Twin Elections Dilemma

Bol News explores the implications if elections to Punjab and KP assemblies are held before elections in the rest of Pakistan

LAHORE: Three-month caretaker setups to hold fresh elections are in the offing in the provinces of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) after assemblies in both provinces were dissolved by the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party. But will this push the federal government, led by Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), to announce general elections across the country, something which appears to be the motive behind the PTI’s move?

According to informed circles, general elections across the country may not be possible at this time. This is because once the elected parliaments are dissolved and caretaker governments take over, they are bound to hold elections within 90 days. This cannot happen because another mandatory requirement under the law – to conduct a fresh population census and re-demarcate electoral constituencies in accordance with the census results before general elections – cannot be met during this time limit.

Another option is to hold early elections in the two concerned provinces before going for general elections, due in about a year when the remaining parliaments complete their constitutional term. Experts believe this will incur around Rs 20 billion additional expenses in the election process, thereby adding burden to national exchequer in times of an economic downspin. And the elections may still fall short of ensuring proper representation of the masses given the absence of fresh census data and constituency delimitations.

A former secretary of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), Kanwar Dilshad, told Bol News that the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), which jointly ruled Punjab province with PTI, created five new districts and 10 new tehsils, or administrative subdivisions, in the province, but no related electoral constituencies were earmarked. This was impossible anyways in the absence of fresh census data. As such, the ECP had the legal authority to extend the 90-day deadline for elections in the said two provinces, he said.

Former president of the Supreme Court Bar Association, Hamid Khan, meanwhile explained the legal provisions in this regard, saying that although the population census leading to the creation of new constituencies must be done before the elections, it is a general provision that does not bar the holding of elections at a stipulated time.

“The condition of holding elections within 90 days after the dissolution of the assemblies has been specified in the Constitution, so the Election Commission will be bound to hold elections within that period, on the basis of old constituencies and voter lists,” he said.

He added, however, that while it will be premature to make predictions, “it looks impossible to hold immediate elections to one or two assemblies within the stipulated period.”

Are election preps in sight?

According to Kanwar Dilshad, the ECP is an authorized body that can conduct elections as and when required, just as it went ahead with local bodies’ elections in southern Sindh province despite reservations by some groups over obsolescence of constituencies in terms of both their geographical limits and population shifts.

However, according to analysts, holding elections in one or two provinces just months before the general election will create a new precedent for holding separate elections at different times to various legislative bodies of the country.

Besides, some PTI allies themselves may not want early elections. As Kanwar Dilshad explained, “the Chief Minister Punjab, Chaudhry Pervez Elahi (of PML-Q party) dug ditches in the way of prompt elections by creating new districts and subdivisions in Punjab province. Now elections cannot be held there until fresh constituencies are demarcated.”

He said that training of government school teachers to conduct a digital census was ongoing, but field work to collect data had not yet started. It will take at least around three months to get in motion. As such, elections in Punjab are not possible in 90 days, he said.

Senior lawyer, Hamid Khan, however, has a different view. According to him, once an assembly has been dissolved, it is mandatory to hold fresh elections to that assembly within 90 days. The Constitution is clear on this, and this period cannot be extended.

“It is true that in the newly formed districts the ECP should create new constituencies after holding a population census, but under the law the elections cannot be delayed on this pretext. This constitutional provision is general in nature. It means that elections can be held on the basis of old census results and constituency limits,” he said.

He suggested that instead of creating a new controversy, the ECP should conduct elections in Punjab at the stipulated time, as it has done in Sindh despite the reservations of Muhajir Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P).

Why is census and fresh delimitations important?

The provisional results of the 6th National Census, conducted in 2017, were published on 3 January 2018, and accordingly the ECP demarcated constituencies for the national and provincial assemblies. A one-time exemption was provided under Article 51(5) to accommodate the KP’s newly merged districts.

One ECP official, requesting anonymity, said that under Article 51 (5) of the Constitution and Section 17 of the Elections Act, 2017, constituencies were drawn on the basis of population as per the last officially published census.

The erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) were merged into the KP province under the 25th Amendment to the Constitution. Consequently, the region’s 12 reserved seats in the National Assembly were abolished, while six seats were added to the KP assembly on the basis of population of the merged districts.

As a result, the number of seats in the National Assembly were reduced from 272 to 266, thus necessitating the creation of new constituencies in KP, but it was not done because the census results had not yet been published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

According to the ECP official, it is not possible to hold the next general elections based on new constituencies in view of the fact that while the schedule for the 7th population and house census has been revised, the digital census has not yet started, which means that the ECP will not be able to carve out new constituencies for general elections within a short deadline.

