Beyond 2050 – The Future of Air Power

Aviation programmes are all set to enter new frontiers at the turn of the century

For a good part of the 1900s outrageous advancements were prophesised by stargazers regarding 21st century technology. This thought traversed to the cinematographers of Gene Rodenberry’s ‘Star Trek’ to George Lucas’s ‘Star Wars.’ The film franchises created universes with laser-tech to hypersonic aerospace weapons, with as much relative fictional accuracy as possible. Now, come year 2050, these might actually become reality!

We have seen flight come of age to become one of the most sought-after expression of power by both developed and developing nations during the previous 150 years, with seemingly no end in sight. Air power directly coincided with military power practically the moment aviation itself existed, fast-tracked with the onset of World War I. With rapid development of the armed utilisation of aircrafts and blimps, by 1918 equipment, along with related procedures, had been established to employ it in every possible role, except for air-to-air refuelling which came much later. During the next century, air power took great strides in budding disciplines like propulsion, aerodynamics, metallurgy and electronics. Mimicking land and sea warfare in evolution, air power has experienced accelerated change that muddle efforts to oversimplify its implications on contemporary geo-political, geo-economic and international security paradigms.

Weapons of the Future

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are gradually taking central role in all air campaigns. That’s why the future of air power looks to be heavily relying on ‘unmanned,’ however, the only question is ‘when.’ The year 2050 holds many possibilities for air power, here are some of them;

Autonomous Aerial Weapons

These are artificial intelligence (AI) based airborne robotic vehicles used to search and destroy enemy troops, as well as, equipment on ground or in the air, without risk to friendlies – theoretically at least. Onboard computers identify hostile forces and target them with built-in weapons. Difficulty remains in quick and reliable discrimination between hostile forces or friendly parties. Systems that check-in with human controllers are vulnerable to communication failures. Malfunctioning robots could fire wildly at anything and that would be a big challenge.

Prime examples of such air borne weapons include:

–  MQ-25 Stingray

–  Elbit Hermes 450

–  Guizhou WZ-2000,

–  Perdix drones

–  Dynetics X-61 Gremlins

–  US Navy and Marine Corps’ LOCUST

–  RAF LANCA Mosquito unmanned loyal wingman programme

–  CH-901 UAV

–  AVIC 601-S Anjian

Directed-Energy Weapons

Any ranged weapon that damages targets with highly focused energy, including laser, microwaves, and particle beams falls under the umbrella of directed-energy weapons. Potential applications of this technology includes, weapons that target personnel, missiles, vehicles, and optical devices. In various countries link Russia, China, Turkey, Iran and United Kingdom, research has enabled them to generate directed-energy weapons and railguns to counter ballistic missiles, hypersonic cruise missiles, and hypersonic glide vehicles. The first known use of directed-energy weapons in combat took place in Libya in August, 2019 by Turkey, which claimed to have used the ‘ALKA Directed-Energy Weapon System.’

Space-Based Weapons

This is Star Wars 2.0, if not better! Space would be the ultimate battle ground, with weapons in orbit that would have the ability to see and zap anything on the ground, in the air, or nearby in space. The main mission of space-based weapons would be to defend against ballistic missiles fired at targets on Earth. Fleets of interceptors or battle stations positioned in orbit, poised to fire at any attacking missiles. The leading approach for the future would be the use of solid projectiles – such as tungsten rods – that would impact missiles, but laser battle stations are, theoretically, more efficient and sustainable. Presently, science is maturing with arrival of nanotechnology and Moore’s Law is in action. Interceptors hit warheads to destroy them, which is challenging but possible. Weapons in need of chemical fuel or electrical power would be replenished in space through a strong network of supply chain management.

Hypersonic Aircraft

Launched from a standard runway, a hypersonic aircraft flies faster than Mach 5 to strike anywhere in the world in a couple of hours. It also has enough thrust to deliver a satellite to low-Earth orbit.To get off the ground from a runway, a hypersonic plane hitches a ride on a conventional plane or has its own conventional jet engine. That engine carries the hypersonic craft to an altitude where air density and resistance are less. Here it reaches supersonic speeds and then shift to its scramjet engine. The scramjet scoops up air and mixes it with fuel so it burns as the mixture flows through the engine at supersonic speeds. This means scramjets can achieve some of the speed of a rocket without having to carry heavy oxidizer to mix with fuel, as rockets did in previous generation of thrusters. The technology matured over the previous half a century, with engineering upgrades in metallurgy and design. Scramjet engines start only when the plane flies faster than the Mach 1. Remotely piloted, UAVs or Unmmaned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs) are the aircrafts of choice for this tech because pilots are now redundant in the cockpit!

E-bombs

In the world of 2050 plus, everything has gone ‘E’. Something like the ‘graphite bomb,’ was used in ‘Gulf War-1’ where Saddam’s power grid was dismantled. High-power microwave pulses knock out computers, electronics, and electrical power, crippling military and civilian systems. A rapid increase in electromagnetic field strength during a pulse, induces surges of electric current in conductors. This burns out electrical equipment – semiconductor chips are particularly vulnerable. Special bombs generate the most intense pulses covering large areas, but unmanned aircrafts carrying smaller generators pinpoint targets. The effects also depend on local conditions, and are hard to predict. Sensitive enemy military equipment sometimes shielded, and microwaves also disable friendly electronics within range.

Sixth-Gen Fighter Aircraft

Superiority in the air combat domain was the push behind the Sixth Generation fighter programmes. With the emergence and increasing use of digital, innovative technologies, countries looked for next-level fighter jet capabilities. Lets have brief look at what the air forces around the world are vying for in the future.

