Floods and Turmoil

Analysts fear that political, civil unrest may erupt following flood devastation

Pakistan has already suffered greatly as a result of unprecedented floods, which are still wreaking havoc, and now in their aftermath, there are also concerns about political instability in the country.

Analysts affiliated with renowned think tanks based in Islamabad who are closely monitoring the situation fear that political or civil unrest may erupt in the country in the coming days as a result of the flood devastation.In the wake of the recent floods, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also predicted political instability in Pakistan.

In a recent report, the IMF maintained that rising food and fuel prices could prompt social protest and instability.

Dr. Khalid Rahman, Chairman of the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), believes that floods may also cause political unrest due to governance and other related issues.

In response to the correspondent’s question, he stated, “Of course, the situation arising from the recent floods may lead to political instability.”

According to him, this phenomenon is already occurring in some areas of the country, and things will worsen if appropriate measures are not implemented immediately.

Protests have been held in several parts of Sindh by rain-affected people against delays in the delivery of relief goods and the drainage of rainwater from their areas following the torrential rains.

Hundreds of affected people blocked the Hyderabad-Mirpurkhas road outside the deputy commissioner’s residence in the last week of August to draw the attention of government officials to their plight.

People who were affected by the recent flash floods in the Dubair and Ranolia areas of Lower Kohistan recently protested and demanded compensation for those who have perished in the floods.

On September 11, approximately 200 flood-affected families protested in Sukkur city after a six-year-old girl reportedly died of starvation and illness at a makeshift shelter near a filling station on the National Highway in the Patni area.

Similar reports have come in from other parts of the country, where affected residents have staged demonstrations against the government for failing to meet their demands. There have been several videos posted on social media in which people complain that relief supplies have been taken into possession by influential people in the area.

Natural calamities, according to Dr. Khalid Rahman, are essentially a test for humans. He stated that Pakistan suffered significant losses as a result of the earthquake in 2005, then suffered devastation on account of floods in 2010, and now faces another disaster in 2022. He added that Pakistan is dealing with serious governance issues, which are deteriorating for a variety of reasons. He said that there are ways and means to deal with the natural disasters and chaos that occur when they are ignored.

According to Dr. Rahman, there is a data-driven system in place that not only provides early warning but also educates people on how to deal with a disaster once it has occurred.

He stated that there is a high level of deficiency in this regard in Pakistan, which is evident from the performance of the authorities concerned when their track record is viewed by evaluating past events.

He further informed that there used to be institutes such as scouting and civil defence that provided training to handle any untoward situation, and that they should be restored.

“The recent floods revealed flaws in our system. We don’t have any helicopters, rescue boats, or drainage systems. We have no idea how to deal with issues pertaining to hygiene. These are all weaknesses that must be addressed,” he remarked.

He also said that while there are federal and provincial governments in Pakistan, local governments do not exist or, if they do exist, are not fully empowered.

He maintained that if there are no local government systems at the grassroots level, governance issues are bound to arise.

Furthermore, he said that the floods had exposed societal corruption, claiming that hotels were built on the banks of rivers in violation of rules and regulations.

“There are also concerns about our political culture, which is being harmed by increasing polarisation. There is a need to fight the issues on a war footing, and the national leadership must play its role by leading from the front,” he asserted. The IPS chairman added that in the coming days, there would be issues of rehabilitation for flood-affected people, which would necessitate both short-term and long-term measures to deal with the situation in the backdrop of floods.

Dr Sajid Amin Javed, Deputy Executive Director of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), believes that Pakistan is experiencing unprecedented floods. According to some estimates, he said, the country has already suffered heavy losses of $15 to $20 billion as a result of this calamity.

“The severity of the floods can be gauged by the fact that Pakistan has already suffered two and a half times the losses compared with the loans it is expecting to get from the IMF in three to four years. Pakistan expects to receive IMF loans worth $7.5 to $8 billion over the next three to four years. On the other hand, it has already suffered losses ranging from $15 billion to $20 billion as a result of flooding,” he stated.

He said that flood losses would exacerbate the trade deficit because the rice crop had already been impacted and the wheat crop would be affected as well.

Dr. Javed predicted that the floods would have a significant impact on overall inflation and that there was a risk of political or civil unrest in the country. However, he believes that the likelihood of this effect is low for some reason.

He believes that mass protests against higher inflation are possible, but anarchy-like conditions in the country are unlikely in the face of floods.

He also added that the primary reason for the fear of political or civil unrest is higher inflation, which was recorded at 27.26% in August and is expected to rise by two to three per cent in the coming days.

In terms of food inflation, it is already above 30 per cent and could reach 35-40 per cent if timely decisions on food imports are not made. Flood inflation, he said, would be also be further exacerbated if food imports were not made on time.

“By considering these factors, in addition to the sufferings of ordinary citizens due to higher inflation, there is concern in the market that there may be political unrest in the country in the coming days,” he said, responding to a question.

Floods, he claims, have affected 35 to 40 million people, or 15 to 20 per cent of the total population.

The SDPI Deputy Executive Director said that flood victims have lost their livelihoods, which include livestock, agriculture, and small-scale businesses, and that the government is unable to design social assistance programmes due to balance-of-payment issues.

He predicted that joblessness would rise further in this scenario, as would inflation, which is already severely hurting the average person.

“Due to rising inflation, demonstrations are already taking place in the country. On the other hand, one cannot predict the political situation because a minor thing can lead to a major event. However, I believe Pakistan is not on the verge of anarchy as a result of the floods, as was the case in Sri Lanka,” he stated.

He maintained that the situation in Sri Lanka was vastly different from that in Pakistan, adding that the lives of ordinary citizens had been harmed as a result of the Sri Lankan government’s policies, and that floods in Pakistan are understood to be beyond the government’s control.

Moreover, he said that there are still concerns about how the government is handling relief and rescue operations, and that the government has done neither the best nor the worst in this regard thus far. So far, the government’s performance in relation to this has been average at best.

Secondly, he said, there is also concern about how the government is reaching flood-affected people, stating that the Balochistan government struggled in this regard, as did the Sindh provincial government. He claimed that Balochistan has no infrastructure and that the devastation in Sindh is far too great.

He also remarked that in the coming days, there would be issues pertaining to the rehabilitation of flood-affected people, as the government would face challenges in arranging funding for it.

Dr. Javed also stated that the UN Secretary-General’s visit had a silver lining for the country, but that other options, such as debt swapping, are also available for Pakistan.