Hanging in the Balance

Pakistan’s political future may well depend on the result of the by-polls for 20 Punjab Assembly seats and whether Army Chief Gen. Bajwa accepts another extension

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) faces the same dilemma which once haunted its nemesis – the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N): whether to confront the mighty military establishment head-on, or try to engage with and appease it.

As the situation stands today, the rupture in relations and lack of trust between the two sides has only widened, off-the-record interviews with a couple of key PTI officials revealed.

And there is a reason for it, explains a former federal minister of the PTI.

“The military leadership invested too much on the PML-N in a rather short span of time. It is not easy for them to cut their losses and simply walk away,” the former federal minister of the PTI told Bol News requesting anonymity. “Similarly, the PML-N has burned its boats, and put all its eggs in the establishment’s basket. And the PML-N has done this at the cost of the entire narrative it built since Mian Nawaz Sharif’s disgraceful ouster from the Prime Minister’s House in a corruption case.”

Clearly then, for both the establishment and the PML-N, it is very difficult to break the relationship in which they have invested so much, he added, maintaining “The people and the PTI stand on one side now, while the establishment and the PML-N are on the other side. The country’s decision-makers must take into account the will of the people.”

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is doing all he can to remain on the right side of the establishment. The way he formally handed the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) the authority to vet and review the appointments and promotions of public office-holders is one small indication of how far his party is willing to go to appease the powers-that-be.  Earlier this task was performed by the Intelligence Bureau and the Special Branch at the provincial level.

Against this backdrop, different factions within the PTI are trying to devise an effective strategy through which the party may try to claw its way back to the corridors of power.

A close aide of former premier Imran Khan admitted that two parallel narratives of confrontation and engagement exist within the PTI.

“Our party has managed to build tremendous public pressure, but we realise the importance of engagement with the military. However, there is a mini-group comprising some hardliners, who believe that the establishment will only give room to the PTI if it takes them head-on,” he said. “This duality is creating problems. There are also many Shehbazes in our party.”

Meanwhile, the PTI Chairman and former premier, Imran Khan, is performing a high-wire balancing act as he tries to bring some equilibrium between the two diametrically opposed points-of-view.

“Imran Khan holds the institution of the army in the highest regard and does not want to see it undermined under any pretext,” said the official. “Unlike Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam, he neither wants to cross the red-line, nor does he want any member of his party to do so. That is the reason he is refraining from personalising the issue.”

PTI insiders contend that their party has now managed to build enough public pressure on the government and the establishment to allow it to negotiate from a position of strength.

“The public response to Imran Khan’s call has been unprecedented in Pakistan’s history. He is the only leader who has become even more popular after his controversial ouster. And another unprecedented trend is that he is able to maintain the momentum of his public meetings which are attracting mammoth crowds,” the former federal minister contended.

The challenge for the PTI, however, is how to translate the public support into tangible political gain. So far, the party is struggling on this front. And Imran Khan’s demand for early, fair and free elections appears to have no takers for now, at least among the real decision-makers.

PTI officials say that to rebuild relations there needs to be an “uninterrupted and uninterruptible dialogue” to rebuild relations between the two sides. “The barracks must realize that 21st Century Pakistan is not prepared to accept dynastic and corrupt politicians as their lords and masters in the name of sham democracy,” said another source based in Karachi.

Two events could prove defining for the PTI in the coming days.

The first is the July 17 by-poll for 20 provincial assembly seats in the Punjab. “Our entire focus is on these by-elections now,” said the former federal minister. “If the PTI manages to win at least 14 out of 20 seats in these elections, the game will be over not just for Hamza Shehbaz as Chief Minister, but also for the Shehbaz Sharif-led government, which will collapse.”

Nonetheless, PTI leaders are apprehensive about manipulation and rigging in the by-polls. They are relying on garnering massive public support and the fact that the focus on just 20 seats may make it difficult to rig and steal these elections.

Therefore, unlike routine by-elections, a lot remains at stake with the ones scheduled for July 17.

The second event which could prove a game-changer for the PTI, according to insiders, is the likely change of command of the army chief. Although Shehbaz Sharif desperately wants to give the Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa an extension of tenure, whether he accepts this offer or not remains to be seen.

Earlier this year, DG ISPR Major-General Babar Iftikhar had ruled out another extension for the army chief, but there are many within civilian ranks, especially within the PML-N, who would love to see General Bajwa retaining his command post-November 2022.

As the wheeling and dealing continues on the country’s political chessboard, saner elements on both sides of the civil-military divide want an end to the continuing  polarisation and confrontation, which is not just making the state’s institutions controversial, but may also hurt the state itself.

And to defuse the tension and bring at least a semblance of normality back to Pakistani politics, the unity government – the main bone of contention, at least in the public eye — has to be removed to pave the way for a neutral set-up which can carry out reforms and take the country towards fresh elections. Unfortunately, at the current juncture, there seem to be few takers for this option in the corridors of power.