Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro has ‘every chance’ of winning elections

• Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has “every chance” of winning re-election.
• Gabiati: Bolsonaro’s campaign has made good use of the September 7th Brazilian independence protests.
• Gabiati adds that a month prior, it appeared probable that Lula would secure an absolute majority in the first round of voting.

A political analyst believes that Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently trailing in the pre-election polls but has seen the margin between him and his left-wing competitor Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva close, has “every chance” of winning re-election.

Prior to the presidential election in October, there was a polling difference between the two front-runners that had decreased by 10 points during the previous four months.

According to polls by the standard organisation Datafolha, Bolsonaro trailed Lula by 21 points at the end of May, but that difference had shrunk to 11 points by last Friday.

Some of the factors that are currently manifesting themselves in Brazil’s presidential campaign were described to AFP by Leandro Gabiati, director of consultancy firm Dominica.

Where did Bolsonaro’s recent positive trend originate?
Recently, Bolsonaro has “made very few mistakes,” according to Gabiati.

“Generally speaking, he has benefited from the exceptional social spending approved by Congress in July, and other measures to combat inflation,” he said.

“That has enabled him to improve the population’s perception of their purchasing power, which had been Bolsonaro’s main handicap.”

Food is still expensive, but fuel prices have decreased and the government has increased the monthly assistance paid to Brazil’s 20 million poorest families from 400 to 600 reais ($79 to $118).

Bolsonaro has been less belligerent recently, according to Gabiati, and has made less attacks on governmental institutions like the electoral process and the Supreme Court, despite making two mistakes on television in which he reacted angrily to two female reporters.

“That helped reassure the more moderate electorate,” Gabiati said.

How has the race been impacted by the September 7th Brazilian independence protests, during which Bolsonaro waved from an open-top car?

In essence, the impact has been “extremely beneficial,” according to Gabiati.

He said, “With a crowd as far as the eye can see, the news channels showed him all day surrounded by many (supporting) demonstrators.”

According to Gabiati, Bolsonaro’s campaign also made good use of the photos on social media, which he claimed ultimately outweighed criticism from opponents who claimed the president had appropriated the national festival for his own political purposes.

Is there still a hope for Jair Bolsonaro to win re-election?

“Yes definitely,” Gabiati replied.

He claimed that a month prior, it appeared probable that Lula would secure an absolute majority in the first round of voting. However, it currently appears to be “practically impossible.”

“Lula has stagnated in the polls, he seems to have hit a ceiling,” Gabiati said.

Even still, Bolsonaro won’t be able to catch up if the polling deficit narrows any further at the current pace.

However, Gabiati adds, nothing is final until Brazilians cast their ballots on October 2 and October 30, and they will have plenty of opportunity between now and then to change their views.

“Bolsonaro is in a new dynamic, with re-energized supporters,” he said.

“He still has every chance.”

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