When Rome was burning

Stock market slides, nose dives and crashes. Rupee slides and is on almost a free fall. IMF refuses to negotiate. Saudi Arabia refuses more concessions. UAE shrugs their shoulders. Prices rise and spiral. Comparisons with Sri Lanka start.

Where is the government? And then there are selfies of a happy bunch of ministers in the comfort of the C Suite of British Airways. There are photo ops of them sitting in silence in the opulent offices of their real boss. There are videos of them sitting in restaurants. This contrast is reflective of the fable of the cruel Roman leader Nero. A great fire devastated Rome for six days in the summer of AD 64. According to Tacitus, a contemporary Roman historian, half of the city’s population was displaced, and the fire destroyed 70% of the city’s infrastructure. Nero was at Antium, his villa outside Rome, playing his favourite music on fiddle. The present coalition government has a history of being away on disasters. The PPP leadership spent time in Dubai when floods were sweeping Pakistan in 2010.

In the first 30 days, the prime minister has gone on four foreign tours. The prime minister has been running back and forth to Khuzdar and Karachi, but for what, nobody knows. It has become such an embarrassment that their own party workers and their dedicated column writers/anchors have started criticizing them. After series of long meetings in London spread over days to decide the fate of petroleum prices, they have come back exactly with this decision that they have decided that they must decide. This is an excellent revelation of their calibre and character. Let us look at some disastrous miscalculations that happened and that are likely to happen as this government lingers:

Need, greed and speed – This strange vote of no-confidence, that is the only such vote that has been successful in Pakistan, was actually a failure because it not only stalled and dented an economy that had just started stabilizing, but also weakened the government’s own political capital. Many analysts wonder why the hurry for them to get into this mess. The answer is a mix of lust of power and the need to wash off their criminal past and present. With cases/references due on the present PM and CM Punjab, they were in a hurry to get into a position to quash them. Of course, the need to play the big and all mighty political heavy weights is and will always be irresistible for these fake democracy dynasties.

The establishment miscalculation – Regime changes are, if not directly, then indirectly sponsored by establishment of the world. Even more so in Pakistan. And more easily in a vote of no-confidence that requires just a few votes to swing the establishment way. There are whispers about how it was not planned like this and how it has become a misadventure that is getting darker the hour. If there is one stakeholder who is in a quandary, that is definitely the establishment who are ruing this turn of events. The sad part is that the miscalculation was not on how this government would work or behave or manage. That was a given, considering their criminal records and history. What the public is hurt by is that the miscalculation rued by the establishment is not destruction of the economy, but an unprecedented public response. This has really spurred, unstoppable reaction. At the moment, neither the government nor the establishment know how to deal with it.
The deadlock plethora – The main players in the ouster are on mute with each other. The government is not talking to the opposition. The opposition is not talking to the government and the establishment. The establishment is saying that they “do not want to be dragged in politics” and are “neutral”. This presents a political impasse of the worse type. Decision making has become hostage to distrust, panic and presumption. This has created uncertainty, lack of direction and clarity, hesitance and reluctance. All ingredients of fatal negativity. In terms of the cost to economy, it is and will be disastrous.

This economic haemorrhaging and political dysfunctionality cannot last. Something will give way. For that something to be on the path of damage control and revival the following needs to happen:

Act before you are acted upon – The state of affairs in the country since 4th March 2022 is a nightmare. The friction, the fight and now extreme fright. The manner of ousting a running government, the style of take over, and the utter paralysis of a clueless government is a recipe of a disaster turning into a catastrophe. The dollar crossed Rs.200 and the reserves are in a nosedive. It is important for the sponsors of this parliamentary coup to act and provide an interim government based on technocrats to provide life-saving ICU measures to the economy. If this does not happen, there is not only a danger to descend into a Sri Lankan nightmare, but also the very existence of the structure of this country will be vulnerable to all security risks.

Sustainable public pressure – The opposition and the sponsors made a major miscalculation in predicting public reaction. They are taken aback by it. If the first was off the mark, the second miscalculation is that this public pressure will taper off. On the contrary, it will increase. Already we are seeing segments like the army officers, the police officers, housewives who never turned up, being in the forefront of this movement. As time goes by, there will be more political taboos being torn apart. This will only worsen the situation to an extent where the sponsors will find it impossible to retreat, retrieve or revive what they have started.
New Pakistan order – For Pakistan, a new order is a must out of this disorder. For any government that comes next they must do a radical rethink, redesign and re implement of change that is real and sustainable. The first signal that the contesting parties are going for real change is by their candidate selection. The old electables, the dynastic families should be replaced by new blood. Simultaneously, the people of Pakistan should not choose faces that are status quo. Rather they should ensure that they support new faces by supporting and sponsoring new candidates to victory. The new government must have a diverse and fresh cabinet that is ready with reforms and policies. These reforms must reflect a Pakistan that is finally emerging as a country in the ranks of Turkey or Malaysia.

Anything is possible with the collective will of people. There are many lessons to learn from a situation that may seem impossible, unbearable and irreparable. All stakeholders, whether politicians or institutions, are unsteady and reeling with the shock of public criticism. Who would have thought that there will be a day when the mighty, manipulators will be on their knees due to a collective public resolve to strip them of their pretence of bravery, righteousness and power. This is a tipping point in the nation’s real public domination. This augurs for a public uprising that can rise beyond politics, positions and conspiracy and put the country on the road to independence and prosperity.

The writer is a columnist, consultant, coach, and an analyst