Markets mixed as inflation, rate worries temper rally

Markets were uneven on Tuesday as investors fought to keep a worldwide rally going, with inflation still a concern due to a rise in oil prices, and a top Fed member calling for a series of rate hikes.

However, data showing a rebound in China’s important industrial sector, aided by the relaxation of some tight Covid control regulations in big areas such as Shanghai, bolstered hope.

With Wall Street closed for a holiday, there were few catalysts to help extend the gains enjoyed in recent days, allowing inflation and borrowing costs to take center stage.

Crude prices built on Monday’s advance after the European Union reached a deal on a partial embargo of Russian imports as part of a punishment for its invasion of Ukraine.

Brent broke above $122 for the first time in two months and WTI sat around $117 as European chiefs said the latest sanctions would ban purchases of Russian oil delivered by sea, though there would be a temporary exemption for pipelines.

While widely expected, the agreement adds further upside to crude just as China begins to ease Covid restrictions in Shanghai and Beijing, raising the likelihood of a jump in demand from the world’s number two economy.

The lift in oil prices will help fan already elevated inflation and pile further pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy to prevent prices from running out of control.

In a sign of the struggle, policymakers face, German prices are rising at their fastest pace ever while Spain’s topped forecasts.

In the United States, the chances of an extended period of rate hikes were increased after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he favored half-point hikes “for several meetings” until inflation slows towards the bank’s two percent target.

Waller added that his goal was in line with market expectations, which is about 2.75 percent in December.

President Joe Biden is due to hold talks with Fed boss Jerome Powell on Tuesday to discuss the inflation situation.

Jobs data on Friday will provide an update on the state of the US economy in light of soaring prices and rising rates.

The prospect of a period of rates rising higher for longer lifted the dollar against the euro, pound, and yen as well as other currencies.

In Asia, there was some much-needed cheer from data showing China’s manufacturing shrunk in May at a slower rate than expected.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) — a key gauge of manufacturing activity — hit 49.6 last month, improving from April’s 47.4, which was the worst reading since early 2020.

However, it remained below the 50-point mark separating growth from contraction and showed the Chinese economy was still struggling.

Jeffrey Halley at OANDA said: “A less bad than expected set of data has prompted a modest rally in China equities today, holding the promise of an accelerating recovery in June if the virus situation remains benign.”

But he warned: “That’s a big if.”

Hong Kong and Shanghai rose more than one percent, while Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Jakarta, Bangkok, and Wellington also advanced.

Tokyo, Sydney, Mumbai, and Manila all experienced losses.

London increased a smidgeon, but Paris and Frankfurt fell.

Chris Iggo of AXA Investment Managers said that another 10-15 percent drop in stock prices was still possible.

“The mood is temporarily better in markets,” he said, adding, “I think the worst is over for bond markets but picking the bottom in equities is trickier.”

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.3 percent at 27,279.80 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.4 percent at 21,415.20 (close)

Shanghai – Composite: UP 1.2 percent at 3,186.43 (close)

London – FTSE 100: UP 0.2 percent at 7,618.02

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0740 from $1.0779 on Monday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2616 from $1.2650

Euro/pound: DOWN at 85.13 pence from 85.21 pence

Dollar/yen: UP at 127.90 yen from 127.59 yen

Brent North Sea crude: UP 1.4 percent at $123.31 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 3.1 percent at $118.63

New York – Dow: Closed for a holiday

Read More: Equity markets extend rally as China eases curbs

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