NATO chief’s planned departure reintroduces the succession race

• Nato’s long-serving leader will step down in October.
• There is no agreement on who should succeed Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg.
• The mandate of Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has been extended three times.

BRUSSELS – The NATO alliance revealed Sunday that its long-serving leader would step down in October, sparking new speculation about his replacement.

According to diplomats in Brussels, there is no agreement on who should succeed former Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg as the Western alliance’s top civilian official.

Some NATO allies were discussing extending his already nine-year tenure to oversee NATO’s reaction to the crisis triggered by Russia’s conflict with Ukraine.

However, shortly after Stoltenberg returned from high-level discussions in Washington on Sunday, his spokesman announced that he would step down later this year.

“The mandate of Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has been extended three times and he has served for a total of almost nine years,” spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said.

“The secretary general’s term comes to an end in October of this year and he has no intention to seek another extension of his mandate.”

The 63-year-decision old’s to step down will focus attention on the race among senior European officials to replace him, with nations already quietly floating candidates in news media leaks.

The secretary-general has always been a European, even if Washington has the last say on his — or, perhaps, this time, her — selection.

Is it time for a woman?

And, while the day-to-day duty is to coordinate and seek consensus among the 30 members, the choice itself will be considered indicative of NATO’s orientation. – Is it time for a woman? When Stoltenberg’s future was in doubt the last time — in February 2022, when he was appointed future president of the Norwegian central bank, only to withdraw later – speculation centered on women.

For seven decades, the alliance has been led by a succession of Western European men, and many observers believed it was time for a woman or an Easterner to assume the helm.

The last four NATO commanders appear to have been chosen for an anti-clockwise tour around the North Sea coast, with a Briton being followed by a Dutchman, a Dane, and now a Norwegian.

Meanwhile, the alliance’s strategic attention has switched to the coalition’s eastern flank, where younger NATO members on the Baltic and Black Sea beaches face an aggressive Russia.

Poland and the Baltic countries now consider their long-standing warnings about Moscow as valid, and they have led calls to arm and help Ukraine in the event of an invasion.

As a result, proposals have been made for NATO to choose a person such as Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte or her Estonian counterpart Kaja Kallas.

Both have long adopted a firm diplomatic posture with Russia, which may appeal to more hawkish friends but may backfire in some capitals.

Who is it?

Some say that selecting a Balt would be too provocative to Russia, bringing the allies — who currently arm and pay Kyiv’s soldiers — closer to direct conflict with Moscow.

More cynical observers, including some NATO officials, believe Kallas has been an overly effective advocate for the eastern stance, causing animosity in western capitals.

So, if not a hawkish Balt, who is it?

Although no official candidatures have been revealed, diplomats in Brussels believe the Netherlands will promote its defense minister, Kajsa Ollongren.

Meanwhile, Britain has already produced three secretaries-general in the alliance’s history and has historically viewed itself as a bridge between Europe and the United States.

Britain’s defense secretary, Ben Wallace, is frequently mentioned as a prospective contender, but it may not sit well with the 21 NATO partners who are also members of the European Union. – There is no agreement -Britain made friends in Ukraine as an early and vociferous supporter of its defense, but Brexit strained London’s ties with many EU capitals.

This leaves NATO’s southern flank open, with former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, 75, and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis allegedly in the running.

Finally, what if NATO chose a non-European secretary general for the first time, perhaps a Canadian like Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland?

“There is no consensus,” one senior NATO official admitted, amid reports that US President Joe Biden’s White House had yet to consider succession.

Stoltenberg assumed command of NATO’s headquarters in Brussels on October 1, 2014, and has led the Western alliance through various geopolitical crises.

The final NATO and US forces left Afghanistan in August 2021, just before the capital Kabul fell to victorious Taliban forces.

Stoltenberg also led NATO’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the ongoing war, the bloodiest on European soil since the 1940s.

Under previous US President Donald Trump, a frequent NATO critic, he has been a respected secretary-general and, in particular, a bridge between European allies and Washington.

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