It’s the Final Countdown

The election victory in the Punjab is a huge stride forward for the PTI to regain power at the centre

Former premier Imran Khan may have struck a near-fatal political and electoral blow to the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in its power base of Punjab, but he has no immediate plans of launching a movement to dislodge the Shehbaz Sharif government at the centre, senior Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) officials disclosed in background interviews.

“There are no plans to launch an immediate movement for the ouster of the Shehbaz Sharif government, though its continuation is not in Pakistan’s interest,” Asad Umar, Secretary General PTI told Bol News. “All the political uncertainty and this government’s inability to handle the economic challenges are causing grievous harm to Pakistan…the situation is unravelling fast, but we want to first consolidate the gains made in Punjab and take matters in our grip over there,” he added.

However, Umar clarified that the holding of free and fair elections across the country as soon as possible remains the PTI’s top demand. “This is the only way forward to pull the country out of the current crisis,” he maintained.

Pakistan’s economy has been under tremendous pressure since the ouster of Imran Khan’s government in April through a highly controversial vote of no-confidence. The rupee has slumped to a record low of 240 plus against the dollar this week, registering an overall decline of almost 30 per cent since the Shehbaz Sharif government came to power in the second week of April.

Yawning trade and current account deficits have raised fears that the country might default on its foreign loan repayments, even though PML -N Finance Minister Miftah Ismail rules out any such possibility. His statements of reassurance in this regard, and those of the Governor, State Bank of Pakistan have, however, failed to calm nerves in the country’s financial and capital markets and in business and industrial circles.

Asad Umar contended that the overall repercussions of the sharp devaluation of the rupee would be realised later. According to him, there will be a further steep rise in energy prices, including those of gas and electricity tariffs, making the lives of common Pakistanis even more miserable, and the cost of doing business in Pakistan unmanageable.

Against this backdrop, the PTI think tank is devising a strategy through which the former ruling party can fully leverage the situation. And in this game, Punjab remains pivotal as the PTI plans to cut the PML-N to size in its one-time stronghold.

Raoof Hasan, a close aide of Imran Khan, said that the PTI’s focus and priority at present are on improving the lives of the common man, both in the Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa provinces, which are ruled by the party. That they recognise time is of the essence in this regard, said Hasan, can be gauged by the fact that “Within the first 24 hours after assuming power in the Punjab, the PTI revived the Ehsaas programme and the Health Card Scheme.”

PTI officials added that Sania Nishtar, who spearheaded the Ehsaas Programme at the centre when the PTI was in power, is being brought to the Punjab to lead the effort now, while Imran Khan himself will also help Chief Minister Pervaiz Elahi and his team navigate affairs there.

Apart from improving governance, Pervaiz Elahi’s focus will be to counter the PML-N in Punjab, working towards effectively scrapping its political influence and clout in the bureaucracy.

PTI sources say that Elahi, who also served as the chief minister Punjab during former military ruler Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s era, is an old and effective hand in the game of power politics in Punjab. Compared to the former chief minister Usman Buzdar – Imran Khan’s one-time favourite — Elahi will prove more effective in handling the PML-N.

That, according to political analysts, is why Imran Khan has opted to wait before taking on the federal government. He wants to give Elahi time to consolidate power in the Punjab, before giving the Shehbaz government a final push in the centre.

PML-N sources concede that after the fall of their government in Punjab, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif appears to be living on borrowed time at the centre. “With each passing day, his government is becoming weaker and weaker,” said a senior PML-N leader, requesting anonymity. “The tough economic conditions, the declining rupee, the steep increase in petroleum prices and Imran Khan’s soaring popularity have all rapidly eroded the PML-N’s support base.”

Many within the PML-N are, in fact, questioning the wisdom of staying in power under these circumstances. They recognise that growing political polarisation and uncertainty, and the country’s increasingly tough economic conditions are making the task of managing Pakistan more and more difficult.

Resultantly, the beleaguered Shehbaz government is now fighting on two fronts: a highly rejuvenated PTI on one hand, and growing dissent within the PML-N on the other. Ironically, this dissent is supported and patronised by none other than Nawaz Sharif and his loyalists. And one can see that many within the PML-N, as well as their media supporters, are again turning their guns towards the institutions, including the Pakistan Army and the superior judiciary.

The nervousness in the PML-N camp is evident from the manner the sudden resignations of 11 MNAs belonging to the PTI were accepted as a retaliatory step. The PTI leaders for their part say that such measures hardly make an impact, as its MNAs resigned en bloc as per the decision of the party. According to them, the acceptance of the PTI MNAs’ resignations will only bring the goal of general elections closer.

And as the PML-N and its allies appear to be taking desperate measures, such as launching a smear campaign against the Supreme Court and targeting the Pakistan Army, the PTI’s top leaders say preserving the sanctity of the institutions remains their priority in the larger national interest.

“The Pakistan Army is not an enemy institution,” said a senior PTI leader. “Imran Khan has repeatedly said that he considers the army a much more important institution for the country than even himself. This does not, however, mean that our channels with the Pakistan Army have reopened. Some individuals might be in touch with the establishment, but there is no contact at an official level.”

Another PTI official, who also asked not to be named, said he believes now there must be a lot of rethinking and review of policies, if not outright remedial measures, given the miscalculation the establishment made by allowing the conspiracy against the PTI government to succeed. He continued that this conspiracy has boomeranged, as one can see from the response of the general public, the social and mainstream media and the way the Pakistan Ex-Servicemen‘s Association came out in support of Imran Khan.  “Our main strength,” he added “is the common people. We are banking on their support. And as you can see, the people are responding to Imran Khan — from Karachi to Khyber. He has decisively emerged as the only national level leader, with a following across Pakistan.”

For PTI stalwarts, the real challenge is maintaining the enthusiasm of their supporters until the next elections are held. One year will be a long period to sustain public mobilisation and enthusiasm. That’s why the PTI is pressing for early elections, said one.

As matters stand, it seems that the wind is currently blowing in the PTI’s favour, not just because of the enormous public support they have garnered, but also due to the visible fissures within the PML-N camp. The anti-Shehbaz Sharif lobby within the party wants to pull out of the government and do away with what they call “the baggage of the PTI” sooner rather than later.