Pakistan’s Population Bomb

A look at the causes and problems of the country’s increasing population

Population growth is perhaps the greatest problem faced by the world today. It is known to drive food insecurity, increase emissions, heighten losses in biodiversity, encourage disease emergence and transmission, create water shortages, as well as, place hefty burdens of distribution on all other resources. According to the Commission for the Human Future report, ‘Surviving and Thriving in the 21st Century’, “human population growth at current levels exacerbates all other threats. Its seriousness, and preventability, are not being addressed in any country or internationally.”

Where Pakistan is concerned, the population is growing at an alarming rate. The country’s population is the fifth highest in the world as of 2020, its population growth rate stands at a whopping two percent, it covers a mere 0.59 percent of the Earth’s surface, and 65 percent of the total population of the country is rural. Pakistan faces disproportionately high adverse outcomes of population growth due the density of its population, given the amount of people to liveable area ratio. According to the country’s Population Council’s National Narrative:

“Pakistan’s progress on most health, education, and demographic indicators has slowed down according to the Population Census, 2017 and the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) 2017-18. These trends signify a worsening of existing inequalities and imbalances, threatening the country’s shrinking resource base as well as its future viability and stability. The situation warrants urgent corrective actions at all levels of State and society.”

This is not helped by the fact that the country is expected to see its population double in the next 30 years, while the average doubling time for other South Asian countries is 60 years. Per the Population Council statistics, fertility in Pakistan stands at 3.6 average births per woman, which is twice the levels of Iran and also higher than Saudi Arabia’s average of 2.7.

Meanwhile, the abject poverty faced by the majority of the population, residing in rural areas, means the issue is only heightened as the country cannot ensure basic investment in human development such as health, nutrition, education, and productive skills. “Nearly one fourth of the population lives below the national poverty line and absolute numbers of poor are increasing with population growth,” reads the National Narrative.

Why does it occour?

To make actionable solutions it is imperative to understand why the high fertility driving population growth in Pakistan occours. The reason is not as simple as the perceived unwillingness to plan ones family, and is in fact far more intersectional. According to several reports by private sector and government organisations, a combination of lack of information, access to services, unmet need for family planning and the rural-urban divide are the key push factors towards population growth. The Population Council has found that, large numbers of couples in the country want to space and limit births, but remain unable to do so due to a lack of information, services or both. The unmet need for family planning services – including provision of contraceptives, information regarding harmful and excessive pregnancies, health-risks of over-bearing children and economic factors – stands at 17 percent, according to the Population Demographic Health Survey, 2017-18. Meanwhile, physical distances from delivery points, costs, social barriers, poor quality of services, and associated misperceptions are also leading causes of the lack of use of contraceptives. Furthermore, family pressure, stigma, lack of facilities at Basic Health Units (BHU) and financial constraints, cause millions of women resort to self-induced abortions each year, carried in often unsafe conditions, that impact both maternal and child health. The low public-sector expenditure on health, population and education are causing such incidences to persist.

The Fallout

The rapidly increasing population growth rate projects an increased demand for basic necessities. This means that the country is expected to see a shortage of food, healthcare, educational facilities, jobs and infrastructure, which will put a strain on the national economy and government, which is expected to sustainably provide these services to all citizens. Poor households are, and will continue to be, most affected by this, as poverty is linked with low literacy, high fertility, as well as, high childhood and maternal mortality.

The food insecurity likely to be faced by the country paints a very jarring picture. At present, as many as, 60 percent of the population already lives with food insecurity. According to the National Population and Housing Census, 2017, at least 19 million more houses will be needed at the current population growth rate. When population density increases, land, previously allocated for agriculture, will likely be used for living causing a decrease in food production and making resources even more scarce. Additionally, water shortages are likely to occour at massive scales. The supply of water should hold steady at 191 million acre-feet until 2025. However, the demand for the resource will rise to 274 million acre-feet, leading to a shortage approximately 83 million-acre feet.

Where jobs and education are concerned, the country already falls short of meeting the population’s required employment needs, and education attainment levels are below par. By 2040, 117 million more jobs will be required, a number the country is very unlikely to meet. This will compound on poverty related issues, as well as, lead to a further increase in the brain-drain from the country among the educated middle-class. At present, one out of three children, between the ages of five and 16, is out of school. Among these, 27 percent are male children and 37 percent are female children. By 2040, even at these low-rates of education, 85,000 more primary schools will be needed.

Furthermore, at present, 40 percent of all children under the age of five are stunted, 18 percent are wasted, 29 percent are underweight, and 62 infants per 1,000 living births die before reaching the age of one. However, if contraceptive use rises to 52 percent 140,000 infants would be saved per year. At present 11,000 maternal deaths occour annually, and if contraceptive rates stay stagnant at the present 34 percent then this number is only likely to increase.

What can be done?

The ever optimistic United Nations has claimed that the issue of population growth can be addressed, and the population can be sustainably reduced within the span of decades, but how realistic is that for a nation like Pakistan? Experts claim that it can be done, however, for this to occour some key factors must be addressed.

The first of these is female empowerment. When women and girls are given the right to choose what happens with their bodies and when they to become mothers, fertility rates fall drastically. However, this is not simply providing the illusion of choice when a discussion is presented to them, but one that begins at the earliest stages of their lives. In Pakistan, children are frequently out of school, with girls affected more than boys due to gender inequality. At the first stage, females must be given the freedom to pursue education and careers, economic independence and easy access to sexual and reproductive healthcare.

Furthermore, injustices including, child marriages and gender-based violence must be curbed through both legislation and implementation of the same. Secondly, ensuring access to quality education from as early as the primary level is one of the most effective tools to curb population growth. An increase in education is directly linked to a decrease in fertility. Lastly, it is vital that family planning is promoted beyond slogans, and barriers to obtaining contraception are removed.