COP29: Will Azerbaijan, an “Oil Capital,” host the next climate summit?

• Azerbaijan cleared a major obstacle to hosting COP29.
• Decision the on next COP host is expected before COP28 ends in Dubai.
• The EU is still undecided about supporting Azerbaijan.

Notwithstanding the controversy surrounding COP28 being held in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates, the Petro-state Azerbaijan has cleared a major obstacle to hosting the UN climate meeting next year.

As a goodwill gesture to try to mend fences with its neighbor after Azerbaijan retook an Armenian-backed enclave in a brief war in September, Armenia announced on Thursday that it was dropping its rival candidacy for COP29.

Before COP28 concludes on Tuesday in Dubai, a decision on the host for the following year is anticipated. The discussions, which will center on whether to gradually reduce the use of fossil fuels, will be led by the CEO of the national oil and gas company of the United Arab Emirates.

Every year, a different area hosts the UN climate body’s Conference of the Parties (COP), with Asia selecting Dubai.

Russia and Eastern Europe take turns next year. Moscow, claiming that no member of the European Union should be in control, has blocked Bulgaria’s application in response to pressure from the West over its invasion of Ukraine.

Other contenders include Moldova, a former Soviet nation that, like Azerbaijan, has been actively seeking assistance from the West since the conflict in Ukraine, and Serbia, which has good connections with the EU but historical links with Russia.

The European Union is still undecided. The 27-nation group was “focused for now on the success of the negotiations in this COP” rather than on the future site, according to a source in the EU’s Spanish presidency.

President Ilham Aliyev has dominated Azerbaijan with an iron grip since 2003. The country’s oil and gas industry, which generates 90% of its export earnings, has given it increasing international influence.

“The road from COP28 will, it seems, lead to Baku, possibly the world’s first ‘oil capital’ a thousand years ago, where Marco Polo documented oil being traded, and where tourists can still top up their health by getting into a bath of crude,” Richard Black of Ember, an energy think tank, wrote about X, formally known as Twitter.

On the other hand, Oil Change International’s Romain Ioualalen urged the UN climate body to make sure that any future host permits “full civil society and media participation, freedom of speech and assembly, and a strict conflict of interest policy to keep fossil fuel interests away from climate negotiations.”.

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