According to a US intelligence report, Russia’s ‘Escalate to De-Escalate’ doctrine could include the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine

The senior Russian diplomat made these remarks after Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told CNN that Putin would use nuclear weapons if Russia faced an existential threat.

“It’s not right to threaten Russia and try to interfere.” “Of course, when dealing with a nuclear power, you have to calculate all the possible outcomes of your behaviour,” Polyanskiy added.

In late February, Putin instructed top Russian defence officials in a televised meeting to place Russian nuclear forces on high alert in response to “aggressive comments” made by “top officials in leading NATO countries” about Russia.

In late February, Putin instructed top Russian defence officials in a televised meeting to place Russian nuclear forces on high alert in response to “aggressive comments” made by “top officials in leading NATO countries” about Russia.
The move was described as “provocative” and “the height of irresponsibility” by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

The United States and its European allies believe that their supply of weapons to Ukraine has enabled Kyiv to mount a stiff resistance against invading Russian armed forces, and that Putin may resort to nuclear weapons due to his frustration over heavy losses of Russian military equipment and dwindling capacity to renew it.

Strategic And Tactical Nukes

According to experts, the risk in Ukraine is the use of “tactical” nuclear weapons with smaller warheads that will cause localised devastation rather than giant “strategic” nuclear weapons.

Strategic nuclear weapons are used to break the enemy’s will by destroying its ability to wage war by targeting strategic assets such as important cities where a country’s top leadership is based or key manufacturing locations, raw material sources, stockpiles, transportation and communication systems, and so on.

Tactical nuclear weapons, on the other hand, are used to make quick battlefield gains against opposing forces and are thus limited to military operations.

The two types of weapons also have different delivery systems. Long-range missiles are used to deliver strategic weapons, whereas tactical weapons are delivered using shorter-range delivery systems such as artillery, short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or aircraft.

The side of these tactical weapons’ nuclear warheads can range from 1 kiloton or less – equivalent to a thousand tonnes of the explosive TNT – to 100 kilotons.

Russia can use tactical nuclear weapons to breach Ukraine’s defences by destroying key targets such as airfields or staging areas.

Furthermore, it may be difficult for the US or NATO to detect Russian preparations for a nuclear attack because many of the weapon systems used by Russian forces in Ukraine, such as the land-based Iskander missile, ship or submarine-launched Kalibr cruise missiles, or even conventional artillery systems such as the “Malka” self-propelled gun, are “dual-capable,” meaning they can deliver conventional and nuclear weapons.

There are various estimates of Russia’s tactical nuclear warhead arsenal. According to the most recent estimate from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), Moscow has approximately 1,912 tactical nuclear warheads assigned for delivery by air, naval, or ground.

According to the authors, the Russian Navy has approximately 935 warheads, the Air Force has approximately 500, and the Army has approximately 70 warheads for short-range missiles and artillery, as well as possibly some additional warheads for the dual-capable 9M729 intermediate-range missile.

In addition, approximately 380 warheads may have been assigned to Russia’s air and missile defence forces.

How Serious Is The Threat?

However, the question of whether President Putin would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine remains unanswered.

According to US intelligence, Russia has a theory known as “escalate to de-escalate,” which entails doing something dramatic, such as using a tactical weapon on the battlefield or as a demonstration somewhere, or simply threatening to do so, in order to scare the other side into backing down.

Russia published a document outlining its State Policy on the Use of Nuclear Weapons in June 2020. It states that “in the event of a military conflict, this Policy provides for the prevention of escalation of military actions and their termination on terms acceptable to the Russian Federation and/or its allies.”

According to Pavel Luzin, an expert at the Russia-focused think tank Riddle, a tactical weapon will first be used as an act of intimidation over the sea or in an uninhabited area.

“After that, if the adversary still wants to fight, it may be used directly against the adversary,” Luzin explained.

Some experts believe that this is just alarmism, as using nuclear weapons would cost Russia even the few political allies it has around the world, such as India and China. According to Ven Bruusgaard of the University of Oslo, Putin’s concern about his own place in history may deter him.