Parvez Elahi’s Safe Play

Observers say the Punjab chief minister is aiming to be replaced by his son in next elections

The socio-political landscape in the Punjab province is getting more and more complicated with each passing day. In tandem with the recent natural calamities and economic crises, political battles are on the rise. As Imran Khan’s rhetorical outbursts attract more and more people to his public campaign, the number of police reports (FIRs) against his narrative keep rising, as do rounds of counter fire from some state institutions as well as the incumbent federal government in Islamabad.

But in contrast to all that, Mr Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government, led by Chief Minister Chaudhry Pervez Elahi, is nowhere on the scene. It hasn’t been much visible during the recent floods, and hasn’t fired a single shot in the ongoing political crossfire. This is quite unlike Mr Elahi who, during his previous tenures has always been among the masses and institutionalised some extremely useful initiatives such as Rescue-1122 and the Parha-Likha Punjab project.

So, is he trying to keep a low profile?

“We were expecting him to be more proactive during the recent floods which caused widespread disasters, especially in southern Punjab, but that didn’t happen, which is very unlike him,” an insider said. He said Elahi did arrange some help for the flood affected, but it wasn’t with the same zeal.

Acclaimed political analyst, Dr Hasan Askari Rizvi, endorses this view. He says Elahi looks a bit “off-colour and inactive” as chief minister this time because of his intra-family divisions that have publicly erupted.

“It seems that Elahi’s concentration is on getting the family issues sorted first, because the next general elections are approaching and he knows that this family divide could deal their party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), a serious blow.”

He says that there is no smooth sailing between Elahi and the PTI in Punjab as the two have different mindsets and strategies, “but for the moment they don’t have any option other than to stick it out together for now.”

Some PML-Q insiders told Bol News that Elahi is in fact making an all-out effort to reunite his PML-Q party before next elections. He is using back-door contacts to convince his cousin and family head, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, that PML-Q’s future would be more secure with Imran Khan’s PTI than with the 11-party Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) which rules at the centre.

One of them said: “He is also aware of the tactics being employed by his opponents to oust him from Punjab’s chief ministership, and so all his moves are very calculated this time. He doesn’t want to offend any of the stakeholders.”

This has made the current Punjab government look more or less the same as Usmab Buzdar’s government, says political scientist Dr Marium Kamal. This is despite the wider perception that Elahi is politically more learned and experienced than Buzdar.

So maybe he’s just being careful and securing his exit path as and when needed, she says. After all, he only has ten party members in a provincial assembly which he heads as the chief minister. So he is trying to maintain workable ties with all the major stakeholders, and that’s why he is neither as loud as Imran Khan, nor openly opposed to his narrative. For instance, he neither supported nor distanced himself from Imran Khan’s controversial statement about the appointment of the next army chief.

“Theoretically, small political groups are always in search of opportunities to gain more power, because they lack a strong vote bank of their own, such as that of the PML-N in Punjab or the PPP in Sindh,” she said.

She recalled that at the start Imran Khan had fully supported Buzdar during his government, and had denied Elahi’s cravings for the provincial top office which led to an uneven relationship between the PTI and PML-Q.

“Elahi’s balanced approach is apparently aimed at maintaining the power relationship with Imran Khan as well as the establishment, but with an obvious tilt towards the actual power holders,” Dr Kamal says.

Such safe-play by Elahi is a profitable bargain for him, say political analysts. He is in power as Punjab’s Chief Minister, which gives him an opportunity to strengthen the PML-Q base in Punjab, promote his son, Moonis Elahi, as a candidate in the upcoming elections, and also maintain a workable relationship with all the stakeholders.

‘Elahi want to see Moonis Elahi as CM’

Some reliable sources are of the view that Pervez Elahi is making an all-out effort to see his son elected as the next chief minister of Punjab. “Elahi neither wants to offend Imran Khan nor the powers that be, because both are important stakeholders who would help him fulfil his dream,” says one source.

He knows that it is only Imran Khan’s popularity which can bring his family back to power in Punjab. This is endorsed by the results of the recent by-elections in Punjab.

On his part, Imran Khan has “loads of respect for PML-Q which was his only ally that didn’t ditched him at the time of the no-confidence motion, and he blindly trusts Moonis Elahi who is his close aide,” a source said.

This is Elahi’s trump card in the game that will unfold over the coming months, he said.