China's Defense Minister Missing: US Envoy Questions Absence

China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu has not been seen in public for 2 weeks.
US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel raises questions about Li’s absence.
Sources say Li is likely being removed from his position.

A prominent US diplomat has raised questions about the disappearance of China’s Defense Minister, Li Shangfu, sparking renewed speculation about a potential anti-corruption campaign.

General Li has not made any public appearances for approximately two weeks and has reportedly been absent from several important meetings.

Rahm Emanuel, the US Ambassador to Japan, offered his thoughts on Mr. Li’s absence in a tweet, suggesting that the Chinese government was experiencing a high turnover rate in its ranks.

Mr. Li’s disappearance comes in the wake of recent removals of several high-ranking military officials.

According to sources in both the US and China, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Mr. Li is likely being removed from his position.

This development follows the mysterious disappearance of Foreign Minister Qin Gang from public view earlier this year.

Qin’s sudden absence and subsequent replacement in July have yet to be fully explained.

Regarding General Li’s situation, the Chinese government has not provided much information. When questioned earlier in the week, a spokeswoman from the Chinese Foreign Ministry claimed to be unaware of the situation.

General Li’s most recent public appearance was three weeks ago on August 29th, when he participated in a security forum with African nations in Beijing.

It’s worth noting that it is not uncommon for defense ministers to be absent from the public eye for several weeks.

General Li, who began his career as an aerospace engineer at a satellite and rocket launch center, has enjoyed a rapid rise through the ranks of both the military and the Chinese political establishment.

Similar to Mr. Qin, General Li is believed to be a favored figure of President Xi Jinping. He is now the second cabinet minister and state councilor, after Mr. Qin, to have gone missing in recent months.

Speculation regarding a potential military corruption crackdown initially gained traction online in early August when two generals from China’s rocket forces, responsible for land-based missiles, were replaced. Additionally, the president of the army’s military court was removed shortly after his appointment.

In recent tweets, Mr. Emanuel drew attention to General Li’s conspicuous absence while mentioning the disappearance of Mr. Qin and other military officials.

He also noted that General Li failed to appear for a scheduled trip to Vietnam and a meeting in Beijing with Singapore’s navy chief, suggesting the possibility of General Li being under house arrest.

Mr. Emanuel, known for his colorful tweets, likened this situation to Agatha Christie’s mystery “And Then There Were None” and Shakespeare’s “Hamlet,” stating, “Something is amiss in the state of Denmark.”

A Reuters report, citing Vietnamese officials, indicated that Mr. Li had abruptly canceled a meeting with Vietnamese defense leaders last week, citing a “health condition” as the reason.

The BBC has sought confirmation from the Singaporean navy regarding Mr. Emanuel’s claim that General Li also missed a meeting with Singapore’s navy chief.

Mr. Qin’s disappearance, now stretching over three months, was attributed to “health conditions” and has sparked widespread speculation about a potential corruption purge. Chinese officials typically do not miss high-level meetings due to health reasons as they undergo regular and thorough medical examinations.

General Li has a history of controversy; in 2018, during his tenure leading the military’s equipment development arm, he faced sanctions from the US government over China’s procurement of Russian combat aircraft and weaponry.

These sanctions likely created tensions, as General Li declined to meet with his US counterpart, Lloyd Austin, at a Singapore defense summit earlier this year.

Observers contend that General Li’s disappearance underscores the opacity of Chinese political leadership while also raising questions about the stability of some of President Xi’s decisions.

“High-level disappearances and possible corruption investigations are not a good look for Xi because he approved the selection of the current leadership,” says Neil Thomas, an expert on Chinese elite politics with the Asia Society Policy Institute.

But he added that ultimately “Xi’s leadership and overall political stability do not appear under threat, as none of the cadres affected are part of his inner circle.”

Analyst Bill Bishop noted that the Chinese military has had a “long history of corruption” and Mr Xi – who under China’s political structure double-hats as the supreme leader of China’s military – had tried to tackle it just like his predecessors.

However, he pointed out in his most recent analysis that it is noteworthy that even after more than a decade of President Xi’s leadership, there continues to be significant corruption at high levels within the military.

In the case of Rocket Force officers and General Li Shangfu, President Xi cannot shift the blame to his predecessors.

He emphasized that General Li, Mr. Qin, and the leaders of the Rocket Force were all promoted by President Xi, which makes it more likely that further purges will be perceived as the solution.

Ian Chong, a non-resident scholar associated with Carnegie China, also highlighted that these disappearances are occurring during a period of heightened military activity in the vicinity of Taiwan and escalating tensions in the South China Sea.

Recent gatherings of Chinese warships, including the Shandong aircraft carrier, in the Taiwan Strait have raised concerns about the possibility of additional naval exercises.

Given that both the military and foreign ministry play crucial roles in China’s external interactions, some individuals might be concerned about issues related to communication, escalation, and crisis management during this period, according to Dr. Chong.

Mr. Emanuel’s tweets are somewhat unconventional for a high-ranking US diplomat, particularly one serving as an ambassador to a significant US ally like Japan, which maintains a complex relationship with China.

While they are “perplexing”, “I am pretty sure he has a green light from the White House” to be pointing out Gen Li’s absence in this way, said Brad Glosserman, a senior adviser with the Pacific Forum Research Institute.

“Mr. Emanuel may be trying to elicit some response from China regarding the disappearance”, Dr. Chong said.

China’s Defense Minister Missing: US Envoy Questions Absence

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