Has the ‘post-American era’ arrived?

Has the ‘post-American era’ arrived?

Has the ‘post-American era’ arrived?
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For decades, the United States of America dominated the world; politically, diplomatically, economically, culturally and scientifically. America’s influence was unmatched in every way possible. It was called the most powerful nation since Imperial Rome. One that was stronger than any likely combination of other nations. The world’s tallest buildings were in the US, the world’s biggest factories were American, so was the movie industry, the best healthcare system and the best law and order. Come to technology which has always been one of the most important strategic pillars in maintaining US hegemony – Google, Facebook, Yahoo, Youtube, EBay, Twitter, Paypal, Pinterest and Amazon were the unmated American glories.

Cut to 2021, America’s share in the global pie is much smaller to what it used to be. The playing field has leveled; the tallest buildings are in Dubai, the biggest factories are Chinese, the biggest movie industry is Indian, America’s healthcare system is in a sorry state, US is grappling with political unrest and racial divide. In technology, China has answers to each and every American glory; Baidu, Renren, Tencent QQ, YouKu, Taobao, Sina Weibo, Alipay, Mogujie and Alibaba has successfully replaced the US tech-giants in the Chinese market. In fact, China has surpassed the US in 5G technology which was unimaginable previously. The US now looks similar to the countries it once tried to liberate. It is no longer in a position to impose its views, interests and values on the world.

So, has the ‘Post-American Era’ truly arrived?

Ever since the end of the Cold War, America had presided over a unipolar world. It was the global policeman. It needed to show the world who was boss, and that America could not be messed with. Proportionality was no consideration. The neo-conservative administration believed that the new century was destined to be an American Century. With the implosion of the USSR, there was not a rival in sight. This was also the Age of American Hubris: anything was possible.

There were no limits to what America could do. Rarely has a government made such a catastrophic miscalculation. The Bush administration made two fateful decisions: to invade Afghanistan in order that it could no longer be a breeding ground for terrorism; and to invade Iraq, overthrow Saddam Hussein, and turn the country into a Western-style democracy. The former at least bore some relationship to 9/11, as Al Qaeda was based there. Iraq had zero connection with 9/11. The US exploited the opportunity offered by 9/11 to remake the Middle East.

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The two wars proved hugely expensive in terms of loss of life and financial cost. The Iraq war is estimated to have cost between $2 trillion and $3 trillion and the number killed to have been in excess of 400,000. The cost of the Afghan war is estimated at $2.3 trillion. There are no reliable figures for deaths in the Afghan war, but they were undoubtedly in excess of 100,000, probably far greater. The Brown University Costs of War project estimates that America’s War on Terror has cost over $8 trillion and resulted in 900,000 deaths. For what?

Both wars ended in disastrous and abject failure. After 20 years, the longest war in American history, the Afghan war saw America humiliated in a spectacle reminiscent of its retreat from Vietnam in 1975. Apart from killing Saddam Hussein, the US achieved none of its objectives in Iraq.

America’s ignominy resulted from a total misreading of the world at the turn of the century. It believed the world was unipolar when in fact it was becoming increasingly multi-polar. It thought it had the world to itself when already it was evident that China was in the process of emerging as a major global player. The consequence was one of the most remarkable demonstrations of over-reach since World War II or even the last two centuries.

As much as any other single development, China’s rise over the past two decades has remade the landscape of global politics. Beginning with its entry into the World Trade Organisation in December 2001, China rapidly transformed its economy from a low-cost “factory to the world” to a global leader in advanced technologies. Along the way, it has transformed global supply chains, but also international diplomacy, leveraging its success to become the primary trading and development partner for emerging economies across Asia, Africa and Latin America.

According to a senior political analyst in Al Jazeera, Marwan Bishara, China, unlike the USSR, is deeply integrated into the western-led international system and does not seek world domination through an alternative global ideology. But the similarities are becoming uncanny as Washington thinks rising China begins to pose a strategic challenge to the American guided global system similar to that of the Soviet Union; as Biden frames the conflict between the US and China in ideological terms (a clash between democracy and autocracy); and as both sides show a willingness to resort to all means necessary to achieve their goals short of a large military confrontation, or a destructive “hot war”.

