Options for the TTP

PESHAWAR: In the wake of the Afghan Taliban’s lightning takeover of Kabul on August 16, President Dr Arif Alvi gave a television interview in which he urged the PTI led federal government to announce amnesty for the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a loose conglomeration of various militant groups engaged in a bloody conflict with the state of Pakistan for over a decade and a half.

In the interview which sent shockwaves across the country, the president also suggested to the Afghan Taliban to announce similar amnesty for their defeated rivals in the war-torn country. “These issues cannot be resolved without dialogue,” he said.

On October 1, Prime Minister Imran Khan in an interview with the TRT World revealed that his government was already engaged in talks with the reconcilable factions of the TTP. “There are different groups which form TTP and we are in talks with some of the groups,” he had said.

Within hours after the premier’s statement, the TTP declared a three-week ceasefire with the Pakistani forces. The TTP and the Pakistan government later extended the ceasefire for one-month on Nov 9.

The insurgents had demanded release of the TTP operative languishing in jails or internment centers and the government released over 100 combatants as a “goodwill gesture’’. The proscribed organization announced ending this cessation of hostilities on December 9.

The group accused the government of not implementing the six initially agreed upon points and claimed that the initial agreement guaranteed the release of 102 TTP prisoners to “be released to the TTP through the Islamic Emirate on November 1” but the government did not free those men.

It also alleged that the Pakistani forces violated the ceasefire by conducting raids and arrests against TTP fighters in Lakki Marwat, Swat, Bajaur, Dir and Swabi. Interestingly, a day after the TTP’s announcement, the Afghan Taliban dissociated themselves from the proscribed group as they urged it to pursue peace.

Responding to a video footage in which the TTP chief Noor Wali Mehsud was claiming to be a part of the Afghan Taliban, Zabiullah Mujahid – the Afghan Taliban’s spokesperson – said the TTP as an organization is not a part of the Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan (IEA).

“We don’t share the same objectives,” Mujahid had told Arab News. “[The TTP should focus on peace to] prevent any chance for enemies to interfere in the region,” he added.

While the TTP has announced ending the ceasefire, its indirect talks with Pakistan continue, despite speculations by the foreign media, said sources privy to the development

Pakistan had also tried to engage the TTP during the rule of deposed Afghan president Ashraf Ghani and offered the families which had moved from the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) to Afghanistan during the Operation Zarb-e-Azb to return to their native areas.

Taking advantage of this offer, hundreds of families which were living in Afghanistan as refugees returned to their homes after proper registration.

Pakistan was concerned about the people who had moved to Afghanistan after the operation as some of the people were part of the militant groups attacking the security forces stationed in former Fata from across the border.  Pakistan had also raised the issue several times with the Afghan administration.

Before launching Operation Zarb-e-Azb in June 2014, the PML-N government had tried to deal with the TTP through negotiations.  Like the present administration, the government of prime minister Nawaz Sharif was also accused of being a Taliban sympathizer.

But the PML-N government had not only started talks with the group but had also managed to make some headway. However, the talk process had come to an abrupt end after the US killed the TTP’s then commander Baitullah Mehsud in a drone strike.

The TTP broke into several factions after Mehsud’s death. After terrorists brutal attack on schoolchildren at Peshawar’s Army Public School (APS) on December 16, 2014, the Pakistan Army further intensified the Operation Zarb-e-Azb, forcing most of the TTP operatives to flee to Afghanistan.

However, this time the government is not holding direct talks with the militants. Rather the process is mediated through elders that are part of the new Taliban government, including Sirajuddin Haqqani.

After coming into power, the Afghan Taliban had made it clear that they would not allow any group to use the Afghan soil to carry out attacks against Pakistan, or any other country.

The Afghan Taliban had also started gathering information from Pakistani officials so that they could arrange talks between the TTP and Pakistan.  Interestingly, Pakistan and the TTP have held talks at multiple occasions and they even reached a deal in Swat.

The president of Pakistan has the authority to offer amnesty to a culprit and to absolve a convict of his crimes and it was probably the announcements of the president and the prime minister as well as the pressure of the Afghan Taliban that the TTP announced a ceasefire.

Experts believe that the December 9 announcement by the TTP is an attempt to keep pressure on Islamabad, adding that the concerns raised by the militants can easily be addressed.  They said there are also differences among various factions of the militant organization.

Some experts are also of the view that it is difficult for the TTP to continue its terrorist activities against Pakistan from Afghanistan as this would put pressure on the Afghan interim government for not upholding an important point of the Doha Agreement.

Under the agreement, the Afghan Taliban are to make sure that Afghanistan’s soil isn’t used against any country. Similarly, a growing number of the TTP fighters are seemingly fed-up with an endless fight.

According to some sources, the government had given a detailed briefing to the parliament’s security committee at the beginning of its talks with the insurgents.

The government has already rejected the TTP’s precondition to undo the merger of the former tribal areas with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) province, making it clear that the merger took place through a constitutional amendment and can only be rolled back through the same process.

The government of Pakistan has shown its sincerity by setting some TTP prisoners free. Now it depends on the TTP to make the dialogue process a success. The TTP leadership should keep in mind that the government has the ability to respond to militancy in case it chooses the path of war.

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