USA’s Next Generation Air Dominance:

The United States Air Force (USAF) was one of the leaders in the race for the development of a sixth-generation fighter aircraft. USAF Research Laboratory released a rendering of the next-generation aircraft F/X in March 2018, which indicated the aircraft had a sleek, stealthy design with a high- energy laser capable of cutting enemy aircrafts into half. Also known as Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) or Penetrating Counter Air, the future aircraft has a longer range and larger payloads, as well as the ability to carry hypersonic weapons. F/X fighters provide significant enhanced stealth capabilities and work in coordination with unmanned vehicles. The jet was developed and flown in one year. It remains unclear who designed and developed the prototype, but it is understood that advanced manufacturing technology was used to develop it.

Future Combat Air System

A joint programme between Germany, France and Spain, the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) delivered a next- generation fighter (NGF), which operates as part of a manned-unmanned teaming formation with attack and surveillance drones, known as ‘remote carriers.’ All the flying elements are connected by a ‘Combat Cloud’ powered by AI. Air forces operate the FCAS sixth-generation aircraft at a safe stand-off distance while deploying the remote carriers in dangerous areas to deal with threats. Key capabilities of the aircraft include improved survivability with active and passive stealth features, enhanced SA through advanced avionics and sensor suite. The fiighter jet also provides greater manoeuvrability, speed, and range, thanks to its powerful engine and advanced flight control system. The jet is installed with novel effectors to ensure increased firepower, including stand-off kinetic loads, directed energy weapons, and electronic warfare capabilities. Dassault Aviation and Airbus were awarded a joint concept study (JCS) contract by the French and German governments for the FCAS programme in February 2019.

Russia’s MiG-41

Russia’s sixth-generation aircraft MiG-41, also known as PAK-DP, is a future interceptor that operates at extremely high altitudes at speeds exceeding Mach 4. The MiG-41, a long-range interceptor would replace the ageing MiG-31 interceptor. Developed by Mikoyan (MiG), the fighter provides the capability to intercept hypersonic missiles. The aircraft is modified to create an unmanned variant. The new interceptor is equipped with long-range air-to-air missiles, advanced target search and detection equipment, and stealth technology.

UK’s Tempest

Launched by Britain in 2018, the Tempest fighter jet project is the result of trilateral cooperation between the United Kingdom, Italy, and Sweden. The combat aircraft is set to enter service with Royal Air Force (RAF) in 2035 as a replacement for the Typhoon. It has an adaptable architecture suitable for a range of operations, with provision to change software and hardware according to mission needs. Other key features include an advanced flight control system, enhanced survivability, and scalable autonomy. Equipped with advanced technologies such as futuristic wearable cockpits using gaming technology, eye-tracking technology, and augmented reality, the jet will serve the RAF for the next half a century. Other technologies incorporated include stealth, optional manning, directed-energy weapons and hypersonic weapons. The aircraft’s ability to exchange data with multiple platforms provides armed forces with comprehensive picture of future battlespace. It uses swarming technologies to control drones while Cooperative Engagement Capability will allow platforms to coordinate during attack or defence operations. A radar technology, known as a multi-function radiofrequency system, developed for Tempest is able to provide over 10,000 times more data than existing systems.

China’s J-X

China developed a new fighter jet with sixth-generation capabilities such as commanding drones, stealth capability, and AI. The J-X also features hypersonic weapons, laser, and swarm warfare capabilities and provides improved capabilities compared with the country’s J-20 and J-31 aircraft. A 6,620 feet wind-tunnel, built to support the new fighter aircraft programme became operational in May 2020 by performing a flow field test for secretive new aircraft.

The Final Frontier

Since the days of Star Trek and Star Wars, space has been romanticised as a place of peace. However, as technology continues to evolve, things appear to be heading the other way. With the advent of near-space travel and space-tourism, militaries around the world are eyeing for their share of the pie. Air power is turning into Aerospace power. Majority of the countries have already renamed or are in the process of renaming their ‘air force’ as ‘aerospace force.’  So where does Space start? This question needs deep deliberation. The recent ‘space’ flights by billionaires Jeff Bezos’ ‘Blue Origin and Richard Branson’s ‘Unity-22’ are up for discussion. Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI) agrees with Blue Origin to define beginning of space as Kármán line at an altitude of about 62 miles. It’s also where the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says, “a conventional plane would need to reach orbital velocity or risk falling back to Earth.” However, then you have agencies like NASA and the USAF that claim that the edge of space begins 12 miles south of the Kármán line. According to the space agency, an altitude of 50 miles is where the Earth’s atmosphere blends into space. One thing is for sure: no matter which ‘Kármán line’ is followed, space is truly up for grabs and the one who exploits it first will reap the benefits for a very long time to come.

Is it strength in numbers or enhanced quality or diversifified portfolio that will tilt the balance of air war in a proponent’s favour in 2050 and beyond? Considering the ‘theory-history-technology’ matrix, it appears that the deciding factor would be ‘a diversified portfolio.’ Aerospace wars of the future with their high-tech weapons will be won by the countries that have the ability to adapt to change and make the best possible decisions in evolving situations. Humans will remain a big part of the equation as AI will still not be strong enough to take ‘creative’ and ‘moral’ decisions essential to wars. The centre of gravity of military power would be the space. Everything from navigation to communication to intelligence satellites would operate in space. If any power has to knock out the other, it would have to knock out those assets up there first.

It seems like science fifiction, but one wonders how somebody in 1800s would have felt about a description of what World War II was going to be like. The details may not be as mentioned — there may be other players, it may not happen in 2050 — but historically every century had a major war. 21st century probably won’t be the first without a major global war.