Nigerian elections may be affected by insecurity

• The general election in late February could be canceled or postponed.
• If the insecurity is not monitored and dealt with decisively, it could ultimately result in cancellation.
• This could “precipitate [a] constitutional crisis”.

Nigeria‘s general election in late February could be canceled or postponed, the electoral commission has said.

“If the insecurity is not monitored and dealt with decisively, it could ultimately result in the cancellation and/or postponement of elections in sufficient constituencies to hinder declaration of elections results,” warned Abdullahi Abdu Zuru, chairman of the Board of Electoral Institute of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), on Monday.

President Muhammadu Buhari is leaving the office without addressing the 13-year-old insecurities that continues for 13 years due to armed groups like Boko Haram in the northeast, increased abduction, and killings by bandits and herders in northwestern and central states, as well as separatist tensions in the southeast.

This could “precipitate [a] constitutional crisis”, he said. It was further stated that it “must not happen and shall not happen” prior to the vote on February 25.

Zuru spoke at the validation of election security training resources in the nation’s capital, Abuja, on behalf of INEC Chairman Mahmood Yakubu.

However, he claimed that INEC’s chairman and Nigeria’s national security adviser, Mohammed Babagana Monguno, had “assured the nation that a conducive atmosphere will be given for [the] effective conduct of the 2023 general election.”

“The Commission is not leaving anything to chance in ensuring that intensive and extensive security is provided for election personnel, materials, and processes,” he said

Key Drivers of Insecurity during Nigerian elections

Elections are seriously undermined by insecurity in Nigeria and elsewhere in a number of important ways, beginning with a decline in voter turnout. According to recent surveys, Nigerian voters indicated their confidence in security as the main deciding factor in their decision to vote in the governorship elections in the states of Ekiti and Osun in 2022. Voter turnout in the 2019 elections was the lowest in twenty years, which dramatically diminished public opinions of trustworthiness and is a serious and rising concern for the 2023 elections.

Increasing numbers of unofficial security groups like Amotekun in the South West and Ebube Agu in the South East also provide difficulties (as noted by the International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute in a joint pre-election assessment conducted in July 2022). What, if any, the role will unofficial security forces play in ensuring electoral security during a national election where security forces are already overworked? Would such a plan expose the integrity of the electoral process to political players’ manipulation and prove unstable?

If there is uncertainty regarding the schedule and administration of a second-round election, tensions may increase. While INEC has provided some clarification on the criteria for a runoff, it has not specified the timing of a runoff election (and the Nigerian Constitution does not make this apparent).

There is a chance that the level of insecurity will make it difficult for foreign poll monitors to spread out across the nation. Election observers play a crucial role in maintaining electoral integrity by guaranteeing openness and impartial oversight of election activities, as well as by helping to prevent fraud and violence.

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