Russia – Ukraine Crisis: How likely is the Russian use of nuclear weapons?

The stakes in Ukraine are higher now than at any other point during the month-long conflict. According to the Daily Telegraph, US President Joe Biden agreed today that the US would be willing to use nuclear weapons in “extreme circumstances,” a significant shift from the country’s recent policy of reducing its nuclear potential.

Fears are growing that Vladimir Putin will use weapons of mass destruction to get his way in Ukraine, as the war is turning against him.

President Vladimir Putin issued what was interpreted as a threat to use nuclear weapons against NATO countries if they interfered in Ukraine during his televised speech that heralded Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Russia will respond immediately,” he said, “and the consequences will be like nothing you have ever seen in your entire history.”

Only a few days later, Russia placed its nuclear forces on “high alert.”

Could the USA fire first?

Prior to becoming President in 2017, Mr. Biden stated, “The sole purpose of our nuclear arsenal is to deter and, if necessary, retaliate for a nuclear attack against the United States and its allies.”

President Biden’s desire to reduce the size of the United States’ nuclear arsenal was part of his 2020 presidential campaign.

A comprehensive plan to reduce it was supposed to be announced this year, but it was put on hold due to the situation in Ukraine.

The United States currently permits the use of nuclear weapons to “defend the vital interests of the United States, its allies, and partners,” as well as in response to “significant non-nuclear strategic attacks.”

Because the United States does not have a “no first use” policy – the only country with such a policy is China – a theoretical first fire is not impossible, but it is extremely unlikely given the huge consequences of using nuclear weapons.

In light of the Ukraine conflict, the United States will release its “Nuclear Posture Review” next week, outlining the “extreme circumstances” that would justify nuclear action.

For decades, US policy on the circumstances in which nuclear weapons would be used has been intentionally vague in order to keep adversaries guessing, and the report is expected to retain some of that ambiguity.

How likely is the Russian use of nuclear weapons?

“Nuclear weapons deterrence was developed in the Cold War primarily on the basis of what was called’mutually assured destruction,'” said Dr Patricia Lewis, Director of Chatham House’s International Security Programme (MAD).

“The idea behind MAD is that the horror and destruction caused by nuclear weapons is sufficient to deter aggressive action and war.”

“However, the application of deterrence theory to post-cold war realities is hotly contested and far more complicated in the era of cyberattacks that can interfere with nuclear weapon command and control.”

She continued: “It assumed that if Russia were to use nuclear weapons it would do so in its attack on Ukraine, not to attack a NATO state which could trigger Article 5 of the Washington Treaty and set off a full NATO response.

“Any movement to ready and deploy Russian nuclear weapons would be seen and monitored by US and others’ satellites, which can see through cloud cover and at night.