Power Politics within PML-N

As Nawaz Sharif loyalists publicly criticize their own govt’s Finance Minister, the power tussle within PML-N is now an open secret

The two Sharifs — Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his elder brother former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif — are quite skilled at playing good cop, bad cop not only with the establishment but the general public as well. Until the recent past, the elder brother was running a campaign targeting the Pakistan Army Chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, while the younger brother was busy cosying up to the establishment. The trick worked. Shehbaz Sharif became the prime minister this April. The same plot appears to be at work again. This time it is for the general public. As inflation is hitting the roof and mobs are up in arms burning their electricity bills on streets, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leaders close to Nawaz Sharif have come down heavily on their own government. They have created an impression as if Nawaz Sharif is unhappy with Shehbaz Sharif’s policies on the economic front.

In recent days, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government has been facing increasing disapproval from within its own party’s ranks. This week, Abid Sher Ali, a PML-N leader from Faisalabad, fired a salvo at his own party’s government, saying: “If the electricity tariff is not revised downwards we will join the protesters against the government; in the present situation we cannot face people in our electoral constituencies.” Abid Sher Ali is a close relative of Nawaz Sharif. A few days earlier, Javed Latif, another vocal PML-N leader, hit Federal Finance Minister Miftah Ismail for what he said was his bad economic management. Latif is a member of what is called the ‘Maryam group’ within the PML-N. The faction consists of party leaders and activists loyal to Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam; they keep their distance from Shehbaz Sharif.

The criticism of Shehbaz Sharif’s government by his own party members could be viewed as a trick to soothe the anger of the PML-N supporters over high inflation, but this also reflects the growing frustration of Nawaz Sharif’s loyalists with his younger brother. For the last few weeks, the frustration has been growing, especially post July when the party lost 16 out of 20 by-elections in its home province Punjab, and the party lost provincial government to Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). Many PML-N leaders consider this was due to steep price-hikes during the tenure of PM Shehbaz Sharif.

The rumours of Nawaz Sharif’s dissatisfaction with his younger brother are galore. Sohail Warraich, a senior journalist who recently met Nawaz Sharif in London, said on a television show that Nawaz Sharif was not satisfied with the work of Shehbaz Sharif and his finance minister Miftah Ismail. The government was so embarrassed that it contacted Nawaz Sharif to remove this impression. Nawaz Sharif obliged and clarified that “negative comments attributed to him about Shehbaz Sharif were misleading and incorrect. He hoped that efforts by his younger brother would bear fruit and he would steer the country out of “the mess created by Imran Khan.”

PM Shehbaz Sharif’s coming to power rested on his submissive approach towards the establishment unlike Nawaz Sharif who conducted an anti-establishment campaign, either himself or through his proxies, from the day corruption cases were instituted against him in 2016. His slogan “Vote ko Izzat Do” (Respect the Vote) gained traction among a section of the general public. He was viewed as a champion of civilian supremacy. Even his critics among liberal and leftist sections of the society admired him for this reason. However, Shehbaz Sharif’s point of view prevailed within the PML-N. A large number of second-tier leadership and influential local notables (so-called ‘electable’ politicians in local parlance) such as Khawaja Asif, Ahsan Iqbal, Saad Rafique, Rana Tanveer etc. threw their weight behind Shehbaz Sharif. The PML-N’s support mainly lies in central and northern districts of Punjab — the main recruiting ground of the civil-military bureaucracy.

Being pragmatic politicians of sorts, a number of PML-N leaders do not want continued confrontation with the establishment. Khawaja Asif confessed on a television show that the public was not ready to come on streets for Nawaz Sharif when he was ousted from power as a result of a court judgement. The PML-N’s politics has largely been dependent on ‘patronage’ culture, dishing out favours to its supporters from the public kitty. The PML-N cannot sustain its popularity for long while in opposition. It needs state resources to feed its support base. Also, many senior PML-N leaders are not willing to accept Maryam Nawaz as Nawaz Sharif’s successor. Chaudhry Nisar openly said so and parted ways from the party. Others like Saad Rafique hinted at this. Maryam may be popular among a section of the PML-N workers and supervise media campaigns from behind the doors through her aides, but she lacks the capacity to run the party organisation at the grass roots. In a male-dominated society, being a woman she faces many constraints. Shehbaz Sharif’s son, Hamza Sharif, holds the strings in Punjab. Succession in the Sharif dynasty may not be smooth.

The loyalists of Nawaz Sharif are unhappy as they complain that Shehbaz Sharif has ignored them while selecting cabinet. He has not inducted people from the Maryam group in his cabinet. He does not invite them in the party’s consultative meetings. More than four months into power, Shehbaz Sharif has not been able to allow Maryam to travel abroad. Being a convict in a corruption case, Maryam is on bail. The judiciary is not playing balls with the powers that be. A major demand of Nawaz Sharif is that the parliament should pass a law that ends his lifetime ineligibility for holding a public office and restricts it to five years. He wants to contest the next general elections in 2023 and become a prime minister for the fourth time. No such step is in sight. So far, the ouster of Imran Khan from the government has benefitted only Shehbaz Sharif who has fulfilled his desire to become the prime minister. Money-laundering cases against Shehbaz Sharif and his son Hamza have been put in cold storage. Law has been passed to undo the accountability. Shehbaz Sharif is enjoying power in Islamabad courtesy his patrons, while Nawaz Sharif is out in the cold in London.  Shehbaz Sharif knows that he has gained power courtesy state institutions and how much he needs to do to keep his elder brother in good humour.

In the present coalition set-up, Nawaz Sharif has gained little. Instead, he seems to have lost appeal in the public as can be witnessed in the overwhelming defeat of his party in the Punjab by-elections and tumultuous crowds Imran Khan has been pulling in his public shows. Strict IMF conditions and high inflation during the past four months of the PML-N government have undermined the party’s vote-bank. The PML-N’s alliance with Asif Zardari — a widely unpopular figure in Punjab — has dented Sharif’s credibility. Nawaz Sharif has lost its anti-establishment narrative, “Vote Ko Izzat Do.” A large number of local leaders are coalescing around younger brother Shehbaz Sharif. The two Sharif brothers may be playing good cop, bad cop for long, but in the process Shehbaz Sharif has occupied more space than what Nawaz Sharif might have wished. It is hard to imagine that Shehbaz Sharif would voluntarily step down to make room for someone else, be it his elder brother. The power struggle within the dynasty will go on.