An uncertain new year

Pakistan enters a new year amidst speculations about a caretaker government, consisting of technocrats, to be installed. While all the mainstream political parties, including the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), have rejected the idea altogether, there are many leading experts and civil society members who think that under the present circumstances, when Pakistan remains stuck in continuing and aggravating political and economic crises, this remains the only way forward for the country. Although no political player or institution seems to take ownership of the rumours concerning the caretaker set-up, with a slightly long term mandate — which ironically has no constitutional provision –, those pushing the case make some strong arguments against the existing set-up.

Firstly, a government eying the next general elections – whether held early or on time, by October or November, 2023 – will not go for the painful economic and institutional reforms required by Pakistan right now, at this critical juncture. Already, the half-measures taken by the Shehbaz Sharif-led government to get the IMF’s stalled programme back on track under the stewardship of former finance minister Miftah Ismail resulted in a lot of criticism, not just from the general public and the opposition, but also from within the ruling coalition. After Miftah’s departure from the finance ministry, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) brought its so-called ace-economic wizard, Ishaq Dar, to run the economy. But Dar’s antics not just stalled the IMF programme again, but his financial juggling landed Pakistan into a greater economic mess, from where there seems to be no easy way out.

Therefore, to expect the Pakistan Democratic Movement’s (PDM) government to go for any meaningful reforms in the remaining few months in power – at the most eight – would be false expectations. The only way this government could be forced to carry out the reforms will be if it gets a longer mandate, which is not possible without delaying the general elections for a year or two – a desire of some of the PDM’s bigwigs. But even for this, the government will have to do away with Dar type economic management and push for reforms under a new set of financial managers. This is easier said than done on four accounts. One, that under a PML-N government, no one but Dar is seen competent to run the economy because he is not just a close aide of three-time premier Nawaz Sharif, but his son is also married to the self-exiled former premier’s daughter. When family interests are so entrenched, there is hardly any room left for rational and objective decision-making.

The second objection of those calling for an immediate caretaker set-up is that the Shehbaz Sharif government lacks credibility and trust of the people because of the allegations of corruption and misrule against its top leaders. A government lacking credibility and popularity is hardly in a position to push for reforms, and is likely to face stiff resistance from the general public even if it does so.

Thirdly, with an incomplete National Assembly (NA), where one-sided and self-serving legislations are being done, expecting political stability and pushing any agenda for reforms is not just undoable, but even unthinkable. And fourthly, Imran Khan, despite his anti-government campaign having apparently lost steam, remains a potent challenge for the government. The fact that he and his party are staying out of the NA and are in a continuous protest mode will keep the government under pressure and unsettled. Under these circumstances the installation of a caretaker government led by technocrats could act as a buffer between the warring political interest groups and help defuse the situation.

For the PDM, it would mean getting some time to revive its political fortunes, given the public’s short memory. As for the PTI, Imran Khan’s arch nemeses – the Sharifs, Zardaris and Fazl – won’t be in the driving seat. The caretakers can take all the tough economic decisions needed to revive the economy, and create a conducive environment for the next general elections to be held in a transparent and fair manner. However, the first hitch here is who would bell the cat – meaning who will decide the caretakers acceptable to both the rival sets of politicians. The second hitch is how to give legal and constitutional cover to a caretaker set-up beyond its three-month mandate. Here, perhaps the judiciary can step in.

All of this is wishful thinking and speculation for now, without any solid basis and ownership from the powers that matter. However, under these abnormal circumstances, when all else fails, this may prove to be the last option. The plan needs to be seriously explored and implemented before it is too late.

Yes, 2023 welcomes Pakistan with all its uncertainties and risks. May it, hopefully, still be a happy new year!