Tough choices and consequences

Shut them up. Shoot the messenger. Gag them. These are choices that the government and its handlers are making to handle the growing unrest in Pakistan.

“You are free to choose. You are not free to escape the consequences,” said Howard G Hendricks. That is the dilemma of life. Life is all about making choices. The quality of choices that we make in the long run determines the quality of our life. This stands true for personal, professional and even political spheres of living. People, organizations, and nations many times regret certain decisions taken in the past that led to unwanted results. When these choices were being made, there was pressure on taking a certain direction. That direction may or may not lead to the destinies that they wanted. That is why choices are such important and powerful human acts. Unfortunately, making rational and unbiased choices is very tough. That is why when we seek the easy way out that may not lead to the consequences we want.

Pakistan and Pakistanis these days are faced with tough choices. The country is going through economic crisis and political uncertainty. The lethal combination has made Pakistan become arguably a case that may be following the Sri Lankan model of disaster.

The difference between Pakistan and Sri Lanka is that in Sri Lanka is that the economic crisis plunged the country into a political crisis. Tourism receipts slipped. As of April, inflation in Sri Lanka was as high as 29.8%, while food inflation climbed to almost 47%. In Pakistan, the political crisis caused the economic crisis. Before the change of the government, Pakistan experienced its highest GDP growth for two years running. Exports broke all records. Industry growth spiralled and agriculture had bumper crops. However, the the dynastic politics of the Sri Lankan Rajapaksa brothers and the dynasty politics of Pakistan’s Sharif brothers weave a similar pattern.

The government, based on coalition of all major parties, except PTI and JI, is almost dysfunctional. The institutions are toothless. The media is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. The judiciary is under immense pressure. The public is in anguish. This is the moment of difficult choices. But that is why this period of history will define the next few decades because all important players will have to choose to be or not to be:

1. The coalition government – PDM and allies have, for the sake of the government, forsaken a lot. Their choice was to go for the quick take and not go into the election. This choice had a consequence. The resultant economic disaster and the rise of opposition popularity is a price they will pay. The problem is that they claimed they made this choice due to the bad conditions of the economy but it has worsened. Their focus on making institutions toothless has become obvious and gives substance to the opposition claims of it being a scheme for giving relief to themselves rather than relief to the public. This choice may have seemed to be a great step for them to create an enabling environment to control the establishment machinery to manoeuvre the by elections. However, it is bound to increase the public angst that may cost them the elections. Thus, it is a few months rule vs long term credibility choice for the government.

2. The opposition – The opposition is literally a one-party show. The PTI led by Imran Khan is leading a massive protest movement. Many feel that their choices are leading them to a dead end. They should not have resigned from the National Assembly and should not have taken on the establishment. These choices will have consequences that will damage their party forever. PTI has succeeded in winning popular support by taking them all on. History is loaded against this choice. In Pakistan, no political change not backed by the establishment has ever been successful. Thus, the choice for PTI is to continue and become history or create such a storm that history is made.

3. The establishment – The establishment has shown its true colours. They are the major incognito political movers and shakers. The regime change operation has been “handled” by them. They are right in using their almost 100% tested formula of engineering the electoral process. Vote of no-confidence is even easier to manipulate. Establishment was expecting that this change will also create ripples but would die down. It has rebounded in a manner they are not used to. The more the resistance, the more their strong arm tactics. After backing the government’s brutal crackdown on 25th May, they are now gagging opinion makers. Ayaz Ameer and Imran Riaz Khan are just the beginning. These choices of retaliation are fuelling even more resistance. It has now reached a stage where they can just continue till the public repeats a Turkey like resistance when the military was taking over or do damage control and let the elections decide on merit.

4. The media – Media is in a big dilemma. Born and bred on government favours, many thought that after the curtailment of media spending by PTI, the return of PMLN and cronies would open up the closed wallets. And it did. Their choice of covering Maryam more than Imran Khan has made them lose their biggest money spinners, i.e. the viewers. In a recent simultaneous jalsa, the channel showing Imran Khan’s viewership and the channels showing both leaders but muting Imran Khan while voicing Maryam’s speech had an embarrassing difference of almost 30 points in viewership. Media is thus faced with the dilemma of basking in government favours and losing their viewers and becoming just another version of PTV.

5. The public – Public has become the real hurdle in the establishment game. While playing the PTI gameover plan, the establishment was not prepared for the unintended consequence of the ouster of PTI government. With each day the public is continuously hammering the establishment on social media. Establishment trying to pin it on PTI has not worked. Overseas Pakistanis and locals have taken on this fights. They have made the choice that they are not going to let Pakistan be hostage to a few powerful players internationally and a few power brokers domestically. That is the main difference between previous changes of government and now. From Zulfikar Ali Bhutto to Nawaz Sharif, the public never really came out on their ouster. The present public outrage is unprecedented. The public is in a dangerous mood as they make this choice of going all out and risk their lives and livelihoods or just feel frustrated and do the traditional drawing room bashing.

For Pakistan, it is a defining time. Something will give way. By breaking the taboos, the norms, the limits, the ceiling and, most importantly, by breaking the mindset. The mindset that chooses status quo. The real battle is in making choices with a new way of thinking to bring real change in Pakistan. It is an opportunity to start anew. As Thomas Kuhn said “All significant breakthroughs are break-‘withs’ old ways of thinking.”

The writer is a columnist, consultant, coach, and an analyst