Food for Thought

We have seen proxy wars in the Middle East that have affected the countries such as Yemen in very negative ways. However, often, the countries are affected through wars without any involvement in them whatsoever. Such countries have been termed to have suffered from “collateral damage”.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to the levels of collateral damage that may have never been experienced by the countries before. Whether you are a NATO ally that supports inclusion of Ukraine in NATO, or a completely neutral country in Africa, the effects of this war have afflicted tremendous amounts of economic turmoil around the globe.

Besides a lack of natural gas, the main problem for the countries is the shortage of food products, especially wheat. Known as the ‘breadbasket’ of Europe, Ukraine had already been unable to export its wheat, barley and corn due to the blockade of the Black Sea by the Russian Naval forces.

It is estimated that there are currently 20 million tonnes of grain stuck in Ukraine, 300,000 of which were supposed to reach Egypt by February 2023, just one example of many countries suffering from the reliance on Ukraine for food.

Further, President Zelensky warns that the 20 million tonnes of grain could amount to 75 million tonnes if the blockade of the Black Sea persists. Before the war, Russia and Ukraine were responsible for one-third of the world’s wheat supply, accounting for 12 per cent of the world’s calories.

Russia is the biggest supplier of fertiliser in the world. Anna Nagurney, a member of the Board of the Kyiv School of Economics said that 400 million people rely on Ukrainian food supplies.

The countries such as Lebanon and Pakistan, which rely on Ukraine for over half of their food supplies, have seen rapid inflation in food prices. Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine started, Lebanon has seen its food prices increased by over 700 per cent, compared with the prices in January 2020. Even extremely prominent NATO nations; the US, Germany and the UK, have seen inflation in food prices of 3.4 per cent, 5.5 per cent and 2.7 per cent since January 2020, respectively, showing no signs of a decline, despite having decreased occasionally before the conflict.

Since the war began, the Black Sea, the biggest route of exports for Ukraine and a major export route for Russia has been blocked by the Russian forces, forcing Ukraine to transport food supplies to Europe through road and rail.

This route has not proved to be nearly as efficient for exports as the Black Sea, leading to a decline of 6 million tonnes of grain to 2 million tonnes in the status quo.

The biggest priority of the global community must be the security and clearance of the Black Sea from any hindrances, which in this scenario, are the Russian ships in the sea.

Seeing the global community in such distress, the United Nations has taken the initiative towards helping the countries left on the brink of famine and economic disaster by facilitating a deal between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul, on July 22, 2022, which calls for the Russian naval forces to not hinder the movement of Ukrainian ships to export grain in the Black Sea and also allow the passage of Russian ships for the export of fertilisers to other countries. However, just a day after this deal, Russia allegedly bombed the Odesa Port in the Black Sea, which directly violates the deal, and puts its efficacy under massive doubt.

This attack on Odesa Port begs another question: How can the export of food, oil and other extremely necessary commodities be made possible if there is no security at the ports?

The fact that the ports in Ukraine are being bombed limits the option of ports through which the exports can be carried out and also endangers the lives of the workers in the ports.

The Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) estimates that the wheat supplies from the Black Sea, primarily comprising Ukrainian and Russian shipments, account for at least a third of the total imports by almost 38 countries, mostly African, further exacerbating the already tense economic situation in these countries but also damaging Russia and Ukraine’s economy in the long run, as the countries are now finding alternative sources to meet their necessities and restore food security within their regions.

India has exported 500,000 tonnes of wheat to Egypt and Lebanon, which might see these countries resorting to trade with India in the long run, as well, given the amount of help they are receiving through this trade in such grave situations.

For exports to revert to as they were before the conflict, there needs to be a massive scale of trust between Russia and Ukraine, as implausible as it may seem at this point in time.

The Russians state that the Ukrainians have planted landmines in the ports on the Black Sea, while the Ukrainians accuse the Russian ships of weapons smuggling through their ships and the undeniable blockade that the ships have caused at the port.

To have exports on the same level as last year a ceasefire is extremely essential, although we have seen the Minsk Agreement and Minsk Agreement II fail, the dire situation at hand can play a major factor in negotiating a successful ceasefire deal — also keeping in mind the lack of exports damaging Russia and Ukraine’s economy — with proper accountability in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to ensure that the ceasefire is not violated.

The preservation of ports is of utmost importance at this point in time, for which accountability should be exercised regardless of whichever the country bombs the ports and also for the activities that endanger the lives and security of the port workers, which includes but is not limited to the setup of landmines in these ports.

The involvement of the naval ships from any side should also be limited to a great extent to ensure that there are no further blockades on the port.

Although the United Nations deal between Russia and Ukraine was a big step towards helping the international community, especially the countries on the verge of food insecurity, the attack on the Odesa Port just a day after the deal shows that unless proper accountability is achieved there can be no guaranteed solution to the issue. However, it is of utmost importance that no matter how many deals are signed, no matter how many mechanisms we set up, the exports of Russia and Ukraine and the proper and safe passage of ships from these ports can only take place once this conflict, which has affected hundreds of millions across the borders, concludes.

(The writer is a freelance contributor)