Midterm Elections: Seven Things to Keep an Eye On

• It’s unlikely that Democrats will control the House in 2022.
• The party is on the offensive in House races all over the country, but especially in districts that Biden won easily just two years ago.
• Polls show that the races in Nevada, New Hampshire, Arizona and Georgia are the most close.

The midterm elections for 2022 have arrived, and here are seven things to keep an eye on during the midterm elections on Tuesday:

Who will be in charge of the House?

Most Democrats agree on one of Tuesday night’s big stories: it’s unlikely that the party will be in charge of the legislative chamber in January. Since Republicans only need to gain a net of five seats to take the majority, the chances of them taking back the House are high. The party is on the offensive in House races all over the country, but especially in districts that Biden won easily just two years ago. These include districts in Rhode Island, New York, and Oregon that were once thought to be safe for the Democrats.

Who will control the Senate?

If control of the House seems like a loss that Democrats can’t avoid, control of the Senate, which is currently split evenly, is a surprising bright spot for the party. This is because voters don’t like Republican candidates and don’t like how Biden is doing his job. Polls show that the races in Nevada, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Georgia, where the Democratic incumbents who are most likely to lose, are the most close. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which Biden won just two years ago, the party is now on the offensive.

Election deniers in key swing states:

Republicans who have repeated the lies of former President Donald Trump about widespread voter fraud want to take over the election machinery in some swing states. The results in these states could have big effects in 2024, when Trump is likely to run for president again and candidates in key swing states are looking for positions they can use to try to go against what voters want.

Election deniers in key swing states:

Republicans who have repeated the lies of former President Donald Trump about widespread voter fraud want to take over the election machinery in some swing states. The results in these states could have big effects in 2024, when Trump is likely to run for president again and candidates in key swing states are looking for positions they can use to try to go against what voters want.

Will Latino voters keep moving to the right?

Republicans will be watching to see if they built on the gains Trump made with Latino voters two years ago. In the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley in Texas, there are three House races that will tell part of the story. In Arizona, Nevada, and Miami-Dade County, Florida, Latino voters are also an important part of the electorate.

The effect of presidential politics:

Biden said at a fundraiser on Friday, “If we lose the House and Senate, it’s going to be a terrible two years.” In the last few weeks, former President Barack Obama campaigned for candidates in Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. On Saturday, at his last rally in Philadelphia, he made this point very clear.

The ones who make waves (or break them):

Even if a few big races are too close to call, the shape of Congress for the next two years could become pretty clear in the first few hours after the polls close on the East Coast. Even if the Democrats lost two of the three races, it would be a very, very bad night. Both nationally and in some states, the party has put more and more of its election hopes on the notoriously fickle suburbs. If a Republican wave is coming, the Atlantic seaboard will be the first place to see high tides.

Wait

Most Americans found out two years ago that Election Day is not always what it sounds like. Tuesday is the last day to vote. But in many states, it’s also the time when the count starts. This means that a lot of close races might not be decided until the wee hours or even later this week. This is partly because counting and sometimes recounting takes time, but it’s also because state laws tell poll workers how to do their jobs and, in some states, force them to wait until later in the day to do them.

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