to design and construct twelve submarines to be built in Australia. Although the project was beset by delays and cost overruns, leading to uncertainty and tension behind the scenes, in June 2021, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison met French president Emmanuel Macron in Paris, who had reassured the Australians of the “full and complete” commitment of France. Consequently, on 30^th August 2021, the French and Australian Defense and Foreign Affairs Ministers released a joint statement reaffirming the project.

Less than three weeks later, Australia decided to cancel the contract with France for the Attack-class submarines despite having already spent about $2.4 billion on the French project. The French reacted with anguish, although the French Ambassadors withdrawn from the US and Australia, have now returned to their posts after assurances from both host countries, but the tiff with UK persists.

India, a member of Quad (the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, established in 2007, comprising India, US, Japan and Australia) ostensibly to contain China in the Indo-Pacific region, was taken by surprise with the announcement of AUKUS, since it fears that Quad has been sidelined.

Some Indian analysts opine that AUKUS is the betrayal of the US with France whom New Delhi considers a crucial partner in the Indian Ocean and has numerous defence deals with. A few Indian critics perceive the AUKUS being a double game with France, a member of NATO, and fear that India might meet a similar fate. Objective Indian defence analysts are uneasy that the AUKUS is highly likely to trigger a crowding of nuclear attack submarines in the Eastern Indian Ocean, diminishing New Delhi’s conventional underwater capability and regional supremacy, while the Australian nuclear submarine capability is likely to surpass India’s own in coming years.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is disturbed by AUKUS, with the Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob expressing his fear that the AUKUS would “provoke other powers to act more aggressively in the region, especially in the South China Sea.”

Indonesia has observed that AUKUS could trigger an arms race in the region and be detrimental to nuclear non-proliferation. Reacting to AUKUS, New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern issued a statement reiterating New Zealand’s stance that no nuclear submarines were permitted in its waters. North Korea condemned the deal as ‘extremely undesirable and dangerous’, stating that the moves will destroy the nuclear non-proliferation system.

AUKUS has apparently been planned against the People’s Republic of China (PRC), without naming it. PRC’s foreign affairs department spokesperson Zhao Lijian declared that the nuclear submarine cooperation between the US, the UK and Australia has seriously undermined regional peace and stability, intensified the arms race and undermined international non-proliferation efforts. The Chinese Foreign Ministry also declared that China is firmly opposed to the US, the UK and Australia’s “malicious exploitation of loopholes in the NPT (Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons) and the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) safeguards mechanism.”

Many western security specialists, scholars and politicians consider the agreement to transfer US or UK nuclear submarine technology, including possibly highly enriched uranium, as an act of nuclear proliferation and fear that it will set the wrong precedent. IAEA, the world’s nuclear watchdog will have nightmares reining in Iran et-al since what’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.

Nevertheless, the AUKUS announcement has led to heightened uncertainty in the region, evoking regional countries to prepare for consequences, likely to unfold in the future.

The writer is a former Group Captain PAF and an author.