China has certainly pulled ahead of Russia, which is trying to revive its old glory and influence by any means necessary. President Vladimir Putin may play dirty games with the West, but Xi is adamant about rewriting the rules of the game altogether.

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Chinese president rejects the ‘international rules-based order’ the West dictates and insists on co-authoring the principles of a new world order.

In other words, the US may downplay Moscow’s provocations as the desperate manoeuvres of a ‘regional power’, but when it comes to Beijing, it has no choice but to pay attention to this uprising superpower.

China has succeeded where it counts, where the Soviet Union had failed – the economy. China’s economy has expanded at an incredible rate and, all things being equal, is destined to surpass that of the US in this decade. China is also developing a strategic doctrine and posture worthy of its economic supremacy, which includes conventional, naval, digital, space and nuclear military power.

There are many ways to quantify the Chinese miracle, no less in comparison with the US. But it suffices for our purpose here to take an overall look at the century since the US emerged as a world power and the Chinese Communist Party was first established, in 1921. In its first half, China suffered from turmoil, disintegration, foreign occupation and horrific famine that killed tens of millions, while the US became a world superpower, comprising 40 to 50 per cent of the world economy.

China began to get its act together during the past 50 years, which coincided with the US’s recognition of the communist government and the late President Richard Nixon’s historic visit in 1972, the first by a US president. But it was not until 10 years later that China began to widely liberalise and industrialise its economy at a breathtaking pace.

Joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO), in 2001, has propelled China to global prominence as the “world’s factory”. In the following 20 years, the Chinese economy skyrocketed from the equivalent of 13 percent of the US economy to 73 percent this year; a five-fold increase. In the process, it pulled hundreds of millions of Chinese out of poverty.

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Furthermore, Xi’s 2013 multi-trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), spanning more than 60 countries, has ensured China’s strategic enlargement and geopolitical expansion like never before. Interestingly, renewable energy investments reached a new high of 57 per cent of BRI’s total for energy projects in 2020.

The US may have hoped that China’s membership would mean cheap imported goods and the moderation and democratisation of the Chinese government, but eventually, China’s ascension led to a $300bn annual trade deficit and the communist party tightened its grip on power, alas.

As the China miracle unfolded, US power has continued to unravel over the past 20 years, beginning with the debacles of its wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and the greater Middle East and through the 2008 financial crisis and the disastrous Trump presidency, as Washington lost lots of assets, credibility, and influence among friends and foes alike around the world. In the process, the US’s share of the world economy shrank by almost half to 22 per cent.

China’s rise and the US decline as a world power became more evident currently when China hosted 32 foreign heads of state, members of the royal family and heads of international organisations for the opening ceremony of the Olympic Winter Games Beijing 2022. The same Winter Olympic games that are being ‘boycotted’ by the US diplomatically. The invited heads included six from Europe, five from Central Asia, three from the Middle East, two from South America, and others from Asia, the Pacific and Africa. Had this been the case 2 decades ago, these countries would not have dared to do that at first, or even if they decided to go against the odds, would have faced sanctions from the US until now.

9/11, and the 20 years since are a textbook examples of the chronic failure of American governance. There was the failure to understand the world, a basic prerequisite for any superpower. Then, even when it became clear that the wars were failing, successive presidents – Bush, Obama, and Trump – failed to muster the courage to acknowledge that a huge mistake had been made and pull out. Twenty years is an extraordinarily long time for such a lesson to be learnt.

There is another factor at play here. For the best part of two centuries, Americans have believed that being No.1 in the world is part of the country’s DNA. An admission of failure would, as Biden has found, not have gone down well with its people. America is a prisoner of a past that is in rapid retreat. No longer exceptional it is becoming a normal country. But it will take a very long time before it learns to accept that fact.

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Since US president Joe Biden has gotten into office, he often uses term “America is back” but the reality is that America is far from being back. It is in a state of decline.

 

(The writer is a staff member of BOL News. Views expressed by him are his own and do not reflect the newspaper’s policy)

 

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