He said that once the digital census process takes off, it will take four months to complete. The ECP will then require another four to six months to carry out constituency delimitations.

As such, the ECP will have no option but to hold elections to the provincial assemblies of Punjab and KP as well as the general elections that follow later on the basis of the existing constituencies, he said.

As per the original schedule, the census process was to start on August 1, 2022. The preliminary results were to be shared with the ECP by 31 December and final results by February 2023. The ECP had been demanding the government to publish the final results by the end of 2022. This was because, under the Election Act, it was required to prepare its action plan at least four months prior to the date of general elections, the official said.

This could not happen because of the political chaos that spread across the country in early 2022.

Can Punjab, KP elections ensure stability?

Political analysts and experts are not optimistic. The country cannot afford to hold two separate general elections at this time, they say.

“It is unfortunate that if we conduct the general elections in two installments, we will be spending an extra 20 billion rupees,” says Ahmad Bilal Mehboob, president of Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT).

He said, “elections are a part of democracy. You have to maintain an infrastructure of government including the parliament, the provincial assemblies and the union councils, etc. And this costs money. I think it is irresponsible on part of our politicians to be creating this chaos just for their ego satisfaction and personal interests.”

Economist, Dr Zahid Kamal, suggested that general elections should be held at the same time in all provinces. “The municipal elections are taking place right now. After that, there will be elections for two provincial assemblies, and then later for the remaining assemblies. So, we are spreading our electoral process into a three-stage exercise, which is not a good omen for an already sinking economy.”

If there is no way out of this situation, then the federal government should also dissolve the rest of the assemblies and hold general elections once and for all, he said.

But there is a problem. “If the elections are held on schedule in Oct-Nov 2023, the government will be able to allocate funds for it in the annual budget. But if they are held now, funds for elections are not available and the government will have to draw them from the development budget, thereby hampering development work,” he said.

Apart from the economy, twin elections may also trigger political issues.

Senior journalist, Faizan Bangash, believes that separate elections in Punjab and KP may cause two major political challenges. “The first challenge is the transparency of the elections, because one major political party has been expressing lack of confidence in the Election Commission, and may create chaos if the results are not what it expected,” he said.

He recalled that in 2017, despite some fundamental changes made in the rules to improve the electoral process, the role of the returning officers and the stoppage of the electronic Result Transmission System (RTS) during the 2018 elections still remain highly questionable.

The second major issue, according to Mr Bangash, “is the holding of peaceful elections amid an atmosphere of extreme political polarization. If elections in only two provinces are held, this polarization will worsen, raising chances of violence, especially in Punjab.”

Apart from violence, such elections may also trigger future political disputes. Analysts say that any party that wins in Punjab in the first election will be blamed for rigging the subsequent general elections, that come months later, by parties that fail to win their expected number of seats in the province.

Besides, the party that wins in Punjab in the early elections will also influence voter’s preferences when the general elections come. All political contestants are aware of this and will go to any extreme to snatch the Punjab elections. If they fail, they may resort to public protests to make the results controversial, thereby prolonging the political tug of war.

Downside of twin elections

In this regard, Ahmad Bilal Mehboob said: “When the provincial assembly general elections are held, there will be no caretaker government at the national level, which means there is a political government in the federation that can influence the elections politically. Similarly, when general elections will be held at the national level after ten months, the provincial governments of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will not be caretaker governments at that time, so they will also try to influence the general elections. This will be a situation that can affect the transparency of elections.”

Additionally, he said, this will also set the pattern of two separate elections after every five years. This is because if elections to the Punjab and KP assemblies are held now, the governments elected in the process will hold power for five years. Similar will be the case of one federal and two provincial governments of Sindh and Balochistan, to which elections will be held after about ten months.

Have such twin elections ever been held before in Pakistan? No, says Mr Mehboob. “What has happened, however, is that the National Assembly elections would be held one day, and three days later elections to four provincial assemblies would be held. But this caused administrative as well as financial issues, leading the authorities to set the pattern for same-day general elections.”

But, he says, since such restrictions haven’t been weaved into the Constitution, it is theoretically possible that elections to different assemblies are held on different days. “It happened in India; at first they used to have same-day elections, but then they got separated and remain that way today. The same will happen to us if elections to Punjab and KP assemblies are held separately from general elections to the remaining three parliaments.”