Myanmar junta prepares for poll, raising fears of more bloodshed

• .The country’s military is planning elections.
• An election cannot be free and fair under the current circumstances.
• The political opposition has been crushed.

BANGKOK: Two years after a coup ended Myanmar‘s brief democratic experiment, the country’s military is planning elections that analysts say could result in more violence as opposition to junta rule grows.

According to observers, the proposed election cannot be free and fair under the current circumstances, with one analyst characterizing it as a mere “show” aimed at justifying the junta’s hold on power.

Allegations of voter fraud in the November 2020 election, which was won resoundingly by democracy figurehead Aung San Suu Kyi‘s party, provided the army with a justification to seize control on February 1, 2021.

Despite the fact that the charges were never proven, the generals detained Suu Kyi and other prominent civilian officials in a series of pre-dawn raids.

The political opposition has been crushed, and the junta is now likely to organize a new election later this year – no later than August, according to the constitution.

With opposition blazing from the borders’ steep jungles to the plains of the army’s traditional recruiting grounds, citizens throughout large swaths of the country are unlikely to vote — and run the risk of reprisals if they do.

Any junta-run election will be “like a cart with only one wheel,” according to a former government servant in Yangon who has been on strike since the takeover. “There is no way that will produce any development,” he added, asking to remain anonymous for fear of retaliation.

Lin Lin, a member of one of the dozens of “People’s Defence Force” groups fighting the junta in the jungle near the Thai border, claimed polls would have no influence on their mission to remove the military from Myanmar politics.

“We will keep our weapons until we have a democratically elected government,” he said.

Elections

The junta-imposed state of emergency is set to expire at the end of January, at which point the constitution requires the authorities to call new elections.

Although the government of junta supremo Min Aung Hlaing has not established a date, it did give all current and aspiring political parties two months to register with its election commission last week.

Military officials are attempting to assemble a broad enough patchwork of constituents to make an election credible, including ethnic rebel groups that have avoided the post-coup upheaval and smaller, regional parties.

However, voting will most certainly be difficult in many parts of the country, according to Htwe Htwe Thein of Curtin University in Australia.

“In areas where they do have power, people may be forced to vote, and vote for the junta-affiliated party or parties,” she told.

“People would very certainly expect to be watched — and there could be consequences for not voting or voting against the junta.”

Anti-coup fighters have also threatened people assisting with the poll, with local media reporting several attacks on teams validating voter lists in Yangon’s economic center.

The junta’s “technical ability to organize anything approaching even blatantly fabricated elections will be limited by a lack of institutional capacity, uncertainty, boycotts, and violence,” according to independent expert David Mathieson.

Any poll would be “far from legitimate,” Mathieson said.

“Remember, these aren’t genuine elections. They’re a shambolic performance designed to legitimize the (junta’s) coup d’etat accusations of a rigged 2020 election “He stated.

Did this reassure investors?

Some of Adani’s companies rose somewhat on Monday, while investors continued to sell Adani stock, wiping out billions more in market value.

According to Hindenburg, just roughly 30 pages of the Adani statement dealt with topics relating to its findings.

“The remainder of the response consisted of 330 pages of court records, as well as 53 pages of high-level financials, general information, and details on unrelated company activities, such as how it fosters female entrepreneurship and the cultivation of safe veggies,” the statement added.

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